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Front Office Chat: 8/4/23
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Anthony Franco
3:56
Hey everyone, hope you all enjoyed your week!
3:57
Deadline wrap-up chat, let's get rolling
Tony
3:57
Thanks for the chats.  Is nolan Gorman a potential 40 homer guy? Or is there too much swing and miss in his game?
Anthony Franco
3:59
Yeah I think it's more 30-35 because of the whiffs, as you mentioned. In a 600 PA season, he's striking out in about 180 or them and walking like 65 times. That leaves him with about 355 batted balls. To hit 40 homers, he's gotta pop one for about every nine times he makes contact. That's tough to pull off
Ben
4:00
What do you think the likelihood is that the Cubs are able to retain both Bellinger and Candelario heading into 2024? Do you think they will even make an effort to re-sign the former, given the outfield talent they have looming in the minors?
Bellinger
4:00
I think the Cubs will have a 50+% chance of re-signing Bellinger when he reaches free agency. They got him back to his potential, he’s onboard with rotating between CF and 1B, and he seems to have gelled with the team and fans extremely well - and the Cubs now officially see this as their competitive window. Boras won’t sign an extension, but am I crazy that there’s a very legitimate chance that he’s back in 2024 even with PCA and Matt Mervis at AAA?
Anthony Franco
4:02
Candy seems likelier than Bellinger, in large part of the presence of PCA, Alcantara, Mervis as the questions allude to. Bellinger's also the best non-Ohtani position player in the class in my view. Think the bidding goes pretty crazy there (above what Bryant got probably) and wouldn't expect the Cubs to go that far
4:05
Unless he collapses down the stretch, I don't see why they wouldn't make a serious effort to bring Candelario back though. Third base was an issue before they got him. He aligns with the above-average but not star position player talent they've pursued in free agency. They wouldn't get any compensation for losing him (while they'd get a draft choice on Bellinger)
The Rangers fan
4:05
Should the Rangers still persue a bat
Anthony Franco
4:05
Nothing really to be done at this point. They can sign Luke Voit to a minor league deal, I guess
4:06
Moderately surprised they didn't supplement the corner outfield mix but hey, it probably doesn't matter all that much when you go out and get two of the best starting pitchers available to strengthen the run prevention group
Guest
4:06
Mets still go after Ohtani right?  Even if you’re looking ahead to ‘25?
Anthony Franco
4:08
This would be pretty weird messaging if they intended to make a serious run at the top free agent in recent memory (probably ever) who has been pretty forthright about wanting to compete after missing the playoffs in each of his first five MLB seasons
4:10
I'm sure they'll be involved to an extent. I'd be surprised if there weren't a "Mets Involved In Ohtani Market" headline on MLBTR in November, but Cohen's/Eppler's recent comments don't seem like the kind of thing that'll give them a leg up where they're pitching the organization to Ohtani in a few months
Jorge78
4:10
When a team returns a Rule 5 pick do they get their money back?
Anthony Franco
4:10
Half of it back
Draft the player for $100K, send him back for $50K
Gary Mariner
4:11
Will the Mariners pursue truly big bats this off-season?
Anthony Franco
4:12
I'm sure they'll be in on Ohtani but don't think anyone would consider them the favorite going in there. They'd make sense on Matt Chapman or a potential Pete Alonso trade pursuit as well
4:14
There aren't many "truly big bats" out there. Chapman's the #2 or #3 free agent position player and is a better defender than hitter, but I expect Seattle to check in on virtually everyone's on the market. They need offense, Dipoto's been pretty forthright about it, and they'll have to at least take another swing on an acquisition like last year's Teoscar pickup (hopefully with more success)
Adam T
4:14
In the wake of the Mets trading their big money aces, how do these trades affect their luxury tax number for this year and next, especially given the fact that the Mets sent a lot of money the Rangers' way
Cohen
4:14
MLBTR wrote an article this past week saying the Mets were at approximately 237M for luxury tax purposes for next year which is down +\~ 100m.  Does that mean all the money steve is paying down for max and Justin does not count against the Mets cap?
Anthony Franco
4:15
So the money they paid in the trades still counts against the tax bill. The money that Houston/Texas assumed does not
4:16
That's part of the drop in their projected tax number, but the $100MM dip is higher than it'll be in a couple months. Essentially every team has a lower projected '24 payroll than they do in '23
4:19
The Mets have money coming off the books in Carrasco, Eduardo Escobar, Pham, Canha, Robertson. The '24 projections also don't factor in arbitration-eligible players yet. So Pete Alonso's making $14.5MM this year. He counts for nothing right now but is going to tack on like $18-20MM once they settle the arb case. The rest of the class is pretty modest, but guys like Guillorme, Drew Smith, Lucchesi and David Peterson will tack on a few million
Bigger burgers at home
4:20
Who would you keep as your 5th outfielder in NL Roto 5x5, either Mark Canha or Avisail Garcia?  Also, should Jake Burger's home/away splits on home runs (17 of 25 were at home) forecast a power outage with the Fish?
Anthony Franco
4:20
Canha
4:22
I'm not super concerned about the Burger H/R splits. He's got enough power to hit the ball out of anywhere. A lot of the difference in production is that his strikeout rate was 10 percentage points higher on the road than at home
Unless he just loved the batter's eye at Guaranteed Rate Field, that's probably a blip
Cory
4:23
Can’t count the number of articles being written about Orioles missing the opportunity to “go all in” and some go as far to say that this was their time to move pieces because “who knows if they will be in this position next year”? At what point do we stop questioning Mike Elias and just say “Everything Mike Elias has done up to this point has worked, so I trust his process.”? What are your thoughts?
Peter
4:23
Not a question so much as an observation. I've noted some commentators/pundits stating that BAL missed the opportunity to score a SP in trading. My own opinion is that their GM and managed correctly surmised that the O's ascent was, so to speak, premature and that waiting for a more opportune/cost-effective way of building a rotation would present itself. If you build for sustained success, you don't sidetrack for immediate gratification.
Anthony Franco
4:23
Cory and Peter had back-to-back questions preaching patience on the Elias vision
4:25
I think this is mostly right. They got Flaherty, which is more than a lot of the AL contenders did. I wouldn't say they had a great deadline but wouldn't call it any kind of catastrophe either. Probably would've liked another middle reliever to go with Fujinami, I guess
jdf21
4:26
Do you see the Astros going with a 6 man rotation with Verlander and Urquidy back in the fold?
Anthony Franco
4:26
I'd guess they'll selectively skip some Brown/Javier starts to keep those guys fresh as opposed to doing a strict six-man rotation
4:27
But it's the same idea
PaulK
4:27
Is Atkins a average, below average, or above average GM?
Anthony Franco
4:27
(Toronto GM Ross Atkins)
4:29
I don't have a definitive "baseball ops leader ranking" -- can't really do that since I don't know how you'd compare, say, Brian Cashman and Scott Harris -- but I'd guess the Toronto front office would land in the 10-15 range if I were loosely ordering them
4:30
Steve has made the point that they've been really good at identifying which players within the farm system they're willing to deal away. That's an underrated skill for a front office that is a big part of why teams like the Dodgers and Astros have been so consistently successful
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