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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! It's a very chilly day here in Brooklyn (21 degrees) with the snow piled high on the curb. I think we got 10-12" on Sunday. My basement office is cold enough to hang meat, to borrow a phrase from the late, great voice of the Utah Jazz, Hot Rod Hundley.
12:02
Yesterday I published the final article of this year's Hall of Fame election cycle, my look at the next five elections. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/peering-into-the-crystal-ball-the-next-fiv...
12:03
For the first time, I went back and audited my own performance at this exercise, which has always been more art than science. Last week of course I had the Hall of Fame results (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/centers-of-attention-carlos-beltan-and-and...) and the candidate-by-candidate breakdown (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2026-...)
12:04
Finally, I'm one of four FanGraphs writers nominated for a SABR Analytics Conference Research Award. You can vote here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-sabr-analytics-conference-research-aw...
Carter
12:04
Hi Jay! Hope all is well and thank you for standing up for Minnesota.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
Gotta stand up for what's right! Melt ICE

And now, on with the show
CubsFan52
12:05
Has there been any effect of the looming lockout threat on contract details in the recent flurrry of off-season transactions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
I don't have a big-picture grasp of this yet but it feels like some of the salary structures and timing of opt-outs may be linked to the possibility of the lockout. Probably something to dig into over the next few weeks as free agent season wraps up
Mr. Burrito
12:07
Your argument for Russell Martin in the HOF made me think. I still don’t agree (as much as I love Martin) but I wonder if there are any earlier catchers who might warrant a second or third look. Gene Tenace? Elston Howard? John Rosboro? I’m not arguing any of them should be in the Hall, but their cases might look different in a modern light…
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Unfortunately we don't have any framing info on those guys. We do — or did — have some publicly-available info regarding 1988-2007 framing at Baseball Prospectus, the earlier date marking the start of the pitch-count era; the accounting had to do with Called Strikes Above Average in a WYWO model. Pre-pitch count we might at least be able to try capturing called strikeouts above average in the same way, but given the various bottlenecks in the Era Committee process and the fact that the likes of Russell Martin and Brian McCann didn't get enough love from the BBWAA voters to remain on the ballot, I don't think it would have any impact on bygone candidates. I think the coming candidacies of Buster Posey and Yadier Molina might at least get more voters thinking about the data but I think we've got little chance of working backwards
Johnson
12:11
We know there’s going to be a lockout next year and sounds like a real chance the entire season is canceled… do you think there is a chance more than 1 season is missed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
To hell with this doomerism. Yes, there will probably be a lockout. Yes, the owners will try to implement a salary cap. That's about all we know, the rest is just spiraling. If you have anxiety about it as a fan, just think about what those of us who make our living covering baseball have to endure.
12:13
You're just feeding the owners' narrative if you *assume* there will be a season cancelled.
Tori Kland
12:13
MLB expansion anytime soon? Saw a report today the league wants 36 teams by 2034…? I dunno
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
Nothing is going to happen before the CBA battle
Yeven Malaj
12:14
Why do the Yankees have no faith in Jasson Dominguez? Makes no sense to me at all
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
he really didn't handle the transition to left field — which in Yankee Stadium involves covering an oversized space well, with -9 FRV and -7 DS in 793 innings. His best shot at a clear path to playing time was if Grisham didn't accept the QO, but he did, so it looks like Dominguez will have to spend the season as a fourth OF and take advantage of the opportunities as they arise.
Guest
12:17
Thinking back to the Crowdsource ballot: is there a certain level of crowd vote support that would make you consider voting for a player you normally wouldn't have? More broadly: since the Hall is for fans, are there ways in which you try to consider the will of fans when voting? Have there been players that you voted for that may not have measured up for you personally, but that you voted for partly because of their wide popularity?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
I think that factored into the equation with Félix Hernández, who got 43% in our 2025 crowdsource, more than 2x his actual share. My own reckoning, JAWS and otherwise, has him short and my support is soft, but  I do think the rolling WAR stuff and the Cy Young support stuff has had an impact upon my thinking, as has the wider support of the electorate and the readers.
12:21
Again, I don't think he'll progress to 75% as quickly as your normal candidate getting to 46% in 2 cycles would, but the younger voters do seem very keen on him, and the electorate will continue to turn over
12:22
Lunch arrived while typing that answer, bear with me for a few minutes as I get my eat on.
matty25
12:23
With Peralta being traded, does Chad Patrick have a full time spot in the Brewers rotation now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I'd imagine so based on last year's strong debut. RosterResource has him in there as the #4, not that the designation means much at this juncture
Cub Fan and Bud Man
12:25
Hi Jerry, What's your take on Thurman Munson, I feel strongly he is the missing piece to his 1970s peers, being in and if Buster goes in so should Thruman.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
I've been making Munson/Posey comparisons for more than half a decade in terms of the way they checked off the major accomplishments (ROY, MVP, GG, multiple championships) in a shortened career. Wrote about his HOF case here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/thurman-munsons-case-for-cooperstown/
12:28
if the nadir of Bill James' career is his stuff about Dick Allen, his crass bullshit about Thurman Munson is near the bottom too
Lord Thunder
12:30
Over or under on Vientos getting 200 ABs with the Mets this season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Given the non-standard roster construction with Polanco at first base, i think Vientos can get a look if he shows up and looks good at 1B. But I also think he's a trade waiting to happen. So i'll take the under on 200 with the Mets and the over on 200 in the majors.
krustybuckets_
12:32
At this point does it make the most sense for the cardinals to hang on to Brendan Donovan and hope he recoups some value before dealing him in season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
What value did he lose? His 119 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR were right in line with his previous career mark, compressed into 3/4 of a season due to injuries
not the lunch guy
12:33
We're starting to get into retirements for players who had some semblance of peak season during Covid, how much do you think that'll affect them? Specifically talking about Yu Darvish here, on pace for a 7ish WAR Cy Young season that year, though obviously in a shorter time frame.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Everybody lost 102 games to the shortened season, and it's a bummer Yu Darvish didn't win the NL Cy Young that year, but there's nothing that's gonna change that. He didn't do enough stateside to have a real shot at the Hall of Fame, so I don't think lamenting a few lost WAR makes a ton of sense, and when it comes to other candidates... look, they're not gonna get serious HOF consideration unless they had a bunch of great seasons, so losing most of one to a pandemic probably isn't going to be what holds them back. José Ramírez — to cite one player building a HOF case who's in this situation — is gonna be fine.
Mitchell S
12:38
Are most teams just waiting for the new tv media contracts in 2028 to make moves? Feels like it’s really just a handful of teams signing guys these last few years
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
There's been a ton of uncertainty within the industry in recent years due to the unsettled TV contract situation, first with the collapse of the Diamond Sports Group and now the FanDuel group. That's had an impact on some teams' payrolls, for sure, but I don't think it's "Most"
Guest
12:41
do you think Delgado or Stieb ever get in, or will Vlad be the first Jay's HOF (All my homies hate Alomar)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Stieb is in no-man's land as a short-career one-and-done hoping for some love from a committee that focuses primarily on career milestones and not peak stuff. Delgado, despite this year's strong EC showing, probably isn't going to get in unless the Hall stacks the deck even further. Vladito is a long time to wait, but I don't see any Blue Jay cutting the line right now.
Insert Witty Name Here
12:43
The number of CF’s in the hall was shockingly low. But I asked Ben yesterday about it and he said that there are some who are classified as another position that they played later on. Any names stick out that could be labeled a CF that aren’t?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
I wouldn't call it shockingly low. In the JAWS set — which is to say where they accrued the most value, not necessarily the most games  – there are now 21 CF, 21 LF, and 30 RF. By the Hall's count, including Negro Leagues/Black baseball, it's 23 LF, 26 CF (including 6 Negro Lgs/BB), and 29 RF.
12:47
Offhand I don't see anyone on the Hall list that i think of more in a corner.
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