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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/6/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of 2023!
Happy New Year to you all
2:02
I'm in the midst of the one-and-dones on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, players who won't get the 5% needed to stick around for another year but whose careers merit a proper sendoff. Today it was Andre Ethier https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-andr...
2:03
Yesterday it was Jacoby Ellsbury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-jaco..., and on Wednesday it was R.A. Dickey, a piece that was particularly fun to write https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-r-a-...
2:04
Of course, it wouldn't be a First Chat of the Year if there weren't some technical glitch that needs my attention for a minute...
2:05
OK, finally got the banner to show up atop the home page, something I tend to forget to check
2:06
anyway, on with the show
Cal
2:06
How do you read the Correa leaks from today?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
Until the past 24 hours maybe, I'd have said that I still expect the Mets and Correa to strike a deal, one that traded some ability to void a portion of the contract with an opt-out. Now, I'm not so sure. It wouldn't surprise me if there is indeed another team willing to take a chance (though again, the physical and any contract language is a nontrivial concern) especially if it's the Twins, who otherwise weren't able to put together an offer in the ballpark of the Giants and Mets. But I also think Steve Cohen is sensitive enough to public opinion that he finds a way to get this done.
Inaccessible Rail
2:09
Can a baseball player sue over injuries that result in lost contracts? Typically, the lost contract amount would be almost impossible to prove...but not in the Carlos Correa case.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
[deleted previous response] oh wait, i mis-read your question.
2:14
While a team can terminate a deal for a player doing something prohibited by a contract (such as Aaron Boone tearing his ACL playing basketball), I'm having a hard time imagining a player being able to sue a team over something that happened unless it was, like, an incorrect diagnosis via team medical personnel. . I don't think we've ever seen a pitcher sue a team for overusing him, for example.
Cardinals Guy
2:14
Do you ever see Mike Trout asking for a trade?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
possibly, but I doubt it would happen before he sees who the Angels' new owners are, if that's what you're wondering
Inaccessible Rail
2:15
Why would Danny Mendick sign with the Mets, where it looks like he'll spend the whole season in AAA? Did they just offer him more $$ than anyone else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I think that the money is mostly it, but given their spending — if the Correa deal is finalized, I mean — it's not out of the question that the Mets do something to cut salary that lessens their infield depth and makes Mendick's path to the majors more clear. Even now, the presumption is that they're going to trade Eduardo Escobar if they finish the Correa deal, and that might be enough; if not, he's probably only one injury away
Dalton Wilcox
2:19
Seiya Suzuki’s periphs scream breakout, no? Hard, flyball contact with limited whiffs and chases sounds like an ideal offensive foundation
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
eh, not to these eyes. He's a very disciplined hitter (25.5% O-Swing and just 39% Swing) but his batted ball stats were pretty modest, he averaged just 89.1 mph exit velo (63rd percentile) and had just a .414 xwOBA. One thing to note is that he pulled just 31.4% of his batted balls, which draws applause for a whole-field approach but means fewer pulled fly balls, and that's where the real meat of production usually is.
Ross
2:22
Jared Kelenic over/under 2.5 WAR this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
The weight of expectations and the depth of the holes he's dug in his two partial seasons suggests he needs a change of scenery, and so I'm taking the under until then.
M's fan
2:25
How disappointed should I be as a Mariner's fan with how the offseason has played out? We have spent less money than the A's in FA, the 2 nice trades we pulled off are just 1 year rentals so we will have the same problem next year, and TX and LAA have made massive improvement.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
I dunno. I answered this several weeks back pointing to their spending on Julio and Castillo, and their acquisition of Teoscar, and figured that M's fans had a lot to be happy about — but then everybody signed elsewhere and their biggest expenditure was $1.2 million on Trevor Gott, so I can understand fans' ire. The one thing i would say is that it's only a matter of time before Jerry Dipoto makes another trade, and maybe they'll find ways to take on some salary as a means of adding talent.
Jerry’s Apathetic Yawn
2:30
Is there any chance the White Sox make a higher upside play to land a 2B akin to Torres, Lowe, Kim (if available), or should the fans content themselves with running out less than exciting internal options and/or a LasStella type. Thank you for your kind indulgence.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
it all depends on who's actually available and how much the White Sox are willing to give up — nobody's giving club-controlled talents like the above away for free, they're gonna make it hurt. Are you prepared to see them trade, say, Michael Kopech in a deal for Lowe?
Inaccessible Rail
2:37
Did Steve Cohen support the implementation of the highest level luxury tax? Wouldn't it be interesting if he did, realizing that no one but himself would be willing to go over it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Yes. He was pretty visible about falling into line with the other owners. Recall it was four owners who were the real holdouts when it came to adjusting the CBT thresholds: those of the Angels, Reds, Diamondbacks and Tigers. I wrote about it here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/even-with-holdouts-path-to-new-cba-runs-th...
Chip
2:39
Does Chapman even get a ML offer this year? He wasn't very good, he didn't help himself with his shenanigans during last year. And there's the elephant of his previous...ahem...behavior.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Good question. It wouldn't surprise me, because there's always at least one executive willing to put winning ahead of any moral responsibility, but woof, Chapman didn't give many teams a whole lot of reasons to pursue his services.

On a related note: we are not going to discuss ****** ***** in this space today lest it send this chat off the rails. Suffice it say that this decision should not have been hard for the Dodgers.
Matt
2:42
Is the Pirates reported offer to Bryan Reynolds of 6 years, $75 million insultingly low?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
Here's one for you: as I was reminded when writing today's HOF series profile, when the Guggenheim group took over the Dodgers, their first big move was to extend Andre Ethier via a five-year, $85 million deal IN 2012. Granted, Reynolds has more time to go before free agency but what the Pirates are offering wouldn't have been agreed to by even an All-Star level outfielder a decade ago.
Inaccessible Rail
2:45
I just paid $6 for a dozen eggs. What's the price of beer going to be in ballparks next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
It really depends on where you are, but $13-$15 for a big "craft" beer at Yankee Stadium is hardly uncommon and I pay about $6-7 for an organic dozen eggs.
Mr. Redlegs
2:46
Players can sue teams if they believe they directly contributed to their injuries. Dustin Fowler sued the White Sox saying their field caused his injury (don't know if he won).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
Good point. Sheryl Ring wrote about that one in 2019 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-check-in-on-dustin-fowlers-lawsuit-ag... and I don't think it's even been decided or settled.
Cardinals Guy
2:48
is there a more interesting arb / contract extension talk than tommy edman? WAR has him above all these mega contract SS
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Edman had a fantastic year but his 5.6 WAR ranked below Lindor, Swanson, Turner, and Bogaerts among shortstops, so I'm not sure what you're talking about on that front. While I think he's a player worth extending, he's also a guy with a 102 wRC+ overall and 108 last year; his value is in his defense and at 27 years old, I'm not sure how many more years we should expect him to be elite.
Leon
2:51
How do JD Martinez and Justin Turner compare?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
I said words to this effect at the time of the two deals: I wouldn’t trade Turner — older but still a better hitter and defensively capable at 3B — for Martinez, who is pretty much DH only and a shadow of the hitter he once was. And that's even before we get into the softer factors of, like, trading a key clubhouse figure and community pillar for a guy who used a Hitler quote in a meme about gun control.
mmddyyyy
2:54
Does an empty ballot count towards the denominator?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
correct. It's a no on every single candidate.
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