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Front Office Chat: 8/26/22
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Anthony Franco
2:59
Hey everyone, welcome to an unexpectedly crazy busy day!
3:00
Probably will have to keep this one right to an hour since Steve's already struggling with a backlog of write-ups, but we'll see how things look then
Giantsphan
3:00
Yo Anthony!  What do you think about the M’s trying to lock up JRod so early?  This model seems to be working well for the Braves, and the Padres sure hope it works out well with Tatis.  It seems to me that a player like JRod “could” be leaving money on the table if you look at the whole contract over the life of the deal.  But $200MM ain’t chump change, especially with the rumored incentives.  Is it true that only 40-50% of Rookies ever make it all the way to FA?  If so, deals like this potential JRod contract seem like a no-brainer for player and team.  Your thoughts?  Thank you!
GBS42
3:00
I'm guessing there will be a question or two today about the Julio Rodriguez contract. I'm certainly curious about the details, how $210M could grow to $400M+.
Anthony Franco
3:01
Have to start here
3:02
I haven't had a ton of time to really digest the terms, and it's a deal unlike any we've ever seen basically. The dual team/player option thing is becoming more in vogue (Kikuchi, Paxton, Arrieta, etc) but not for early-career extensions like this
3:03
My initial reaction is it's a great deal for Julio. Shatters the record for his service class, gives him more flexibility than the early-career extensions usually do with his ability to kind of override the team option
3:05
At the same time, it's also a no-brainer for the Mariners in my opinion. Dude looks like the face of the franchise and they can keep him around forever now. They'll maybe have a tougher call on the option than the Braves do with Acuna or the Rays do with Wander because it's a longer commitment, but if he's the player he seems to be, it'd be awesome to keep him around
Duffy Scliff
3:05
Are you surprised the Mariners would throw an extension out like they just did to Rodriguez, after what’s happened with Tatis and Franco at the start of their new contracts? Do you think teams are doing this because the closer and further a player gets into arbitration years, the harder it is to keep them?
Anthony Franco
3:06
I think the Rays would still do the Wander deal. He's had a couple injuries but should still be the face of the franchise. Tatis looks more questionable obviously but there's still a chance he comes back as good as he was before and the Padres forget this nightmare season ever happened
3:08
As for the general question, the price definitely goes up the further you get into arbitration, perhaps to the point where the player's no longer willing to do it at all unless you're paying essentially free agent market value, as seems to be the case with Soto. There's obviously an inherent risk but I think teams will continue to do this because they're fully on-board that these kinds of players (top prospects who are immediately awesome big leaguers) are guys who'll join the franchise once every couple decades
busyatwork
3:09
listening to a mets broadcast recently, gary cohen mentioned that if a foul ball touches the netting on the way down that ball is considered out of play.  could myself and three of my strongest friends be permitted to pull the getting back into the stands, thus allowing for more "fair ground" with which to make the catch?  thank you.
Anthony Franco
3:09
Haha this is a hilarious question. I don't know the answer to this -- I'm not convinced there is one -- but my guess would be this is fine?
3:10
I mean, the odds of you guys sitting right were a foul ball is about to brush up against the net are pretty slim, but if it happens, help the team out
Nomahhhhh
3:10
What are some big name players who could be non-tendered this offseason?
Anthony Franco
3:10
Cody Bollinger feels like the obvious one to me
3:11
Let me scan the top arb salaries from this past season
3:12
Luke Voit, Jeimer Candelario, Dom Smith, maybe Gio Urshela?
Prospecting for Gold
3:12
Hey Anthony, thanks for doing this.  Do you folks have any sense of Koudai Senga's performance in Japan this year?  Does it appear that he will be coming over to MLB in 2023?  Are there any other NBO players for whom we should be looking?
Anthony Franco
3:13
Jon Morosi reported a few weeks ago he's planning to explore MLB offers
We'll dig in on Senga and other possible NPB types when we kick off the Top 50 free agent rankings within the next month or so. I'll have a better feel then, since I'm not super familiar with his profile at the moment
3:14
Just based on the NPB production, he feels like a candidate for four years to me. But those evaluations skew heavily towards what the scouts there think, and we haven't been in touch with anyone on that yet
Madag
3:14
What do you think the Astros should do with Verlander and Brantley for next season?
Anthony Franco
3:15
I expect them to make a run at bringing Verlander back while letting Brantley walk
Rickey's limo
3:15
Who's the 2023 Oakland closer: Zach Jackson or Dany Jimenez? And speaking of Oakland, Is James Kaprielian starting for any other team that's over .500?
Anthony Franco
3:15
Kaprielian, no. He's got the first-round pedigree but hasn't shown anything at the MLB level, wouldn't be in a rotation for a contender barring injuries
3:16
Closer? I lean more Jackson over Dany but think they'll just a veteran for a couple million bucks to take the job and hopefully flip at the deadline
GBS42
3:17
NL (and Cardinals) MVP, Goldschmidt or Arenado?
Anthony Franco
3:17
Goldy for me
Guest
3:17
What are the differences in expectations between drafting a high school pitcher versus drafting a college pitcher?
Anthony Franco
3:18
Obviously everything goes on a case-by-case basis, but generally speaking, the college player should get to the majors quicker. He's a few years older, has maybe had the benefit of pro-style coaching at a top school in the SEC or ACC
3:19
High school pitching tends to be a little more boom or bust. Those guys usually have fewer innings on their ledger, so they're bigger injury red flags. Yet to sign out of high school as a top five round pick means you're almost certainly forgoing a D-I scholarship
For you to do that, a team must've made you a strong offer that suggests they're enamored with your upside
3:21
So those guys usually have better raw stuff than the top college pitchers drafted (again, in general, not universal) because if they were just ok, teams wouldn't be motivated enough to buy them out of the college commitment and take on the added injury/proximity risk
SteveM
3:21
Is it inevitable that the Minnesota Twins blow it up, deep re-build. They have been pathetic.
Anthony Franco
3:21
I don't think they'll go that direction, no. They have a fair amount of young MLB-ready talent that has been injured this year (Larnach, Lewis, Kirilloff)
3:22
Between those guys and Miranda, you've already got the kind of upper level position player core you're hoping to come out of a rebuild with. Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda will all be back next season. There's too much talent to tear it all down, even if Correa walks
SteveM
3:22
Jordan Romano is the best closer in the A.L. Yes or No?
Anthony Franco
3:23
Romano's great but I think I'd go Emmanuel Clase and Clay Holmes above him
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