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Hoops Rumors Live Chat: 10/18/22
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Luke Adams
12:00
Thanks to everyone who submitted early questions. We'll get underway in just a couple minutes.
Lakers Fan
12:03
do you take the over or under on 38 wins?
Luke Adams
12:04
I'm not super-high on the Lakers this year, but I'll still take the over. I see them finishing around .500 and in the play-in picture.
Trog
12:04
Who are a few surprise camp cuts and which team(s) do you feel they would be the best fit for?
Luke Adams
12:06
There weren't many big surprises among the camp cuts. Most were what we'd been expecting for a while (Kemba for the Pistons, the recently acquired Houston guys for the Thunder, etc.). The three that stuck out to me were:
  1. Isaiah Joe
  2. Jared Butler
  3. Derrick Favors
I thought the Sixers would keep Joe around since they had the roster space to do it. He has already signed with the Thunder, which makes a lot of sense. As Mark Daigneault said yesterday, he fits their timeline and he'll have a much clearer path to a role there than he would have in Philadelphia.
12:08
Butler surprised me because the Jazz were really talking him up after drafting him last year. Every team is obviously high on the players they draft, but Utah's praise for Butler went above and beyond, and it was notable because he was a guy who had been projected to be drafted much higher before some health questions popped up. The fact that they waived him a year later was unexpected and is maybe a red flag. But if he's healthy, I'd like to see a team like Charlotte take a shot on him. The Hornets have an open roster spot and I think they could shift from contending for the playoffs to tanking halfway through the year, opening up some playing time for him.
Some Guy
12:08
Where does Favors go from here? Does he become the veteran bench guy he should've been with the Rockets, or does a contender sign him to back up the frontcourt?
Luke Adams
12:10
As for Favors, I think there will be an opportunity out there for him on a team with title aspirations that's lacking depth in the frontcourt and that might be hit by injuries up front. The Celtics and Nets are two that come to mind immediately, if their backups don't work out.
Dennis
12:10
What is your opinion on not extending Cam Johnson?  I'm actually fine with that since he'll be a restricted free agent and Paul's money come off the book.
Luke Adams
12:12
Are we sure Paul's money is coming off the books next year? His $30.8MM salary is partially guaranteed for $15.8MM, so I think he'd have to take a pretty big step down this season for the Suns to consider moving off him before 2024. Still, I sort of understand the Suns' decision to wait on Johnson until they see what they can get for Crowder (ie. whether or not they take back multiyear salary).
12:14
It's sort of hard to say whether they made a mistake or not, because maybe Johnson's salary demands were unreasonably high. But I do think he'll boost his stock this year and could end up being more expensive as an RFA than he would be if he were extended yesterday.
WannesD
12:14
Woj announced that Favors would have positive trade value. It would have probably increased if his salary could be aggregated with Gordon. Do you understand why Houston did not cut another player?
Luke Adams
12:16
Regardless of what Woj said, I think the return the Thunder got for him and the fact that the Rockets couldn't flip him showed that he didn't have positive trade value (I don't recall Woj's comments, but he may have just been trying to sell the deal from the Rockets' perspective on behalf of a source).
12:17
Being able to aggregate Favors' salary with another player's like Gordon's may have helped, but there aren't many teams willing to take back $30MMish in salary at this time of year. The Lakers with Westbrook may have been one of the only realistic trade partners for Houston, and it seems like they were hanging onto their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks pretty tightly in any Westbrook trade talks they had.
Jeff
12:18
Why is there a narrative that it's a wide open field for the finals this year? The Warriors are returning the same team as last year and have younger players that might be able to contribute more. Every other contender, did very little to improve themselves. You can never project injuries, but I think the Warriors are the favorite and a healthy Bucks or Celtics to come out of the East.
Luke Adams
12:19
The Warriors are a good bet for the Finals, but I wouldn't call them a clear favorite. They lost a lot of role players (GPII, Porter, Bjelica, Lee, Toscano-Anderson) and we don't know yet whether the kids are ready to play big roles. The Green/Poole practice incident also has people questioning whether there's a potential for combustion there, I think.
12:20
I'd also argue that they made it out of the West last year against a pretty weak field. The Grizzlies lacked the experience to make a deep run. The Suns self-combusted. The Mavs didn't have enough beyond Luka. The Nuggets were missing two important players.
12:21
If teams (especially the Nuggets and Clippers) can stay healthy this year, I suspect it'll be a tougher path for the Warriors to even make it to the Finals.
AOL Ted
12:21
wiz blow it up this year? strongly doubt a team whose 3rd best player is daniel gafford has much of a chance to make the play in
Luke Adams
12:23
We're not even four months removed from Beal signing a five-year contract, so it's probably too early to start thinking about blowing it up, but I agree with you that the upside looks pretty limited here, and the Victor Wembanyama/Scoot Henderson factor this year is a real wild card. There may be some middle-of-the-pack teams that decide to nosedive in the second half.
If the Wizards are in that group, the plan would probably be to do a one-year retool and try to contend again in a year, sorta like the Blazers did this year.
Robert s
12:25
Can the clippers finally win it all? They have the deepest roster in the league and can survive the inevitable injuries that happen to every team. I peg them at 56 wins and 1st or 2nd in west but win the chip
Luke Adams
12:26
If Kawhi or Paul George go down, their depth won't help them in the playoffs. But as long as those two guys stay healthy, they can withstand pretty much any other injury. I like their chances a lot this year.
Die Hard White Sox Fan
12:27
Was signing Lonzo Ball as waste for the Bulls since he has been injured?
Luke Adams
12:30
It looked like a pretty savvy move for the first part of last season -- he was arguably their best two-way player (not the best on offense or the best on defense, but one of the few guys who was a major asset on both ends). Maybe the injuries during his time in New Orleans should've been a bigger red flag, but I wouldn't call the signing a waste. He was the right fit and he was healthy at the time of the signing.
Guest
12:30
Seems like Dubs/Clips/Bucks/Celts are finals favorites. Who do you think are the next in line/potential surprises to win it all? Nuggets? Lakers? Nets?
Luke Adams
12:32
Nuggets and Sixers are definitely fun "dark horses" (if we can really call them that) assuming they stay healthy. The Nets and Lakers sort of fall into the same group as the Timberwolves for me -- if everything goes right, the talent is there to be a legitimate title contender, but there's a lot that could go wrong.
12:33
I don't think we should write off the Suns yet either. The vibes haven't been great in Phoenix since the spring, but they were two wins away from a title in 2021, won the most games in the NBA last season, and haven't lost any core players.
WannesD
12:33
Do you expect some big trades to still happen in the next 5 weeks (Crowder, Westbrook,...) or do you think teams will wait to see how the team performs and to have more aggregation options available?
Luke Adams
12:34
Crowder, maybe, if the Suns can find a match with a lottery team that isn't really worried about wins and losses. Since he's away from the team, they'll be motivated to make a deal sooner rather than later.
12:35
A Westbrook trade will probably take longer. The Lakers will want to give it some time to see if he can boost his value at all, and any in-season deal where $47MM is going one way won't come together super quickly.
Trog
12:35
What do you predict to veterans who did not get signed to rosters? (Ex: Aldridge, Millsap, Rondo, etc.) Do they fade into retirement or wait for an injury/when 10 day contracts become an option later in the season?
Luke Adams
12:38
I could see Aldridge calling it a career -- he has had some health scares and has already retired once. I'd be surprised if the others (I'd add Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard to this group) don't end up on a roster at some point. Some guys on non-guaranteed contracts will get cut, injuries will happen, and opportunities will open up.
D
12:39
Luke: When the inevitable day comes, who replaces Pat Riley, Eric Spoelstra perhaps?
Luke Adams
12:41
Good question. It's definitely easier to imagine the Heat staying in-house than hiring an "outsider," so Spoelstra is a good candidate. He'd be following in Riley's footsteps by making the jump from the sidelines to the front office. I also wouldn't overlook Adam Simon, who has been in the organization since the mid-90s, consistently draws interest from rival teams, and has always stuck with the Heat.
Dan’l
12:41
Considering the potential talent at the top of the draft, what lengths may teams go to improve lottery odds? Will it result in more or less transactions?
Luke Adams
12:43
As the editor of a website focused on player movement, I'd like to think that more tanking teams will mean more transactions, with clubs that wouldn't necessarily have been sellers in the last couple years trading away useful veterans in order to boost their lottery chances. The worst-case scenario, of course, would be that the race to the bottom just results in a bunch more phantom injuries, with stars sitting for weeks at a time due to a "sore knee" or something.
Guest
12:43
Klay Thompson for Paul George who says No?
Luke Adams
12:46
Maybe both teams, but the Clippers probably say no first. George was the more valuable player when they both were fully healthy and looks to me like a safer bet to recapture his old form, based on the types of injuries both players had.
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