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Front Office Chat: 3/17/23
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Dano
4:29
Are there any long-shot options in the minors or majors for the Mets to come up and replace Diaz?  Especially given that most of their pen, if not all, seems to be retreads.
Anthony Franco
4:30
Not going to get call up anyone from Triple-A to step into the closing role. Everybody just gets bumped up a peg, with David Robertson probably getting the ninth inning
4:31
Mets claimed Dennis Santana, who's a hard-throwing grounder specialist with subpar control, off waivers today to factor into the middle relief mix
Guest
4:31
Are there more pitcher injuries earlier in ST than there have been in prior years?
Anthony Franco
4:31
It feels like it but I don't actually know. Haven't seen anyone study this, so it's possible it's just recency bias
The Rangers fan
4:31
Will Dane Dunning of the Rangers be a long relief or go to the farm, he’s having a good spring season
Anthony Franco
4:33
I'd rather start him in long relief at the MLB level. They've already said deGrom and Eovaldi will be handled carefully in the early going. That's probably true of Heaney too, considering he only threw like 85 innings last year. Would be a nice boost to have Dunning available for a couple innings at a time out of the bullpen until injuries pop up and they need him in the rotation again
Rodon Right On
4:33
In Capped sports, especially Football, it's not unusual for teams to rework contracts to lower cap numbers of players.  Are MLB teams allowed to make contract changes (with players' consent of course) for the purpose of lowering their tax liabilities?  If so what techniques are available to doing so. Steve wrote about the Padres extending Hader and maybe saving a Mil but that is an example with an impending free agent.  For example, if the Yankees want to bring someone in at the trade deadline but don't want their first pick to drop 10 spots, can they alter Hicks' contract so instead of 2 years 19 Mil after this year they make it 3 years 21 Mil with a 10 Mil signing bonus?  This would save the yankees 2.5 mil in tax space and net Hicks an extra 2 mil plus give him more upfront. TY
Anthony Franco
4:36
Point of clarification: the tax number is calculated based on the previous contract's average salary regardless of the salary payout, so Hicks' current deal counts for $10MM against the tax the entire time
4:38
As for your question about restructuring to massage the tax hit, you can, yeah. The league has the right to void contracts that it feels are particularly egregious, but they haven't done that with anything yet despite teams obviously stretching contract length (e.g. Harper, Bogaerts, Trea) for exactly this purpose
4:40
The thing you proposed with Hicks would be an edge case but I'm guessing MLB would void it. Tacking on an extra year at $2MM to reduce the AAV from $10MM to $7MM feels too much of a mockery of the rule
4:41
But it's a good question because until MLB actually steps in and vetoes a contract like that, we don't really know what they consider the line. Seems like they're taking a "we'll know real circumvention when we see it" approach that'll eventually have to get defined as teams get more creative doing this kind of thing
Willies here
4:41
With the Yankees in need of starting pitching and thr publicized intent to get Volpe in the lineup (and IFK still around), any chance the Giants can interest Yanks by dangling Alex Wood for Peraza?
Anthony Franco
4:42
I'm sure the Giants would jump at that but I don't think the Yankees would give up a prospect that good for the last year of Wood's contract
4:43
Prospects that good don't get moved for rentals unless it's an elite talent. Wood's a good pitcher but fairly expensive ($12.5MM) and has a lengthy injury history. Peraza would be a non-starter there
Space Needle
4:44
Given that Bubba Thompson's rookie BA wasn't all that bad (.265 BA), but his spring BA is putrid (.207) but with 5 SB in just 32 plate appearances, and that it's likely he'll get a chance as a starter given Rangers' injuries, do you think he has any chance of being Billy Hamilton (.250, 56 SB) or Jarrod Dyson (.260, 30 SB) in their first full year? Or is just going to stink up the joint in April, and be in the minors by May?
Anthony Franco
4:45
More in the latter camp on Thompson. Guys like Hamilton and Dyson put the ball in play a lot more often than he has throughout his career so far
Snoqualmie Falls
4:45
Which often-injured midwesterner is the better bet for 2023: Sonny Gray or Michael Kopech?
Anthony Franco
4:46
I like Kopech a little more than Gray. Think he takes another step forward in his second full season as a starter
Arise, Sir Loin of Beef
4:46
The Mets have a guy named David Robertson. Why is everyone trying to figure out who they can trade for with Diaz down for the year? He's not Diaz, but he's a damn good closer.
Sandy G
4:46
The loss of Edwin Diaz will mean how many fewer Mets' wins? Thanks!
Anthony Franco
4:47
Mets bullpen should still be good, I agree. Robertson's a good closer but obviously you're losing the ability to match him up in the 7th and 8th inning in addition to knocking out the best reliever in the game
4:48
I'd downgrade them like three wins
Cubs
4:48
Do you think more teams should go with a 6-man rotation? The Cubs would seem to be better off protecting some young arms from wear and tear while still benefitting from their talent in the Bigs. Stroman, Steele, Taillon, Smyly, Wesneski, Assad
Anthony Franco
4:49
Yeah I'd be on board with this in general, at least early in the season as guys are still getting built up. Once injuries hit, it could thin to five pretty quickly
4:50
I'd be fine with the Cubs doing it too. Assad would be sixth for me but I buy him as a back-of-the-rotation caliber starter
Paul K
4:50
Might be old news, but as Spring training unfolds, I am liking the Moreno for Varsho (those being the key pieces) trade less and less. Wasn't/isn't Carroll the appropriate comp to be coming the other way given their respective rankings on top prospects lists, esp. if the Jays were including Guriell and perhaps other mid level but quality prospects. While the marketing of Varsho by Toronto is prolific, he is now projecting as a platoon OFer. Can you re-assure that Toronto did not get fleeced?
Anthony Franco
4:51
Carroll had jumped Moreno on basically every prospect list by that point and was awesome in September. The Diamondbacks just weren't doing that
4:52
I don't disagree with your general feel on the trade. I'd rather have six years of Moreno than four of Varsho, who's a good player but probably not a 30-homer guy annually. I liked it more for Arizona than I did for Toronto
4:53
That said, the Jays kind of had to do something with the catchers this winter. It's the one up-the-middle position where there's no real way to slide the player elsewhere on the diamond without losing a huge chunk of his value
4:54
So if Varsho was the most valuable player they could get for one their catchers this offseason -- which seems plausible, considering those guys and Sean Murphy were the top players traded at all -- then I don't mind them doing it, even if they're sacrificing a little bit of value in the abstract
Dave
4:55
Will D’Arnaud be the starting DH.  I could draft him late as my fantasy catcher
Anthony Franco
4:55
Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Jordan Luplow probably all get some reps there too but I'd take d'Arnaud to get the most DH at-bats of anyone on the roster
Schenectady Blue Jays
4:55
Eugenio Suarez seems to be a yo-yo. He hit in the .270s and .280s in his mid-20s, plummetted to the Mendoza Line in his late 20s, and recovered to .236 last year. Why has his BA been so variable, while his power has been relatively steady? Projections of him seem all over the map.
Anthony Franco
4:57
The strikeouts have just piled up over the past four years. I don't know if he consciously changed his approach or if it happened organically, but since 2019, he's hit a ton more fly balls at the expense of his contact skills
4:58
Which gives him a strong floor from a power perspective but can really tank the batting averages. I don't think he'll hit over .230 again this season
Dave
4:58
Considering J. Flaherty's injury history, what can we expect out of him in 2023?
Anthony Franco
5:00
One hell of a question. I'd probably set the O/U on his innings total around 100. Velocity doesn't seem to be quite where it was before all the shoulder issues though. I think he's more of a mid-rotation guy than the 2019 Cy Young contender
Hits Like Rays
5:01
What would the Rays now need to give up to get Bryan Reynolds?  Is it worth it to chase a championship before he hits free agency?
Anthony Franco
5:03
Seems like Pittsburgh's still going for a package headlined by multiple top prospects. If the ask is something like Shane Baz or Taj Bradley, Kyle Manzardo and Vidal Bruján (just speculative), that'd probably be a no for me if I'm Tampa
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