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Front Office Chat - November 7th, 2025
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Darragh McDonald
10:56
Ahoy there. Anthony is enjoying a well-deserved day off, so I'm stepping in for his chat today. Sorry about the downgrade.
I'll check back at noon Central but feel free to drop questions in advance, as always.
12:59
Hello, everyone.
1:00
What a crazy week. Seven days ago, the Blue Jays were up 3-2 in the World Series. So much has happened since then.
1:01
You probably noticed it's been wild here at MLBTR. Dozens of transactions, surprising hirings, big pieces of original content like our lists of top trade candidates, top free agents, etc. I hope you have been enjoying the ride. The offseason is just getting started.
Dan S.
1:01
MLBTR and seemingly every major outlet seems to have confidence that Cease will get an offer that avoids the 2-year/opt-out pillow contract. What's a better approach from a team perspective, giving him a run-of-the-mill 6/180 contract or going longer and lower AAV, say 8/200 or even 10/220. The idea would be to essentially buy out the rest of his career at an AAV that never becomes an insurmountable burden in any given year but gives him the most guaranteed money. Could even be front-loaded to minimize the burden on the backend or make it easier to cut bait if needed.
Darragh McDonald
1:02
Most teams would prefer to do the short-term, high AAV thing.
1:03
Most long-term free agent signings get less pleasant as the deal goes along and the player gets older. Avoiding those down years is preferable unless a team has significant short-term budget constraints.
1:04
In terms of comparing six years or eight years, six would be preferable for the same reasons. But sometimes, if a player is willing to take the exact same guarantee over an extra year, then it works for the team because they're not spending any extra money but they would lower the AAV hit for tax purposes.
Rockies Fan
1:05
Look I know the hire of Paul DePodesta is not the glowing, sexy hire everyone was looking for in Colorado; but I'll say this: I believe he's the right hire.
How do you feel about the Paul DePodesta signing in Colorado? He's had a major involvement in MLB's transition into analytics. I feel like it's decent signing considering his experience in baseball operations as a whole.
Darragh McDonald
1:05
It's certainly interesting. I will give them that.
1:06
I am willing to give the Rockies some points for going outside the box. They have seemingly acknowledged that they are in a hole and need major changes to dig out of it.
Going for an external hire was a good first step. Hiring a famous analytical guy also perhaps shows that they know they need to improve in that department.
1:07
But it's also hard to know what he can bring to the table after so many years away from the game.
1:08
A very cynical interpretation of the hire is that it just illustrates how the Rockies are still decades behind everyone else. Yes, they finally embraced analytics, but way too late and they hired the famous guy from the book/movie which came out years and years ago.
1:09
I don't want to immediately leap to that cynical side. I'm going to watch as an impartial observer for a while. Perhaps it's savvy, perhaps not. I don't know.
Like I said, the fact that they are signaling that they understand what the problem is, that's a good start.
Bo nose
1:10
it's that time of year when player status changes occur daily. Many are simple transactions but some are more complex and require passing a medical. Is one required when a player exercises an option to stay with a team?
Darragh McDonald
1:10
If a contract is conditional on a physical, that is usually a known clause. That was the case with Matt Strahm, for instance.
M's Fan
1:11
Mariners appear to be putting all their eggs into Naylor's basket. If he becomes to expensive where do the mariners turn for 1b?
Darragh McDonald
1:12
Ryan O'Hearn, Luis Arraez, Rhys Hoskins and Josh Bell will be cheaper free agent options than Naylor.
Lewin Diaz would be a fun one. 50 homers in Korea this year! I hope someone signs him.
1:13
Christian Walker, Triston Casas and Willson Contreras are some speculative trade candidates.
Stearns
1:14
Two Stearns questions:   1. Do you think his plan all along was to have Clay Holmes start one season then replace Diaz as the closer?  2. He has plans to strengthen the defense and curb spending a little but do you think he also has Cohen breathing down his neck on decision making, i.e. bring back Diaz, sign a top-tier starter, trade for Skubal (okay, that one's my fantasy)
Darragh McDonald
1:15
I wouldn't say "plan all along". I doubt they would operate with that kind of certainty. But I do think that front offices like signing these reliever-to-starter conversions because of the flexibility. If it works out, hey, you get a starter for reliever prices. If it doesn't work out, oh well, still a good reliever.
1:16
I don't know where Cohen's breath is in relation to Stearns' neck. I would assume Cohen hired Stearns with a certain level of trust.
Cohen also has other things going on besides baseball, like selling gold toilets.
Stamen
1:17
In thinking about this year's Hot Stove, I keep coming back to the CBA issue and how a potential lock out before the 2027 MLB season might impact this offseason. My initial thought is if the teams have different expectations regarding a lockout, we may see a lot more trades of players with two years of control remaining (e.g., Tarik Skubal). The teams that expect a lockout will want to trade anybody with two years control now so they can get something for what they expect to be a lost 2027 season (the teams not expecting a lockout will look for bargain 2027 players). Your thoughts?
Darragh McDonald
1:18
Skubal is down to one year of control, for the record. He's set to be a free agent after 2026.
But to your broader point, it's possible the impending lockout impacts things, sure.
Last time, it wasn't too bad. There was a huge run of spending prior to the lockout and another big spree right after.
1:19
This time, the vibes are certainly worse, and there seems to be greater fear of missed games in 2027.
I understand that but am personally more optimistic than most, it seems.
1:20
Baseball is on a bit of a heater right now. The pitch clock is increasing popularity, both in terms of attendance and ratings. Game 7 of the 2025 World Series was the most-viewed MLB game since 1991.
A lockout that cuts into games would likely erase all of that. I am hoping the owners are smart enough not to shoot themselves in the foot. That's especially true since Manfred is lining up to do a massive sale of TV rights after 2028.
1:21
But to your specific question about trades of guys controlled through 2027, I think that would only apply to teams not really competing right now.
1:22
Even if Skubal were controlled through 2027, the Tigers wouldn't trade him just because of the potential lockout. He could help them win a World Series in 2026. But for teams like the Cardinals, Twins, Nationals, sure, trade your guys who are controllable for two or three years.
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