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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
Uh, his JAWS may be a little low but 3,000 hits and 59.4 WAR from age 27 onward is a massive achievement and if you don't think the numbers support his case, have your head examined and possibly removed and replaced.

Also, it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame — covers MLB, not NPB or any other foreign league.
EL
12:40
Hoping for a bounce back season from Posey. How far away is he from HOF consideration?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
IMO he's checked all of the boxes except longevity. he's above the WAR7 standard even without considering his elite framing, and if he never played another day I'd vote for him without hesitation. That said, he's clearly breaking down, and has just 1,380 hits. This could be a Mauer-like denouement
Gumbo Watkins
12:41
How do you think Kyle Seager is valued by contending teams needing a 3B and who miss out on Rendon/Donaldson?  Would you value him as a 3-4WAR player?  If you are a contender, is this good enough to a) trade for or b) swap a moderate to good prospect?  If he is a 3-4WAR player, should Seattle just keep him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
Seager hasn't been a 4-win player (by either b or fWAR) since 2016, so I'd say he's more like a 2-3 win guy now. His remaining money is just $37 million but if he's traded, his 2022 option becomes a player one at $15 million. I think the return will depend upon how much $ the Mariners are willing to eat
No Neck Williams
12:44
What's the case against Tommy John's election to the HOF?  Almost 80 fWAR!  His very own brand of surgery!  Postseason appearances!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
well, there's a huge discrepancy between b and fWAR (61.5 bWAR), and by that reckoning he was an outstanding compiler but rarely dominant, and only fleetingly among the league's best.
Brood550
12:46
Any scenarios where Mookie and Price to the Cubs makes sense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
if the Cubs stop the charade about how much money they don't have. Which ain't happening.
Gumbo Watkins
12:47
I should have asked this in the same breath as my previous, but how many HOF voters are women?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
My guess is somewhere between 10 and 20, and that may be high.
Cheating Expert
12:48
Buehrle is also a near-unicorn. It would be nice to see a guy who was Hall of Fame caliber at every aspect of pitching except "throwing the ball" get some ink even if his numbers don't really bear enshrinement.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I think the big problem for Buehrle is that he didn't miss a ton of bats (1,870 strikeouts). it will be a different electorate but if voters didn't reward Tommy John, they're not going to reward 2/3 of Tommy John Minus Surgery
Greg
12:49
Will we ever see relievers who were not primarily closers get HOF consideration?  Someone like Tom Gordon slots in ahead of closers like Hoffman and Sutter in WAR, but the voters so far have not been kind to such players. (Gordon fell off the ballot in 2015 after getting 0.4% of the vote, for example.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I don't see it. Those guys either become closers or regress. FWIW most of Gordon's value was actually as a starter.
Gumbo Watkins
12:50
Lindor and Matt Chapman:  both likely for Hall?  Neither?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
Both off to great starts to their MLB careers but huge advantage for Lindor, who debuted at 21, vs. Chapman, who debuted at 24 and is the older of the two. I hope they both make it but if I had to pick which one will it's Francisco
Ben
12:52
Between you and Emma, is your child going to be the greatest baseball mind of the 21st century? Some serious Chosen One vibes here.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
LOL, we're bracing for the point that she completely rejects baseball, though she does enjoy it now (which is adorable). I think we'd both prefer she finds a career more stable than sports media.
LLW
12:53
You've been invited by the Academy Awards to assemble a version of JAWS that will establish a Baseball Movie Hall of Fame. What criteria do you look at to separate the classics from the Hall of Very Good?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
Without thinking too hard about it, the two things that separate the best from the rest, I think, are realistic baseball action, and an avoidance of too much corn. So many baseball movies fail at either one or both of those. ESPECIALLY the latter. Good god, Field of Dreams makes me want to throw up.
Peter
12:55
When Jim Rice was voted in all I kept hearing was that he was the most feared hitter of his generation. I remember reading various writers debate this fact by looking at intentional walk rates.
When Sheffield played no one was more feared as a hitter than Sheffield. At least by third base coaches.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
Agreed. Watching Larry Bowa dodge Sheffield's foul balls in New York was a sport unto itself.
Eau Canada
12:56
After Fergie Jenkins and Larry Walker, who is the greatest mlb player of Canadian provenance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
Joey Votto is a clear number 3, with Russell Martin 4th.
Peter
12:57
Kenny Lofton, Top 10 Lead Off Hitter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
Yes and perhaps top 5. Henderson, Raines, and Rose are probably the top 3
mmddyyyy
1:00
Do you get to vote for the class that is inducted in 2021 or 2022?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
2021
Cashman
1:00
What has been the secret of my surviving 20 years in the lion's maw?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
the demise of George Steinbrenner and emergence of his less emotionally driven son Hal has a lot to do with it. The consolidation of power away from the Tampa cabal greatly reduced the number of organizational leaks. a willingness to be forward-thinking with regards to analysis and tech has helped as well. The Yankees were out front when it came to valuing on-base percentage and catcher framing, and they've been aggressive in other areas as well. Having enough money so that even a disaster like the Ellsbury contract doesn't affect things too much obviously helps
WinTwins410
1:04
There's been a lot of talk about strategic balloting, especially with the writers' ballot logjam (which in fairness has eased some).  All this is a setup for my question, which is: Do you think Jeter will get 100% of the vote this time around?  Or do you envision there being a strategic voter (or a hater?) denying Derek the 100% that Mariano got?  What's your thought?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
I think he gets 100%. Sean Forman was pretty public on Twitter about considering a strategic vote and I got the impression he was surprised by the negative response. I think a strategic vote is much easier to justify when the ballot is bursting with great candidates even at the bottom, but this one is not. It's one thing to keep Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez off so as to vote for Alan Trammell and Larry Walker — one now a HOF, the other headed there even if by committee — as Mike Berardino did in 2015, but another to not vote for Jeter when you're hoping Bobby Abreu scrapes by to a 2nd ballot with 5%.
Doug
1:09
Is David Price worth 3/54 if the Red Sox pay his contract down to that level?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
As a guy who mostly likely produces in the 2-4 WAR range, he's probably worth that gamble in a vacuum, but a high-payroll team might have a harder time justifying it.
Guest
1:13
Any reasonable HOF path for deGrom?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
A year ago I'd have said no, but two Cy Youngs gives him some hope. he's got to keep kicking ass for the better part of the next half-decade, I think, and another CY would help.
Chaim Bloom
1:16
What kind of a jam am I in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
It's a tough spot to be in, for sure, but I don't think you'd have taken the job without a clear plan for how to potentially avert a Betts trade or at least have a set of goals for what you need to be satisfied while becoming known as The Guy Who Traded Mookie.
Thurman Munson
1:17
Was I on a path to the HOF at the time of my unfortunate early demise?
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