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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/7/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of 2022. We've got a few inches of snow in Brooklyn from last night but against the odds, the kiddo is in school for the first time since December 17, the last time I chatted.
2:02
Today I've got my third entry from among the one-and-done candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot, Ryan Howard https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-ryan...
2:04
this completes a trilogy of first basemen who won the Home Run Derby and made several All-Star teams before their careers were indelibly altered by injuries. Prince Fielder (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prin...) and Justin Morneau (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prin...) preceded Howard. The explainer for my actual Hall of Fame ballot, which went into the mail on December 30, is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot/
2:05
Anyhoo, there's not a lot going on besides Hall stuff given the lockout, so that will be the primary focus of this chat
TomBruno23
2:05
How can the wrong of Willie Davis never appearing on a ballot be righted?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
He'd be a candidate for the Golden Days Era Committee ballot, and the good news is that a whole lot of space just opened up there, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Past HOF ballot results probably play too big an impact in determining who gets first crack at making those ballots.
2:08
While he's 16th in JAWS, he made just two All-Star appearances, which is another impediment towards him getting noticed.
Marshall
2:08
Why do some candidates’ vote totals change so much during their time on the ballot, even absent new information (i.e., putting cases like vizquel aside)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
A lot of it has to do with who else is on the ballot, and whether there's room to include everybody. Some years there's a real crunch because of the number of strong newcomers; that was especially the case from 2013-18, and it required voters to do some triage depending upon who was important to them. Also, it used to be that if a major first-ballot guy or two appeared, some voters would just include him/them and exclude everybody else.
John Olerud's Helmet
2:11
Howdy Mr Jay, Do you ever see Bernie Williams getting a shot at the Hall of Fame. His peak of 9% seems criminally low considering his career numbers and his added postseason stats.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Bernie would have fared much better in an age before defensive metrics. Despite his four Gold Gloves, he rates as 139 runs below average via Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved, and just 28th in JAWS. Certainly, his postseason stuff mitigates that to a degree, but retiring short of 2,500 hits and 300 homer makes it easier to overlook him.
Martin
2:13
What would Shohei Ohtani have to do as a two way player to secure your support for the hall of fame, assuming he doesn't meet JAWS standards as a pitcher or hitter? Would you consider a lower JAWS standard for Ohtani because being just "pretty good" as a pitcher and hitter would be special enough, assuming he doesn't continue to put up 9+ WAR seasons?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
If Ohtani gets to 10 years maintaining any kind of level of excellence on one side of the ball, or the other, I suspect he's going to get a lot of support, and deservedly so. I don't think his JAWS is going to matter a damn bit if he keeps this up.
gg
2:15
If Jose Ramirez stays at this level for 2 more years and then ages gracefully enough to reach 2000 hits... he's a HOFer right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
From early September https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-pitchers-and-some-more-position-play...:

José Ramirez, third base (32.8 career | 31.5 Peak | 32.1 JAWS, +4.0 JAWS). With a big age-28 season (5.2 WAR and counting) driven by his 31 homers, 138 OPS+, and 9 DRS, Ramirez is making notable progress toward Cooperstown, particularly given that he’s already banked two seven-win seasons. He’s got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years.
2:17
in the final month of the season he added another 1.5 points of peak and JAWS. A couple more strong years and he'll be in good shape
TomBruno23
2:17
I was in Lafayette High School about a month ago, cool to see framed jerseys of Howard, Freese and Voit on the wall.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
Very cool! I didn't know that all three went to the same school.
Ben
2:18
Ohtani inspired me to research two-way players from the early days of baseball. Have you ever written anything about Tony Mullane, Bob Caruthers, or Jim Whitney? And what do you think about their HoF cases?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
Mullane's in the Casebook, interesting from a performance standpoint but racist as hell — he would deliberately cross up Moses Fleetwood Walker and wouldn't take signs from him. The move to S-JAWS costs him about 5 points relative to the standards. I don't think the Hall needs him at all.

I haven't written about Caruthers or Whitney. They're both kind of interesting but my appetite for pre-1893 pitchers is next to nothing.
Tiger Fan
2:23
What current Tiger is most likely to head to the HOF, NOT named Miguel Cabrera.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Eh, the only one I'd give odds on is Javier Baez but his 23.4 WAR through age 28 means he'd have to have several big seasons soon. Maybe somebody like Mize or Skubal or Manning puts it together but even then, staying healthy is so difficult.
Steve
2:25
A-Rod to David Cone is an upgrade of epic proportions. Not sure how JAWS treats Cone, but do you think this increased national profile will help remind future HOF committee members how great of a pitcher he was?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Yes, I think so. If Jim Kaat's broadcasting helped push his case over the line, then Cone's should. For those unfamiliar with his style in the booth, you're in for a treat, because he knows how to talk about pitching, has some good stories, and reads FanGraphs and is into the analytics stuff.

Cone fares very well in S-JAWS, as he doesn't lose anything in the conversion and winds up just four points shy of the standard — close enough that his postseason stuff and some mental adjustment for the strike gets him there, IMO.
Bill G
2:28
Do you believe there is enough MLB talent to support expansion to 32 teams?  Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Yes, but the game's other problems appear to be so intractable at the moment that I don't see the point.
Deebo
2:29
What's for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Leftover chicken fajitas, with a marinade using the Penzey's Fajita Mix.
They were excellent!
Justin B.
2:30
After some impressive gains the past two years, it seems like Sheffield is just more or less holding steady so far this year. Do you think he's hitting a ceiling?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
It's very hard to tell because the four 10-year guys plus the two big newcomers are taking up a lot of space, and some candidates who have  made big gains recently will see their growth slowed. Right now, that's Wagner and Sheffield moreso than Rolen, Helton and Jones.
Scott
2:33
You have mentioned the loaded Early Era ballot from last month’s voting. Does Bill Dahlen have a realistic chance of ever getting in? If they continue to go ten years between votes for that era, it seems likely that his candidacy diminishes.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
I think that there was — rightfully — a lot of emphasis on giving the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates a very close look this year, and that worked against Dahlen. I'm hopeful that we don't have to wait another 10 years to evaluate the NeL/BB guys but even if that's the case I think the dynamic will be different because there won't be a Buck O'Neil on the ballot.
Ben Affleck
2:36
To your knowledge, is there any faction of the voters supporting a "movement" to just put the best PED guys in and move past the PED era (as much as we can)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
A-Rod's tracking at 44.8%, and while that share will fall once the final vote is tallied, I think that gives you a pretty good indication that there's a significant segment of the voting body who have moved past the PED factor in the voting. I don't know that it will ever be enough for him to get elected but I suspect there's some fatigue after the Bonds/Clemens decade. I know I'm thinking about whether A-Rod is still on the wrong side of my line
Curtis
2:40
What is the fewest number of players supported for the HOF by any one voter?  Has anyone just voted for one that you are aware of?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Via the Tracker we've seen four blank ballots this year but nobody else has submitted fewer than three names. Last year there were 14 of the former and 7 of the latter, and the year before that there were zero blanks but 11 Jeter-only ones.
Mike Trout
2:42
Seems likely we saw close to peak Ohtani usage last year and he put up an 8 WAR season. Do you think he would top that as just a good defensive corner outfielder? What about a good defensive corner outfielder and reliever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I think it's possible Ohtani could top that as a good defensive corner, but there's a lot of risk involved when it comes to injuries and fatigue. I doubt he could top that total as an OF/Reliever.
Josh R
2:43
If the unthinkable comes to pass and Mike Trout dwindles from here and doesn't make it to 2000 hits do you think he still easily skates into the Hall?
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