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Front Office Chat: 12/6/24
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Anthony Franco
3:01
Hey all, hope you've had a good week!
Lots going on so let's get rolling
Gadzooks
3:01
The Cardinals surely aren't serious when they say they want to keep the gang around for 2025, right?
Anthony Franco
3:03
I don't really get it. I understand not wanting to tear it all the way down, and some of it's beyond their control with the players who have no-trade rights, but keeping Helsley if they're not going to make a real effort to add outside pieces just feels like a half measure
Philly A's
3:03
The A's overpaid for Severino, which you guys talked about was the only way they would sign free agents- but will this move the needle for other free agents and teams on their contracts?
Anthony Franco
3:05
The prices for pitching have been pretty strong generally. I do think Severino's an overpay, in part because of the A's circumstances, but it feels like it bodes well for the Pivetta and Manaea types all the same
Jaden Shin
3:05
Question about Kyle Hart and James Naile from KBO League. Im sure that Kyle Hart is a free agent now, with less than a year of MLB service. Let's say that Kyle Hart signs a 2 year deal with any MLB club, will he be an unrestricted free agent after this season? And the season before he came to KBO he was at the Phillies organization (not in the 40 man roster), when the NC Dinos wanted to scout him, does the Phillies organization have any right to veto it?  On the contrary, James Naile was in the Cards 40 man roster and  the KIA Tigers had to pay the Cards a 250k release fee. Are release fees mandatory for KBO/NPB teams to scout a player in the 40 man roster? And can MLB teams can veto it?
Anthony Franco
3:05
They cannot veto. The player is released by his MLB team to pursue the opportunity in the foreign pro league
3:06
Most players who come back build in a clause in their contracts that allow them to get to free agency without reaching six years of service time. That's not a uniform rule though, just dependent on whether they have enough appeal on the market to get the MLB team to agree to it
3:07
We confirmed that Burch Smith would've still been eligible for arbitration even though he's spent time in both Korea and Japan. Didn't matter because the Orioles non-tendered him anyways, but he's the most recent example of a guy who didn't have an out clause despite the foreign experience
Kokonuts
3:08
I believe that the Reds should expect to see a big offensive improvement this year from each of Encarnacion-Strand, Candelario, Friedl, and Benson, as well as moderate offensive improvement from Steer and Fraley.  Too hopeful?
Anthony Franco
3:09
If you're banking on six different players to take steps forward at once, that's probably not happening. I think Fraley is what he is but there's decent reason for optimism about each of the other five individually
3:10
I'm most optimistic on Steer and Friedl (who I think was just never at full strength) of the group
Tony
3:10
Thanks for the chats! Always the highlight of the week. Earlier this week MLB TradeRumors had an interesting discussion on how batting averages have dropped 20 points (league average) over the last ~20 years. On top of that the K% spiked the other way. Given one culprit is velocity, are there any efforts to treat the ball? I seem to remember discussions about the baseball in the Japanese professional leagues being tackier and therefore slower. Am I still in a Turkey hangover?
Anthony Franco
3:11
I've never seen a direct link between the tackier  ball and velocity. There's just not as much pitching depth in Japan and Korea
3:12
Certainly some top-end pitchers who are as good as MLB players, but it drops off a lot more quickly
Bob T
3:12
What would be respectable returns for Ward, Rengifo and Tyler Anderson? I know that Moreno wants to compete in 2025, that just isn’t in the cards. There are way too many holes and what ifs to fill.
Anthony Franco
3:13
I think Ward could net them a back-end starter. Probably need to wait for Rengifo to show better health after the wrist surgery. Anderson's just not very good, would be surprised if anyone took the full salary off their hands
3:14
I share your skepticism about the Angels' chances but that's moot if ownership and the front office aren't willing to retool. They're clearly going for it. I still think there's a shot they move Ward, but it'd need to get them MLB pitching help. They're not going to deal him for prospects
Seiya
3:15
Do you believe the recent report that the Cubs are “determined” to trade Bellinger or Seiya? I can believe it on the Bellinger (and Hoerner) front, but trading Seiya would truly shock me for a number of reasons. He’s their best hitter (who has gotten better each year) and under control for two more seasons. How would they replace him if they’re not signing bats at the top of the market?
Anthony Franco
3:16
I don't doubt the truth of the report -- Joel Sherman's not the type of reporter who makes stuff up -- but I'm with you that trading Suzuki doesn't make much sense
3:17
I get that they've got upper minors outfield talent and it'd be easier to find a taker for Suzuki than Bellinger (if Suzuki's open to waiving the no-trade), but you're right that it'd be a big lineup hit and there's no suggestion they're going to sign a comparable hitter to replace him
3:18
Maybe Suzuki nets them a mid-rotation starter, they use Busch/Bellinger between first base and DH, and Owen Caissie hits the ground running in RF, but that's a lot of ifs.
Spaghetti Marinera
3:18
Per The Seattle Times, the Mariners are “comfortable” letting Ryan Bliss and Dylan Moore play the bulk of second base next year (apparently if they can’t land Nico Hoerner, who comes with his own baggage). Does this seem as defeatist to you as it appears to me?
Anthony Franco
3:19
Not really. I think Bliss can be pretty good
3:21
If they go into the season with Bliss/Moore at second, do nothing at third base, and bring back Justin Turner to DH, that'd be underwhelming. If they stay internal at second base while bringing in some kind of MLB talent at third (which it seems like they'll do), I don't mind it
Guest
3:21
Do You think Luis Robert’s market will pick up after the big names sign and will the Sox move him then?
Anthony Franco
3:22
Nah I expect them to hold him until the deadline. They've got a ton of spending room and this would be selling for pennies on the dollar after the year he had
Balk
3:22
As a Giants fan, do you think they should stay away from certain players with QO? I can see Adames, but not real big on Burnes and the decline. Thoughts on who makes the most sense for the glaring holes on the roster. Thanks for the chat!
Anthony Franco
3:24
I wouldn't be too concerned about the QO. I get that they want to build a better system and are reluctant to decimate a second straight draft, but they've also kinda doubled down on an aging roster with the Chapman extension even though they're probably the fourth-best team in the division
Seems like they're leaning more towards HSK than Adames, which is fine, but they should be in on Burnes or Fried if they're serious about pushing for a Wild Card spot
Grimace
3:25
I heard on a podcast that Alonso would be the most sought after offensive free agent if Soto weren't available. Am I the only one who has zero issue letting him walk? Moving Vientos to first and signing Adames or Bregman for third seems like a net positive.
Anthony Franco
3:26
If you're talking just about hitting production, you can argue for Alonso as the #2 offensive player. But obviously we think Bregman and Adames are going to get a lot more demand overall (as you can see on the Top 50)
3:28
I'd be fine letting him walk if I were the Mets. Vientos had a fantastic year so I've come around on him offensively (I was a skeptic for a long time), but I still don't think he's a long-term third baseman. I'd rather have the superior defensive profile of Bregman or Adames, and they should still have a path to playing time for Mauricio -- although that could also come at second
DD
3:28
For all the talk of my high asking price for Bohm, could you see me packaging him with Suarez and a rookie like Abel to pry Kirby or Gilbert from Seattle?
Anthony Franco
3:29
Still think Seattle would decline that. Abel can't throw strikes and Suarez is down to one control year
Yick
3:30
What is MLBTR's process (generally speaking) for weeding out the constant bad reporting that goes on in the MLB-sphere? If you were to believe everything you see pop up on Reddit and X, Soto would already be a Yankee AND a Red Sox player, and Teoscar Hernandez would have already re-upped with the Dodgers. What do you guys do when you see those reports pop up, up until you green light publishing a post (or not)?
Anthony Franco
3:32
We just ignore the Reddit-type stuff. A dude with 800 X followers saying that he's friends with Juan Soto's cousin isn't going on the site
3:33
There are edge cases where certain reporters have gotten stuff right in the past but have shaky enough track records that we'll hold off until it's confirmed by someone we feel to be more reliable (and retroactively credit the first reporter if it turns out to be correct)
3:35
One thing we'll do to hedge when we feel there's smoke but want to express some level of skepticism is preface the headline with "Report" or something to that effect. But even in those instances, we need some level of familiarity with the person reporting or it's not going on the site
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