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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –1/28/25
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EonADS
1:26
My question is, since we're pretty likely to see a change in the outlook on pitchers within the next few years, how much of a change in standard should we expect? Does it elevate a guy like Hamels or King Felix enough to get in? Or is it more like Greinke, Scherzer, and that tier getting a firmer, easier entry?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
I don't think anyone really knows where this is going, and one problem is that once you even get down to the tier where Hamels is, there are a lot of statistically similar pitchers in terms of top-line numbers
1:30
As i said when doing a deep dive on Corey Kluber a year ago, "The crux of the whole HOF starting pitcher standards situation is that if we decide a run like Kluber's 2014–18 is worthy of Cooperstown then there are literally dozens of pitchers with similarly impressive runs, and logistically I don't think there's a way to honor an equitable share of them."

You can swap in Felix and 7 years for that and you've still got far more candidates than you can manage and no way to get all of the deserving ones in
1:31
That was from a piece I did about Kluber and rolling WAR, inspired by what Mike Petriello was doing re: Felix. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-retiring-corey-kluber-and-the-rolling-...
Cromulent
1:31
Year 1 of Paul Skenes puts him on an HOF path? Harder to stay healthy than the 2 Jacksons but arguably even more impressive season.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
I'm not going to bet on any rookie pitcher surviving the myriad obstacles that can prevent one from reaching Cooperstwon
snood
1:32
Any case for Wheeler/Nola?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
I'm very lukewarm on both. Wheeler got a late start — his 35.2 WAR is on part with Nola's 35.3, but Wheeler just finished his age-34 season and Nola his age-31 season. Either or both is going to have to pitch very well for several more years to have a real shot
Tom
1:35
When do you think the Hall shakes up the Committee process again?  They want eyeballs, and shoving Garvey and Mattingly down our throats to be rejected every three years can't be delivering them.  We talk a lot about electing guys while they're still alive -- but we should also emphasize electing guys while their fans are still alive.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:35
For the Hall's purposes an Era system that's producing 1-2 honorees every year is working just fine and is less likely to change than one that's obviously dysfunctional, as the 3-Era system was
1:37
but at a minimum I suspect the Hall wouldn't even consider a change to the current system until 2x through the order (so, after 3 more years).
jj hardy
1:37
Hypothetically, lets say Jackson Chourio in two separate timelines has the exact same career statline. In one, he plays with the Brewers for 18 years and leads them to first WS. In the other, he plays with the Brewers for 8, then switches to LAD and wins 1 WS with them (superteam). Assuming his stats are borderline HOF, does he have a better chance at getting in with scenario 1?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
a single-team candidate probably has a slight advantage, but it could easily be offset by the added exposure via the 2nd World Series.
1:39
Ok folks, that's it for me this week. Thanks so much for stopping by with so many great questions!
We'll do this again soon
Oh wait, before i forget! I'm going to be part of Nick Pollock's PitchCon this Friday at 3 PM, doing  — what else — a Hall of Fame-related presentation while helping to raise $ for ALS research https://pitcherlist.com/pitchcon/2025/
1:40
Please check it out if so inclined
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