JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 1/28/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 1/28/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:46

No. They'll remember the consistency and the World Series grand slam. nobody thinks about team payrolls when voting for a superstar in a Hall of Fame context.

Dancing Dan McGrew

12:47

Suppose Tatis goes on to have a hall of fame career, does his PED suspension hinder him or would it be so far in the rearview mirror that it's a minor issue?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

we're just going to have to wait about 20 years to find out. I always say "Never and forever are very long times" when it comes to Hall of Fame elections but somebody else who tested positive and got suspended is probably going to have to set the precedent

12:49

at the very least, if an Era Committee elects A-Rod or Manny, for example, then maybe there's a precedent in place.

Pythagoras

12:50

Is Cal Raleigh on your HOF radar at all?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

You can see the Big Dumper from space without a radar but he's got 13.9 fWAR through age 27, which ain't a lot at a position where guys tend to wear out.

WinTwins0410

12:53

Jay, I've a question about Eras committees. Feels like we've more or less seen enough data from committees to understand that one of the things that committees -- even as their compositions change, cycle to cycle -- must seriously consider is...how a guy did last time with the committee. Doesn't that bode well for Tommy John in 3 yrs? TJ finally broke out of the pack this year. Looking at committee votes in recent years, most guys who break out don't fall back later into the face-saving "fewer than X votes" category. It's happened to several deceased guys like Bill Dahlen (sadly, I fear that few alive care about Dahlen), Danny Murtaugh and Maury Wills, plus living guys Dave Concepcion & now Steve Garvey. But in general, it seems like once a guy breaks out of the pack with a committee, it's often inevitable that he'll eventually be elected by a future committee. For TJ, it's a data point of 1, and I realize Lou Piniella also has broken out but not gotten across the goal line yet. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

Unless you're a near-miss, it's actually pretty inconsistent from election to election because the format, competition, and voter panel changes

12:55

You're right that sometimes they break out of the "fewer than X votes" and don't go back, but I've never studied it closely to see who does — often those guys don't get a second shot.

Patrick

12:55

Did you know Cole Hamels's #1 Comp (Similarity Score) on bbref is Felix? And Felix's #1 is Hamels?!?! weird!

Jay Jaffe

12:56

As I think I wrote somewhere, they have some pretty obvious top-line similarities in terms of basic stats.

Ryan

12:56

Jay, to me Blake Snell is like a Brett Saberhagen or Corey Kluber with 2 Cy Young’s but not a Hall of Famer. If he would win a 3rd does that change the conversation? Or is this magical thinking in the vain of is Nick Markakis a Hall of Famer if he got to 3000 hits.

Jay Jaffe

1:00

Saberhagen had a much more substantial career than Snell or Kluber, finishing with 58.9 WAR — more than Snell (23.4) and Kluber (34.0) combined! Also the only one of the three with a World Series MVP.

I do think a third Cy for Snell would at least make him an interesting and perhaps groundbreaking candidate, but... I want to see it happen before I start worrying about what it means

Corey seager

1:02

Do you think he’s on the HOF path? He seems a little shy by JAWS but I imagine the playoff performances will help

Jay Jaffe

1:03

There's a lot of slack in Seager's line (36.8 career WAR/32.7 WAR 7/34.8 JAWS) in that three of his seven best seasons are less than 4.0 WAR but the guy has got to stay on the field

Reds Enjoyer

1:05

Do you know off the top of your head what year (or decade) in Major League history saw the most future hall of famers active at the same time?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

I believe it's 53 from 1930, not including Negro Leagues players

1:09

This graph is a couple years old but there is a very high concentration of Hall of Famers per team per year (and in total) in the late 20s and early 30s. Negro Leagues adds to that

Matt

1:09

Hey Jay, wanted to ask the obvious question: Sammy Sosa is now in the Cubs HOF. Is his next stop Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Maybe if he drives there. He's not getting in anytime soon, I'm not even sure he gets on the upcoming Era ballot (didn't last time) given his meager showing on the writers' ballot

I am the Walrus

1:10

If Buster Posey is a hall of famer (and it seems likely that he will be), then where is the love for Thurman Munson? Their old school and new school stats plus awards and honors (per BRef) are very similar.

Jay Jaffe

1:10

You're preaching to the choir on that one. reasonably similar pattern to their careers aside from the obvious tragedy

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

1:10

All the fans clamoring for a salary cap are just plain wrong.

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Very. That MLBTR poll showing the % of fans who would be willing to sacrifice a season for the sake of getting a salary cap is just horrifying but <broad gesture at the current hellscape> we've seen people gleefully vote against their own self-interest if they feel like somebody somewhere is getting a better deal than them

Nick Z

1:14

Who would be the Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Young, & Mathewson of Sandwiches?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

https://www.delicatusseattle.com/ I haven't been to this place in 5 years and think about it regularly

Alec

1:16

Any fun HoF swings you're willing to take in terms of a current player who may not currently be on track / at the necessary thresholds for induction but you think will improve enough over the rest of their career to reach the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Jackson Merrill doing what he did at age 21 is super impressive in terms of having a chance Hallwise

1:17

Likewise Jackson Chourio at 20.

Patrick

1:18

You've mentioned how tough it will be for players of certain eras to even get on a Veterans Committee ballot. Given that, does Edmonds have any chance at the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

i wouldn't hold my breath. If Lofton can't get on a ballot with his big career numbers, Edmonds aint' getting on one anytime soon either.

Mike

1:19

Does Chappy have a long shot if he miraculously replicates his 2024 season a couple times over the length of his contract?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Yeah I'd say if he puts up a couple more 7.1 WAR seasons, which would give him 5 of at least 7.0, he'd be a serious contender for Cooperstown. As it is, even one such season would put his WAR7 above 40, a strong indicator of future election

Broken Bat

1:20

Honest question, do you prefer to limit your responses to HOF area or is any baseball topic in your sphere? Fine either way, just wanting to know for future questions.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Any non-fantasy baseball topic is in my sphere but as we're in the aftermath of HOF season I'm getting mainly HOF-flavored questions today

Jim Mccormick

1:21

Jay will I ever get in the HOF? I've been dead for 106 years but my Jaw 76.2

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Doubt it. The structure of the Era Committees is such that you're competing with everybody from Negro Leagues players to Tommy John and Luis Tiant just for ballot space. There's little call to put another ancient dead white pitcher in the Hall especially one who thrived when the rules were so different.

Cat Stevens Singing "Father and Son"

1:24

Looking at prospect lists I saw a fair number of sons-of-former-major-leaguers. It caused me to look up the fact that Larry and Lee Mazzei are the only father-son duo in the HOF. Care to pick a year in which we'll have our first father-son player duo elected to the HOF? I'll go out on a limb and say 2043 Vladito gets in.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I think you mean Larry and Lee MacPhail. If Vladito is going to make it he's gonna have to start putting up some serious numbers on a consistent basis but... he's probably the best bet for awhile. It ain't Cavan Biggio.

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