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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
A one-and-done player is in no-man's land when it comes to getting another look on the Era Committee ballot. It's just a very difficult uphill climb to get noticed there, especially if you don't have big career numbers (Edmonds has less than 2,000 hits, for example), and it doesn't help that another one-and-done with better career number (in terms of hits and WAR, at least) in Kenny Lofton is also in the same boat.
1:34
i'd say the elections of Beltrán and Jones may improve Edmonds' odds, but not radically.
Matt VW
1:34
Machado, J-Ram, and Arenado are currently in a virtual tie for JAWS. Which of the three is likeliest to make the Hall and whos's the likeliest to end up on the outside looking in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:35
Ramirez most likely, Machado likely, Arenado probably but his offensive decline runs the risk of making him the 3B equivalent of Andruw.

I still think all 3 get in via the writers
Hundreds, possibly thousands
1:37
Of the currently early-30s players who currently seem on track to retire with very good, but probably not HOF careers (eg Bregman, Seager, Correa, Ketel Marte, maybe Trea Turner at the top of this group), are there any that you feel better about aging well and strengthening their cases/separating themselves from the pack?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
Seager, with two World Series MVP awards and the fact that he can f'ng rake, is the one I think has the best chance because his bat would still play at 1B or DH or whatever.
War2D2
1:39
As a disinterested third party the Phillies seem like they’re in trouble to me. They’re getting old, they have basically no outfield, and between Schwarbs, Wheeler, Harper, and Turner they’re on the hook for most of a billion dollars that looks like it’ll mostly be dead money in a couple years. I love Dombrowski when he’s got the horses and he’s going for it, he’s one of the most fun POBOs on the planet, but this really has the stink of late-era Miggy Tigers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
This is a very Dombrowski production, for sure.
Not a pirates fan
1:39
What are Cutch’s hall of fame odds if this is the end? ~50 WAR decent counting stats and a 5 year stretch where he was arguably the best player in the National League…
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
Extremely low. very cool player for awhile but he's gonna end up with a JAWS short of 45, and hit and homer totals that are solid but don't read as HOF-caliber.
Raking Pirate
1:42
When I think of Bobby Abreu I also think of Brian Giles and how dominant he was offensively with a similar profile minus the speed.  How close was Giles to being a serious candidate for the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:45
Great player for a time but fell short of 2,000 hits (1897) in a shortish career and landed on the ballot at the wrong time (2015), that with an on-camera domestic violence incident on his rap sheet as well.
IOW his candidacy was DOA
mike
1:45
Please post more band recs on bsky (or here). thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
let's make a point of me doing a music recs/question going forward.
War2D2
1:46
FWIW I am glad you share your political takes and beliefs, just as I was happy and encouraged when I came across Kole Calhoun’s and Jason Kipnis’s Insta posts about Minnesota. I have always tended toward despair in most facets of life, probably as a result of being a lifelong Cubs fan. Seeing people that I respect (even, or especially, in venues unrelated to politics) voice opinions that show a respect for basic humanity, a respect for personal freedoms, a respect for community, and a respect for the tenets that the United States was ostensibly founded on will always encourage and sustain me. Keep it up.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
Thank you!
Alby
1:46
How much expertise in politics does it take to say "Stop mistreating and slaughtering innocent people?"
JP
1:47
Lifetime Jays fan who grew up watching Delgado rake, albeit during steroid years so it seemed human.  It was not; he could hit .330 with extreme power.  He was a beast on a team where he was easily pitched around most of his career.  Do you think he makes it now that Beltran and Jones got the call?  Fun fact.  He was listed as a catcher as a prospect.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:47
He was primarily a catcher from 1989-94, including in his major league debut https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL199310010.shtml
1:49
Delgado did surprisingly well (9/16 votes) on the recent Era Committee ballot but that's because the process was well set up to put thumbs in the eyes of Bonds, Clemens, and Sheffield. I don't think that's a replicable showing that he can build upon substantially when surrounded by a different set of candidates
1:50
Ok folks, that's it from me this week. Thanks so much for stopping by, tip your waiters, bartenders, and delivery folks, and look out for one another.
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