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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
Good afternoon and happy new year! It's been awhile since I got into a rhythm with these chats, so it's good to be back at it. Hope you all  had a nice holiday break.
stever20
12:03
when do you think the Donaldson saga is over?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
It sounds like it's nearing the finish line given that there are apparently multiple 4-year offers out there. I'd imagine we get resolution in the next week
Thank you for the chat!
12:04
Would Bryant make sense for the Yanks? Some return around Andujar, Frazier, Deivi, or similar players?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
So much of Bryant's value depends upon the outcome of the grievance and whether he has two years of control remaining instead of one. in the abstract, he'd obviously be a nice upgrade for the Yankees, but how much talent they give up for him hinges upon that decision, which will probably (but not definitely) go against him
Ernie Pantusso
12:05
Does Josh Donaldson have a path to the Hall of Fame? Injuries and the fact that he was such a late bloomer will keep his counting stats low, but he’s already met the 7-year JAWS peak standard and has a shot at the career standard since he’s still putting up 6 WAR seasons, plus he’s got an MVP in his pocket. Seems like an interesting case
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
Color me skeptical. Nomar Garciaparra's peak meets the JAWS standard but he finished with just 1,747 hits and 6,116 PA. Donaldson almost certainly needs to get to 2,000 hits to be considered; he's at 1,048. Long way to go
Rollin' for Rolen
12:08
Following the valuable HoF Tracker (courtesy Ryan Thibodaux), it looks like the ballot backlog is freeing up a lot of votes for players who received marginal support in years past. Who among that crop of major gains (Rolen, Sheffield, Jones, Wagner, etc.) are you most surprised by/not surprised by? (Or intrigued if that's a better word choice)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
The ones that interest me most are the gains of Rolen, for whom I've been strongly advocating since he hit the ballot, and Sheffield, who doesn't fare all that well via JAWS but has an intriguing case nonetheless. Also nice to see Billy Wags doing well. Surprised Jeff Kent hasn't gained as much as those guys on the public ballots — I expected him to have a Vizquel-like start to his candidacy and get to 75% even without my blessing.
DJ Kitty Tears Down the Trop
12:11
Serious question... what's the rationale for voting for Bonds OR Clemens but not both?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I really can't see a rationale that splits hairs so finely that one is ballot-worthy but not the other. Both are among the greatest ever, both are alleged to have used PEDs during the pre-testing era, and both had some off-field stuff that may repel voters too.
Ben
12:13
Next year, between Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, and Torii Hunter, which is most likely get 5% of the Hall of Fame vote? With a weaker ballot, do any of them stand a chance to make it to a 2nd year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
meh, I can sort of see it for the two pitchers if Andy Pettitte is drawing support. Maybe an edge to Buehrle because of the 2 no-hitters and the championship (though he was only OK in the postseason).
WinTwins410
12:16
I know I'm already looking ahead to next year, but do you think that Tony Oliva has a shot with the Veterans Committee next year?  Or do you think Dick Allen, Jim Kaat and Minnie Minoso have far better chances?  (I realize we don't yet know the committee's makeup.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
I think the four of them constitute a real cluster**** that could work against any of them. Oliva and Allen both fell one vote short last time; if the recent election of Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons tells us anything, it's that that might mean something to the panel. Personally, I'm in favor of Allen and Miñoso the most, and more inclined on Oliva than Kaat because of the former's peak, but that's not saying I'd vote for either of those two.
Alex Anthropologist
12:19
What kind of return would Happ bring if the Yankees eat a third of the money he is owed this year and, if the option is triggered, next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
nothing that's guaranteed to provide value; maybe an intriguing bullpen candidate or lower-level arm.
Bloom
12:19
Mookie to the ChiSox?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
They can't get everybody this winter. I'd imagine if the Red Sox trade him, they'd prefer to get him out of the AL
Gumbo Watkins
12:20
There is no way the Angels trade Adell for Clevinger, even straight up, right?  Furthermore, the value added by Clevinger is a) not likely to push the Angels over the top into "good playoff team" as opposed to "wild-card contender" and b) is higher in potential risk due to injury than keeping Adell.  Agree or disagree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I'd be utterly shocked if they traded Adell. I also think that aside from the Yankees and Astros, and maybe the Rays, that the AL teams who will be contending for playoff spots all point closer to "wild card" on that spectrum — though obviously, somebody's gotta win the AL Central.
Hawk Harrelson
12:25
True or false: despite all the acquisitions, Luis Robert, Madrigal etc., the White Sox are no better than an 85-win team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
85 may be plenty. They have a ton of players with a lot of upside, so I wouldn't be surprised if it comes together, but I'm also not going to get too worked up about a good offseason for them while other teams haven't come close to finishing their work.
Calvin Hobbes
12:26
Would you like to work in a major league team's front office?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
While I would have listened if a team came calling, working for one was never my goal, and my window for making such a move probably closed long ago
Tim
12:28
Rolen & Helton's jump (helped by Walker, I'd imagine) bodes well for their individual candidacies - but does it mean we're going to get a larger hall going forward? Pettitte and Sheffield votes seem like a bridge too far, IMO.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Pettitte's polling at like 12.7%, I wouldn't expect him to go anywhere. I do think we're seeing a changing dynamic but given the smaller-than-usual public sample to this point, we should be careful not to overstate it before seeing the final returns.
Judgean blast
12:30
Who is most likely to be traded: Bryant, Lindor, Betts, Price, or Nolan Tornado?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Lindor and Price, IMO.
Christopher
12:31
Re: DJ Kitty: One reason for voting for Clemens but not Bonds is the serious domestic violence allegations that come with the latter but not the former.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Yes, though Clemens' relationship with Mindy McCready is highly questionable — though multiple interviews and sources blur its timeline.
John
12:33
I know that predicting the committees is folly, but who do you think has better chance of induction: Kenny Lofton or Johan Santana?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Lofton. It's very clear that career length means a whole lot more to the voters than a high peak/short career profile
Dave C
12:33
Does Larry Walker make it in this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
it looks like a coin toss but if I had to bet I think he falls a little short. Just too much ground to make up and he has historically seen a pretty big fall-off on private ballots.
Christopher
12:35
In light of the Eagles always having to rely on backup QBs in their playoff games, what is the best post-season performance by an injury replacement in MLB history?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
Brian Doyle, who replaced Willie Randolph at 2B for the Yankees in the 1978 postseason comes to mind. Mickey Hatcher in place of Kirk Gibson for the Dodgers in 1988, too. I'd have to think of some others.
Clint Frazier
12:37
Will I EVER get to play?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
Yes, but not in New York. I thoroughly expect a trade.
henryv
12:37
It seems that Ichiro will be a Hall of Famer, but his MLB numbers don't really support his case.  Will he be looked as a combined NPB/MLB player?  Or will his special place as being the first really successful positional player from Japan be more important?
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