JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/3/19

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Jay Jaffe

1:11

I've been appearing on MLB Network during ballot season since late 2011 (long live Clubhouse Confidential), so this is nothing new. I'm sure my discussions in such context have become more polished and measured over that timespan, and not only because I've grown up just a little. Being part of the BBWAA (c. 2011), moving to SI (2012), doing TV and a book... all of these things and the places they've taken me have been opportunities to reshape how I communicate what I'm doing. And I like to think I've gotten better at it, out of necessity.

Tom

1:11

Was Jeff Kent really *that* unlikable where he's not seriously considered a Hall of Famer, at least by the voters? He seems like more of a Hall-of-Famer than Utley

Jay Jaffe

1:12

I think the crowded ballot and unflattering advanced stats are doing as much, if not more, to keep Kent in down-ballot territory as his personality. I also think he'll be fine when he's a Today's Game candidate down the road. Most homers by a 2B is another easy hook when you're committed to doing zero in-depth analysis.

Lou

1:12

Was it a mistake for Grandal to turn down that (rumored) 4 year $60 mil deal from the Mets? Will he be this year's Moustakas?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

If I were him, I'd have jumped at 4/$60M if it was real, and even if it was the Mets. I have a hard time imagining him doing MUCH better than that unless it's similar money from a more sure-fire contender or simply Not a Met.

1:16

Remember all of that Grandal vs. Wilson Ramos discussion we had here late in the year? Given the rumor, I have to think that Grandal is gonna do a lot better than the 2/$19M Ramos got from the Mets, even with the attachment of the draft pick compensation.

Matt

1:18

Mussina is at 82.4% on public ballots, does he finally make it in?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Given that Halladay, Edgar and Mo are all 90%+,I think that the major suspense for this year's election basically boils down to Mussina in/out. Via the Tracker, he still needs about 71% from the remaining ballots (published and un-), and he got just 46.7% on the unpublished ones last year. If those old codgers are adding him at similar rates to the published ballots, he's golden, but if not, he'll have to wait a year. From my vantage, I always thought that last year's 63.5% put him two cycles away.

LPFan

1:21

Surprised Ted Williams isn't part of discussion as the greatest ever. If not for wars, I think he would have topped Ruth for most WAR, no?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

He might have challenged Bonds and Ruth for the top WAR if not for his military service, yes. And if we're just talking greatest hitter, he's certainly there, but once you start talking defense (or in Ruth's case the add'l aspect of his pitching) then Ted F. Williams might be the 5th wheel of that conversation.

Phil

1:23

Wow, that's a massive disparity between BRef and Fangraphs WAR for Simmons... I'm guessing that it is tied to DRS vs. UZR. Would be great to standardize the defense component one of these days.

Jay Jaffe

1:25

yeah 80+ runs more in DRS vs. UZR. i would not expect "standardization" anytime soon though. I've chosen to keep JAWS on the bWAR currency but don't think we need to view any single metric as the end-all of discussion.

Alex

1:25

What kind of a HOF chance does Andruw Jones have? With all the fuss over Vizquel's defense, it bothers me that a guy who could actually hit as well isn't getting nearly the support.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Maybe better in Committee? God knows he'll have enough Braves-affiliated HOFers as potential voters in that context.

James

1:26

People (I'd imagine including yourself) have discussed the recently unprecedented lack of sure-fire HOFs debuting on the next two ballots aside from Jeter. This has to mean a huge boon for the tweeners like Rolen, Vizquel, Walker and others who would have been many writers' 11th and 12th votes these recent years correct?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

It should help those guys, yes. It's worth looking at that far right column on the Tracker, which notes when voters mention guys they might possibly have voted for beyond 10.

Andrew

1:28

Hey Jay how do you think Abreu does on the ballot next year when Derek arrives?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

10% or less and likely below 5%. Underappreciated in his day, for sure, but a tweener in terms of speed and power (400 SB/288 HR), virtually no black ink, just 2 All-Star apperances and one Gold Glove. That's not a recipe for ballot longevity.

Jim

1:30

How can you justify Kenny Lofton not getting in the HOF while Kirby Puckett is in?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

*I* can't, but let's remember that postseason performance/success has long been a huge part of the consideration for most voters, and that Puckett's high batting averages also played to the electorate better than Lofton's OBP/Speed/Defense combo does.

Ariel White

1:32

What do you think of McCormick's, Tommy Bond's, and Buffington's Hof cases?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

I know there's a guy building a movement for McCormick, and he's the best of the remaining bunch, but I have a hard time getting worked up over missing 19th century pitchers, especially from non-NL leagues. Those three guys had 10-11 years max, so they barely meet that qualification, and the caliber of competition was pretty low.

The most interesting one, to me, is Tony Mullune, who was ambidextrous to the point of throwing lefty a few times, but also...

From The Cooperstown Casebook, "When Toledo employed black catcher Fleet Walker in 1884, before baseball’s “gentleman’s agreement” to uphold the color line had been implemented, Mullane refused to take pitch signals from him, at times deliberately crossing him up. So to hell with him."

Ariel White

1:39

If you were given power to add 5 players to the HoF (who aren't ineligible or still on the ballot) who would fill out the four spots after Minoso? Grich and Whitaker are kind of the standard guys that get mentioned. Do they make your list? Does Munson?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

I'd think about Munson for sure, esp. because I think he's always going to have a hard time in the small-committee processes due to lack of longevity. Dick Allen is probably the 1st guy after Minoso, and I would put Ted Simmons ahead of Munson on my want list. Allen, Grich, Whitaker, Simmons, Munson plus Minoso? Where do I sign up to make this a reality?

Ariel White

1:41

What 1 player would you remove from the HoF if you could? I'd remove Anson (character clause)

Jay Jaffe

1:42

if it's player, yeah, launch Anson's plaque into the goddamn sun. And take Tom Yawkey's plaque with it.

Andrew

1:42

Is there any 1st time Hof candidate next year other than Jeter that gets over 5%?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

Maybe the traffic easing up is enough to keep Abreu around, but if not him then Jason Giambi (BALCO, and just barely over 2,000 hits) and Cliff Lee (sub-Santana/Oswalt as far as JAWS go) are the next best, and their survival as candidates seems unlikely

Slothrop

1:45

Is there a particular Satchel Paige biography you would recommend?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

I loved Larry Tye's Satchel: The Life and Times of an American legend, which came out in 2010. I wrote about it then http://www.futilityinfielder.com/wordpress/2009/09/one-for-the-ages-2....

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

1:48

David Roberston to the Phillies.

Jay Jaffe

1:49

2/$23M, apparently. Good for Mr. High Socks and the Phillies — i like that move.

Jason

1:49

Andruw Jones career 62.8 WAR via baseball reference Won’t even get enough votes to stay on the ballot. Yet Rivera with a career 56.2 is a lock. The selection process is a joke. Too much room for personal relationship to influence writers votes. Am I crazy ?

Jay Jaffe

1:51

Most of the electorate doesn't use WAR as its sole yardstick, and nor should they — that fails to capture Rivera's postseason impact, which is a big part of why he's such a lock.

Rivera was legitimately the best at what he was doing, for a very long time. Jones might have been the best — there's room to question those defensive metrics, remember — but for not as long, and with a shocking fall-off that may well have been his own doing as far as the impact of his weight on his longevity.

Emily

1:51

Is David Ortiz a first ballot HOF? Thank you Jay : )

Jay Jaffe

1:52

Between the DH discussion and the survey test PED discussion it's gonna be one hell of an interesting debate. I don't think he gets in 1st year, but I do think he gets in within 3.

Webberoni PIzza

1:52

There's no way that Albert's time in Anaheim hinders his HOF case, right? Right?!

Jay Jaffe

1:52

right.

Michael

1:52

Does nyy also get option on tulo for 2020 at league min? How does that work?

Jay Jaffe

1:54

I'm about 90% sure he just hits free agency again next winter. His 2021 option is, I think, voided by the release, with the $4M buyout included in what he's still owed by them.

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