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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/10/23

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Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first solo October chat of this postseason. I hope you're enjoying the playoffs so far or at the very least are faring better than the Dodgers.

I did a quick piece on last night's Phillies-Braves game and its wild finish (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/late-homers-wild-final-play-help-braves-kn...), and before that a piece on Sandy Alcantara's Tommy John surgery (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sandy-alcantaras-volume-and-velocity-lead-...). Anyway, on with the show...

Zips user

2:03

How did you feel about the playoff format? Is 4-5 days off a disadvantage to bye teams? Is a three game series really worth it? Why not a one game play-in ?

Jay Jaffe

2:07

I'm on record as disliking this current format, both because of how diluted the field becomes when you start including the league's sixth-best team, because the advantages of winning the division aren't great enough (the third seed has to play), and because best-of-three is so random that it tells us almost nothing about who's the better team.

I much preferred the 5-teams-per-league format because i thought the one-and-done Wild Card game was the appropriate penalty for qualifying without winning the division, but it's worth noting that for all of the handwringing that goes on every year, the off-time between the end of the regular season and the start of the Division Series there was the same as it is for the recipients of the bye under the current format.

Zips user

2:08

Jay, what is your view of catching framing? Should it be in WAR or not? The umps don't miss much any more and robots are coming within two years. Does it make sense to have a 10-20 year period where framing is in WAR but not before or after ?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

I do believe framing should be part of WAR and wish we had it going much further back. I don't think its value will go away entirely because it seems quite clear we're not getting a full ABS (automatic ball and strike) system but more likely a challenge system, and even that has a ways to go before it's ready for the majors. But even if that weren't the case, we should be using the data we have for the period where it was relevant.

Fungible Pitching

2:11

Regarding modern SPs throwing fewer innings than in past eras, thus being less likely to accumulate HoF-caliber WAR/etc, does the bar really need to be lowered in order to induct a comparable amount of SPs as in the past? After all, SPs now are trained and paid to be interchangeable. They're becoming role players, by design. No individual "Fame" there.

Jay Jaffe

2:14

I don't agree with you that they're all trained to be interchangeable — there's a clear spectrum of ability, quality, and "fame." The best make some of the highest salaries in the sport, and even with reduced workloads, starting pitchers generally have a larger impact upon the game than any other player.

For Hall purposes, I believe the appropriate thing is to identify and reward the best pitchers of the era, which is a bit tougher now given the way things have changed. Not saying there has to be a quota system but a Hall without representation of an era's best becomes weaker as an institution.

>this guy<

2:15

if MLB actually G.A.F. about the higher seeds being rewarded, then the playoffs wouldn't keep getting more inclusive, right? there wouldn't be a multi-day bye if there were only 2 or 4 teams, but on the other hand: sweet, sweet TV money, so...

Jay Jaffe

2:16

MLB has decided it wants a money-generating tournament more than it wants a system to reward the best team, but it's worth noting that it would take something like a best-of-75 games for true talent to win out with the regularity we believe we're getting from a 7-gamer

2:17

see Ben Lindbergh last year https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2022/10/19/23412844/2022-mlb-playoffs-up...

shortstop

2:18

Do you have Astros fatigue? I don't even care about the cheating anymore, I'm just sick of watching them play every October

Jay Jaffe

2:20

On an emotional level moreso than an intellectual/professional level. The Astros have their share of interesting players, and for the most part I enjoy writing about them if I have reason to.

Mitchell

2:21

Beginning with the 2017 season, the Dodgers have won 100 or more games in five of the last six full seasons, and in the seventh, pandemic-shortened 2020 season in the middle they went 43-17, a .717 winning percentage. Is this the most impressive run of regular season excellence in MLB history? The only analog my cursory search revealed was the Yankees’ run of five 100 win seasons in seven beginning with 1936.

Jay Jaffe

2:24

Quite possibly. By winning %, run differential, and a standard deviation score that combines the two, their 2017-21 and 2018-22 teams came out on top in a study I did last year, revisiting an older study from 2020. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ousted-dodgers-drive-home-disconnect-betwe...

2:25

My study only went as far back as 1961, the start of the expansion era. I think that with the shorter schedule and the lack of integration, it's tough to compare post-1960 teams to ones in the 1930s or whatever, but somebody could do that study with the same methodology if they wanted to.

Guest

2:25

I have a friend that's convinced that the Dodgers roster is built for the regular season and not for the postseason. He's been saying this for a few years now - that it's more a roster depth that can win a lot of regular season games than high variance players that can get hot in a short series, and that it's continually hurt them in the playoffs. I tend to think it's more about injury and short season luck (2020 they were very healthy). What's your take?

Jay Jaffe

2:26

I think it's a mix of both. Depth is at a greater premium over the 162-game season, and the Dodgers' resources allow them more depth than most. This year's injuries (and Urias' admin leave) have compromised what was already one of their most questionable pitching staffs as far as depth, and that's a big part of the reason they're on the brink of elimination.

Matt Kory

2:27

Hey Jay! Hope all is well! Tried any great beers lately?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

Hey Matt! I haven't been posting beers much becuase I haven't been using Twitter much but lately I've been drinking several of Threes Brewing's lagers such as their What Might Have Been Helles Lager and their Hereafter Oktoberfest Lager. Also Industrial Arts Power Tools hazy IPA.

Cameron

2:29

Do you think it’s time to make the division series a best of seven? I personally think so.

Jay Jaffe

2:30

Probably — the longer the series the more likely the better team wins, but the difference between 5 and 7 isn't massive. The big issue with that is it pushes the end of the World Series later, so you're either going to have to reduce the schedule a bit (which gets into the $ question with the union) or create more doubleheaders in order to keep to a similar calendar

M’s Fan

2:31

Could Gleyber Torres be a target for the M’s?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

He'd definitely be an upgrade but a short-term one as he's got just one more year of arbitration eligibility

Natitude Adjuster

2:33

If the O's lose tonight, does their streak of 91 consecutive series of not getting sweeped officially end? Or is there some technicality here that would have it continue?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

this isn't like, say, a single-season home run record where there's a clear demarcation and some controversy over the record holder. Either you're calling the streak "regular season only" or "including postseason"

BLT

2:35

Phillies and Braves each rostered a reliver without much/nearly any MLB experience for the post season. Do you see value in having an arm that batters haven't faced in a pressure packed short series?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

Yes, if the manager trusts him enough to find a use for him in some spot

Tony The Tiger

2:35

The simplest solution to solving playoff madness is less off days in the postseason. Teams are playing a totally different ballgame in terms of roster construction and strategy. Screw the travel day, bring back daytime playoff baseball!

Jay Jaffe

2:36

MLB's advertisers are probably less interested in that due to the lower tv ratings for day games.

Prince

2:36

Any plan to finish your series on SPs just outside the Hall? As a Mets fan, I can't help but feel as if Cone and Johan may be the two biggest misses on the pitching side this century. It seems crazy to me that the Hall is big enough for Catfish Hunter and Red Ruffing but not David Cone.

Jay Jaffe

2:37

I had hoped to get to it in September but it slipped through the cracks. Check back in January, perhaps

Bernie

2:38

Any thoughts about Eppler? Is this purported investigation just an opportunity to take Cohen down a peg or two over something everyone does? Or do you think there's more behind the curtain than a little Phantom IL action?

Jay Jaffe

2:40

My understanding is that the occurrence is pretty common, so it seems odd that Eppler is being singled out for this, but I don't know if there was an instance that was particularly egregious or handled with a particular lack of tact. Frankly if this was Mets-related I would have expected a Wilpon to be involved.

Michael

2:42

Will Chris Paddock be a starter for the Twins next year? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe

2:43

I think at the very least he'll compete for a spot in spring training, and with Gray and Maeda both reaching free agency the rotation may have an opening, but I also think that beyond his rookie season, Paddack has been rather fringy as a starter and he'll have to pitch better than he did in 2021-22 to keep a spot

v2micca

2:43

Is it safe to say that given his elite production in the last two seasons, Freddie Freeman is now firmly on a hall of fame pace?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

Not sure I'd say firmly but he's really made up some ground in the past few seasons, and is more likely than not to make it. Wrote about him here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...

Peter

2:46

Once the Braves clinched the division, they seemed to kind of go on this laxicdazical strut and lost games to the Phillies, Marlins, Nationals, etc. And while it might just be tiniest sample, the last *good* Dodgers series was their fight against the Giants in 2021 where they were playing to win on the final day of the season. Is there perhaps a different way we could measure the break by looking at early clinchers vs. late clinching and whether the weeks of less intense play actually changes behavior in the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe

2:48

I've studied the relationship between September performances and October success and never found much correlation; this is the most recent iteration https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-impressive-winning-streak-do...

I have not specifically tried to identify early vs. late clich teams but I suspect you'd again find little relationship. I know MLB.com did recently publish a list of early clinchers (https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-teams-that-clinched-earliest-c294803488) but I haven't done anything with it.

Sirras

2:48

What is the best walk-up song you've heard in person?

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