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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/6/23
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Keith
2:56
Uninspiring winter for the Royals?  What would your next step(s) be if you were leading that organization?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
Their major additions are Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough so yeah, that's pretty much the definition of uninspiring.
3:01
they've obviously got some interesting young players but I don't see how they can expect to compete without getting some frontline starting pitching, but right now Lyles' 4.42 ERA is the second-lowest among their projected starting five. Good luck with that. There was good starting pitching to be had this winter, but the only way they were going to get it would have been to overpay. That they weren't even getting mid-rotation guys like, I dunno, Bassitt or Walker tells me they weren't interested in actually improving.
Sammy So-so
3:01
Was thumbing through Baseball-Reference pages as one does, and was stunned by how good a career Chet Lemon had. Maybe not Hall-worthy, but still very significant. When you first started doing JAWS research, were you regularly surprised by individual careers or was it more of just an occasional occurrence?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Oh, Chet Lemon was a helluva player, a 3x All-Star RF with a 122 wRC+ and 52 career WAR. I certainly found my share of surprises when i started doing JAWS, with Bert Blyleven and Ron Santo — two players I quickly began championing for the Hall — among the most prominent.

I can't remember if it was Tom Tango or maybe Bill James who said something to the effect of a good metric should surprise you about 20% of the time. I think that's about where JAWS falls for me
mmddyyyy
3:08
You've considered alternate approaches to underrepresented classes such as catchers and modern starters. How do you determine the types of players that are underrepped? Is there similar consideration for switch hitters?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
it's generally by focusing upon a given position, since positions tend to center around certain skill sets and limitations — and, over time, different types of data — with both positions you mention being excellent examples. We've got an underrepresentation of catchers in the Hall, and an increasing amount of data that illustrates the value of pitch framing, so it stands to reason that we should be recognizing the best of those players from the era for which we have data, which is why i'm keen on Buster Posey despite his short career, further emboldened regarding Joe Mauer, accepting of the inevitability of Yadier Molina, and ready to advocate for Russell Martin and Brian McCann as well.
Guest
3:12
Do you foresee the Yankees pulling off any more moves of substance this off-season? Trading for Reynolds? Trade away Torres? Find someone to take Hicks/Donaldson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
I don't see them as players for Reynolds and think that the injuries of Hicks and LeMahieu are making it harder for them to deal. With so much uncertainty at SS, they're not trading Torres, and while a healthy LeMahieu might allow them to move Donaldson, a banged-up one does not. Maybe if DJ and Hicks demonstrate health in the spring, they will be able to move somebody and cut some payroll but they're in a tough position now.
Ben
3:16
Jim Bowden says the Cardinals are working on a trade but are keeping the details very tight lipped. Any thoughts on who it could be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
My guess was you-know-who but that was just a wild-ass guess.
Ancient
3:16
Thank you for another exciting series of my favorite winter game: "No way he's been out of the league for five years!"
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
Time remains undefeated. As of this week it's also five years since I interviewed for this position at FanGraphs, a story you can hear about on this week's FG Audio podcast https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-derrick-goold-returns-jay-...
Newbie
3:18
Will opening day rosters be 28 again in 2023?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
I don't think so. That was done due to pandemic health and safety protocols and shortened spring/summer training, and I don't expect the owners have much appetite for paying a couple extra players for a month of big league service.
Cardinals Guy
3:20
I was daydreaming about the Cardinals making another Arenado trade... aka trading for a big contract the team wants to shed, get money attached and give up little in prospect value.

How about a Trevor Story-Arenado reunion after the Sawx extended Devers? Would the Dodgers dump Chris Taylor to free up space to complete their roster? Could the Tigers with new leadership want to dump Baez and/or E-Rod and reset?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
All of those deals seem too fresh for the signing team to cut bait after only one year. Story is the only one who wasn't a huge disappointment last year (only a mild one) but I don't see the point of extending Devers if you're cutting bait on him. Maaaaybe the Dodgers would have moved Taylor if they could have found a replacement via free agency (or if they trade for Reynolds), but they seem more concerned about cutting payroll than they do about winning the NL West right now.
Inaccessible Rail
3:23
So...who gets the money the Mets will be luxury-taxed for 2023? All the teams evenly? Or just some of them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
As I understand it, half the tax collected is distributed among the teams that didn't pay the tax and half goes to various other player benefit plans
Bubba
3:24
Just wanted to say I love your HOF write-ups.  Don't care too much about the HOF itself, but love reading about interesting players like RA Dickey.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
Thanks! Putting together a piece about a unique player like Dickey or a cartoon villain like A.J. Pierzynski is some of the purest fun I have while writing.
Anon21
3:28
How do you evaluate the Braves' trade for Murphy? From where I sit, they definitely did upgrade, but not necessarily all that much, and at a real cost. Also with robo-umps on the way, Murphy's framing may soon be less valuable.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
If we knew the ABS was going to be implemented in 2024, then keeping Contreras would have made more sense, but within the game it seems clear that we're still at least a few years away from robo-ups. Thus paying a good framer and above-average hitter for a catcher something less than the free market rate is going to continue to be a good idea. Michael Baumann had a good breakdown of the deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/three-teams-nine-players-one-surprising-wi...
Tiger Fan
3:32
If Tatis Jr. goes on to have HOF worthy stats would you lump him in with other players that have tested positive for performance enhancing drugs (ie. Alex Rodriguez)?  Or is his circumstance unique in the sense he claims the drug was taken unintentionally and the fact he never actually played baseball while testing positive?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
As we're probably ~20 years away from his landing on the ballot with a resumé that would merit consideration (if he reaches there sooner it's likely he didn't play long enough), I think we're really in wait and see mode. If voters do come around to elect A-Rod and other players who tested positive, I think it's more likely Tatis' suspension will be overlooked.

One thing I know is that you can pretty much toss what a player says about "unintentionally" out the window when it comes to PEDs. At this juncture it's pretty clear that it's part of these guys' job to know better.
Inaccessible Rail
3:36
When I was growing up, most teams had a guy who was mainly a pinch hitter, someone like Dan Driessen or Rusty Staub to come off the bench. With today's shorter benches, those players are as gone as third string catchers. Any idea who was the last of the PH type?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Lenny Harris comes to mind, but a quick look at the single-season PH plate appearance leaders via Stathead shows Ichiro (109 PA in 2017), Mark Sweeney (92 PA in 2008), and Tommy La Stella (90 PA in 2018) ahead of Harris' highest total (89 PA in 2001), and even Matt Joyce had 85 PA in 2019. https://stathead.com/tiny/pNUBm
Nate
3:39
I know this will probably never happen, but what would you think about a BBHOF voting process where the top two vote getters plus anyone else over 75% makes the HOF?  I went back and did this exercise starting in 2000 and everyone except (for now) Bonds, Clemens and Schilling that get in under this methodology have made it into the HOF, it just speeds it up for some candidates and smooths things out.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
You're right that it will probably never happen. When I was on the BBWAA committee that explored ways the HOF election process could be improved so as to alleviate the ballot bottleneck, we were told that the Hall wasn't budging on 75% so don't bother to propose that. We ended up proposing an expansion to 12 slots, and even that was table by the Hall.
Inaccessible Rail
3:41
Did you see Joe Posnanski's Ten Most Underrated Baseball Players list? He had Keith Hernandez #10. Any idea why the committees haven't given KH another look? Do they just not like him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:44
I haven't seen Joe's list but I do think KH is ripe for reconsideration and would have put him in the Hall long before McGriff. His nonstandard offensive profile and comparatively modest counting stats work against him, and I suspect he's probably got somebody among the ranks of the Historical Overview Committee — the group of BBWAA elder statesmen that tasked with building the ballots, and painfully lacking in turnover — who is pretty set against including him.
Kenny Lofton Propoganda
3:44
What is your opinion on Kenny Lofton’s HOF case? Do you think he deserves to be in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
I have Lofton high on my list; he's 10th in JAWS, one spot below Beltrán and one above Andruw, both of whom I voted for. He was eligible for inclusion on this year's Contemporary Baseball ballot for the first time, but the recent allegations regarding sexual misconduct that surfaced this year may have cost him a spot and could hamper him for awhile unless he's able to credibly refute those allegations. Nobody's going to bend over backwards to include him so long as that's hanging over his head. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus...
Sandwich
3:48
Should there be a lower bound in terms of defensive penalty for the purposes of WAR or HoF evaluation? I have always found it a bit odd that a player who is forced to play the field is more penalized more than someone who only acts as a DH.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
That's sort of what I'm doing in justifying my vote for Sheffield — more in setting a lower bound for how much I believe his fielding metrics (vis à vis other systems) rather than the positional adjustment. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-gary...
emh
3:51
Who can best help their HOF chances with a bounceback season is 2023?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:51
Maybe Gerrit Cole.
Broken Bat
3:52
happy new year. Jay, I see many concerns with the Dodger infield defense heading into ST. Muncy at 3rd, Lux as Ss and TYlor at 2b.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:55
Very much so. That's not the infield of a division winner. I don't think it would be even if they do something like trade for Eduardo Escobar to play 3B and have Muncy and Taylor share 2B. Just don't see Lux as having the glove for regular SS duty and their lineup needs a bigger bat at the hot corner.
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