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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
or vice versa, but I don't have time to pore over it closely during a chat
12 to 6
12:48
jay, thanks for chatting. while i don't like the "if this, then that" argument for the hall, if andruw jones is in, doesn't that improve the argument for torii hunter? i personally wouldn't give either my vote (y'know, if i had one), but i think there's a legit argument that hunter's sustained production is "of value" to andruw's more compressed peaks.

for what it's worth, lofton should have been in before either.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Hunter was a visually impressive fielder but unlike Jones, that impression isn't supported by the metrics; they're like 200 fielding runs apart, and even if that's off by 50 it wouldn't change anything.

On the subject of compressed vs. sustained, it's actually the higher peak that's more valuable because those high-value seasons, which can affect whether you make the playoffs or not, are harder to come by. That's one of the reasons that peak seasons are effectively double-counted in JAWS.
TameImp
12:51
Is there an expectation that these high dollar, short term contracts will have less dead money on them then the longer deals? Or is the idea being able to time a luxury tax dip?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
The variety of contract structures has a lot to do with circumstances that differ from team to team and player to player. Luxury taxes, income taxes, frontloads, backloads, deferrals — it's all about both sides trying to handle things in ways that work better for them.
12:54
sometimes it's about taking the tax hit and avoiding the long-term dead money. Sometimes it's about spreading the money out over as long a timeline as possible to avoid the luxury tax or at least make it easier to stay off a higher tier.
12 to 6
12:55
vis a vis the dodger rotation, which is chokablock with options is it safe to presume that doc and friedman will opt for a lengthened, seven-man/skip start, rotation for the first half (if not the entire year) given the burdens undertaken by yama last year (and for team japan) and the overall injury risk? yama, snell, glasnow, sheehan, ohtani, sasaki, ryan (who has looked incredible in rehab, supposedly) should all be getting reps to start the year, no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
I don't see them going to a 7-man rotation. I imagine they'll start Ryan in the minors for rehab purposes, slow walk Yamamoto in the spring a bit, use Sheehan and Knack to adjust to the veterans' other needs, and so on. the one thing you can say with certainty in late January is that you have no idea how many of those guys are going to be available as of March 25 or July 25 or September 25 because somebody is going to get hurt.
War2D2
12:58
Hi Jay! Thanks for all you do! I’ve heard essentially zero rumblings on where Framber winds up. It’s two weeks from pitchers and catchers, do you think he winds up signing a short-term, high-AAV  “pillow” deal WITH opt-outs like Bregman signed with the BoSox, and takes another crack at it next season? If he does, where do you think he winds up? I’m obviously biased in thinking he’d look good in Cubs blue, but there’s a half-dozen teams that could use him.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Framber: obviously going to be a Dodger.
OK, I kid
12:59
I still think Baltimore is his most likely destination and that he'll get something that has an opt-out rather than go for a true pillow contract.
James
1:00
Regarding the Phillies offseason, do you think they should have signed Bader instead of Garcia? Their history of one-year bounceback candidate signings is, um, not good. Love your HoF writing, it really helps to get through a long winter!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Thanks for the kind words. Bader made much more sense for the Phillies IMO, especially because he did well for them after being traded and because their CF situation is a little unsettled. I don't think Eric Longehagen is sold on Justin Crawford as a center fielder, at least. But as you saw, he got a multiyear deal and Garcia just a one-year, and i'm sure that probably had something to do with the way things shook out
Bog
1:03
When I picture you in my head I just see Paul F Tompkins. Is that about right? Do you own a purple suit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Hmm, flattered but I'm not nearly as flashy a dresser as PFT. Most of what I wear is blue, black, grey, black, blue, or grey. Sometimes with some gray thrown in there. I wear a lot of Western shirts with the snaps, he tends towards louder colors. Also our mustaches are different, not that anyone has to choose whose is better.
TameImp
1:05
Bill Freehan seems like the obvious second look option for catcher. Somewhat meh stats but 11x all star should matter
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
I've been beating this drum since before he died (he's got a blurb in the Casebook) but here's my tribute when he passed https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-bill-freehan-the-thinking-mans...
johnny5alive
1:06
It was a weak ballot of newcomers, but wright and pedroia made perhaps unexpected bumps.  They are still a long ways away, but in your 5 year prediction, you see Pedroia maybe finally getting in.  No shot for Wright?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
The Pedroia pick was a dart throw — I should have added the caveat so it read "Most Likely to be Elected (which isn't to say it's likely)" or something like that —  but it was based on several things: he made a stronger start on the ballot and is ahead despite having been on for fewer years. he's got 2 championships, an MVP award, and a ROY as well — Wright has none of that — and he has 2x as many Gold Gloves (4 to 2). The Hall of Fame Monitor gives him an edge (94-74) and he's a couple points ahead in WAR and JAWS. I loved Wright as a player but I don't see anywhere that he's got a real advantage over Pedroia in a Hall comparison.
Guest
1:10
Do you think Andruw Jones getting into the HoF and Felix doing well changes the outlook on other players that fell off in their 30s? Longoria, Stanton, etc
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
Career length and achievements are still the primary driver of Hall voting, and while Andruw faded out, he still played 17 seasons and racked up 8664 PA. That's not really a short career. Stanton's shot at the Hall will be driven by whether or not he reaches 500 homers. Longoria, as noted in yesterday's piece, is a close-but-no-cigar guy IMO.
War2D2
1:13
I may be a Pollyanna about the “pending” lockout, but I think at most they lose a week or two of spring training. Baseball is a money machine, and the owners aren’t going to turn that machine off. And small market guys like Fisher, who would ostensibly benefit the most from a cap, have an incredibly high percentage of their net worth tied to their club, and have existing investments leveraged against the club. If the season does get canceled then the A’s almost certainly don’t complete the move to LV. The Rays don’t get a stadium. There’s no expansion to Portland, NC,  Montreal, whatever. The players have a lot to lose, sure, but the owners aren’t exactly bulletproof. The top five or so teams are lukewarm on a cap, and peeling off enough of the over-leveraged guys that need a season to happen to keep cash flow positive shouldn’t be impossible for the union. Again, maybe I’m rosy about this because everything else is so bleak and I need baseball to keep me sane, but that’s where I’m at.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
I think this is a pretty sane take, thanks.
Andy
1:14
Have you ever considered doing a crowdsourced 5-year crystal ball? It might be interesting to see how our expectations compare to yours.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
interesting idea but not sure how to wrangle it.
Andy
1:15
In Eric's chat last week, he suggested that the owners want to get rid of high school players in the draft so that there aren't any 19-20 year old debuts (more like 21-22). If that were to happen, do you think HOF voters would eventually adjust their standards, or would it result in a reduced number of players making it to the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
for awhile probably more the latter. But the MLBPA is never going to go for preventing 19/20 from debuting.
Guest
1:16
Is there any hope to get Lou Whitaker into the HOF?  Sad the guy wasn't even part of the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era ballot.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
I believe that with Bonds, Clemens, and Sheffield out of circulation for 2029 ballot he finally gets another look, but ... it's still an uphill battle from there.
Felix
1:17
In your five-year take, you mentioned the possibility of Wright, Pedroia, and Rollins gaining momentum, and even predicted Pedroia's election.  Do you think these candidates are all pretty closely linked?  Is the thought that Utley and Posey's inductions will have a trickle-down effect?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
I think there are various coattails to be ridden in terms of both shorter-career guys and double-play partners... but there's also something of a disappearing middle class of HOF candidates right now. You have obvious first-ballot guys and some with some slow growth potential but the accelerated first-year elections have left us short of guys who are gonna get in in 2-5 years, and it's going to take some mold-breaking for some of these guys to get in.

Interesting observation from Anthony Calamis of the Tracker team:

"I think it’s fascinating that Beltrán was the first player elected on ballots 2-5 since Vlad and Hoffman in 2018, and something to keep in mind the next 5 years. Utley should become the second. From 2011–18 you saw Alomar, Larkin, Biggio, Piazza, Vlad, and Hoffman elected ballots 2-5 then 2019-25 nobody"
Hayden
1:23
What should Boston do about its OF logjam? It’s made sense for months to trade Duran or Abreu for a righty bat but we’re getting close to spring training.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
There's still time to make a trade and I suspect we'll see one of those two guys dealt. More likely Abreu, I think, since they seemed to be close to doing so at the deadline.
Tacoby Bellsbury
1:25
What's the most interesting new (or new to you) music you've listened to lately?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
ooh fun question. Friends put me on to Sharp Pins and Lifeguard, both the brainchild of a 20ish kid named Kai Slater, and that's been fun. Looking forward to new albums by Dry Cleaning and the Paranoid Style, the hyperliterate band of a music/sports/culture writer named Elizabeth Nelson.
Wrights_back
1:28
I don't know much about baseball, just like I don't know much about politics.   I don't get paid to write about baseball (natch) - or politics.  
But if I were paid to write about baseball, I would write about baseball and not assume to share my opinions about things I really don't know much about.

I believe the term is epistemological modesty.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
Then start your own site and share your limited opinions there. If you don't like me expressing solidarity with the people of Minneapolis and saying "Melt ICE," then you shouldn't be reading me anywhere because I'm not going to let you stop thinking about the rest of the world once in awhile.
Mo's bowtie
1:30
apologies on a likely repeated question but with beltran and jones making it, will/can that improve edmonds chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
Discussed this on a recent podcast with the great Bernie Miklasz on KMOX last week https://www.audacy.com/podcast/gashouse-gang-68510/episodes/the-gashou...
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