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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/10/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
In 1999 when he was in the midst of his throwing problems, Chuck Knoblauch used "Public Enemy No. 1." At least that's how I remember it.
>this guy<
2:50
If you were the Cubs' GM and Mr Ricketts opened the wallet, you would target ____?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, hoping to get one of them. As with every other team
Guest
2:52
In no way was this why they lost, but were you a fan of Roberts burning all his ph options in the 6th?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
I was fine with it. You're down by 3 runs and you don't know when you're going to get another situation with 2 or 3 on base at the same time, and you're not facing the opponents' best late-game relievers yet, so you have to go for it.
Kyle
2:53
If Justin Turner wants a 2-3 year deal at age 39, will there be contenders lining up to offer him one? Or will he have to settle for a team that primary wants him to eat ABs and be a clubhouse leader for young players, like the Pirates or Nats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
There's probably no three-year guarantee out there for him but more likely a two-year deal similar to the one he's on and could opt out of. The difference between this year and last year, however, is that he played so little afield (~400 innings) that it will be hard to sell him as an everyday infielder
RG
2:57
Where can I find details on postseason compensation for players? My understanding is their salaries are for work completed in spring training and through the regular season, so the team doesn't owe them extra salary for playoff games. I believe most pro leagues give bonuses to the teams and players for winning rounds in playoffs, but doesn't this mean that every home playoff game is an absolute goldmine for the team? Huge sales, tv money, merch, food and beer sales, and no on-field payroll costs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
The gate receipts are divided between the league and the players based on a percentage-based system over certain games. Maury Brown explained it here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2022/11/25/with-addition-of-wi...
Dmytro
2:58
Was arguing with a buddy.. could Barry Bonds hit a HR at this age against a grooved pitch if he stepped into the box?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Probably, especially if Lance Lynn is pitching
Wireless Joe Jackson
2:59
Yo, where all the postseason game chats at?  Seriously, I love those and they're often not very well advertised or don't have a published schedule.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
They're not an everyday occurrence, but I'm sure we'll have at least another day/night of them soon
v2micca
3:02
Do the Padres just run it all back out there in 2024 and hope for better results?  It feels like they started coming together down the stretch, but it was just too late to make up lost ground.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I think we'll see some kind of shakeup, because they need to cut payroll and replace Snell. My guess is that they deal Soto and perhaps Cronenworth as well
Justin
3:03
Do you feel like Miguel Cabrera is an underrated all time great, like in the mold of a Frank Robinson or Eddie Murray? Without me being able to provide any support for my feeling or perspective, am I out of line to say he should’ve gotten a lot more attention with what he achieved?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
I think there's a massive gulf between Frank Robinson and Murray or Cabrera — something on the order of 40 WAR and that's before getting into Robinson's pioneering role as the game's first Black manager and as an executive.

Cabrera had a great career and is on the short list (along with Murray) of players with 3,000 hits and 500 homers. As for impacts, he won the Triple Crown and two MVP awards, one of which inflamed a culture war that still hasn't entirely ended. I don't think he's particularly shortchanged for positive attention. That said, the last seven years of his career were an utter waste in terms of his performance, and he had off-field issues that diminish his standing as well.
Justin
3:10
Will Yanier Diaz be the best offensive catcher since Mike Piazza? Diaz’s statcast numbers are pretty awesome for a backstop
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
He had a very promising rookie season but let's not get ahead of ourselves by comparing him to the best-hitting AL/NL catcher of all time. He can still be an excellent player without measuring up
Wireless Joe Jackson
3:12
Chat-related:  Will we get an Esteban Rivera game chat?  I'm pretty sure that would be really interesting, in the sense that he's going to notice things that I wouldn't during the game.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
He's got a great eye for the game, indeed. I don't know what his schedule is like, so maybe reach out to him on social media to ask
Prince
3:13
How much should playoffs impact HOF candidacy?  Lindor is a more appealing candidate than Correa from their statline, but how much should one consider Correa's sterling postseason stats?  (Obviously, this was probably a big component of Ortiz's candidacy.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
It's a subjective decision made by each voter as to how to weigh postseason contributions. Correa's case is a bit more muddied than most for obvious reasons, but he's definitely had some big moments. More likely than not it won't be an either/or decision regarding Lindor and Correa; the Hall certainly has room for both if they maintain the excellence they've shown thus far (though Correa really needs this season not to be part of a downward trend)
Given the Stakes
3:15
Was that the single most exciting play in baseball history?!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
More exciting than Mazeroski's World Series-ending homer in 1960 or Thomson's Shot Heard 'Round the World? Probably not. But pretty special nonetheless.
Iso Joe
3:17
How are you feeling about the Twins chances of pulling off the upset given their better rotation depth with Gray starting today, potentially Ryan tomorrow and Pablo Lopez lurking in a potential Game 5 with Houston only being able to use Verlander either on short rest or having to be saved up for a decisive game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
I think a lot depends on whether Cristian Javier pitches to the level we know he's capable of. The Twins have a real shot here but the Astros aren't going to roll over for them
Refugee
3:19
What did we miss about the Rangers? ZiPS and PECOTA projected 79 wins, which they "only" over-performed by 11, but their record by base runs adds another excess 7 wins. They did this mostly without Jacob Degrom and without Jung, Seager, and Heim for stretches of the season. You can't predict the Montgomery and Chapman trades, obviously.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
For one thing, Jung, Semien, Seager, Heim, and García all outdid their projections by a notable margin, though on the flip side obviously deGrom got hurt, and their rotation collectively fell short of its projection and the bullpen, ugh.
The Oriole Bird
3:24
More likely HOFer: Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschman?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Gunnar, because there's a big difference between reaching the majors at 22 and doing so at 24. Doesn't mean I think Adley lacks the talent to make it, just that a later start makes it a bit harder
Cat Latos
3:26
Can we pour one out for Kershaw?  I can't imagine LAD is gonna stay alive long enough for him to pitch again, and he's gotta be looking pretty hard at retirement.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
I dearly hope we haven't seen the last of Kershaw because that would be a bum note to go out on. It's possible that defeat and the pursuit of 3,000 strikeouts motivates him to return for another year, but we don't know exactly what's going on inside that shoulder, and if it's something major I'm not sure he has the stomach for an arduous rehab. We'll see
John
3:29
I'm a rabid follower of all things HOF.  And I love watching the tracker each year as the votes roll in but I wonder whether writers should not give their votes to Thibs until the last day votes can be submitted.  I feel like the early release of votes along with rationales creates group-think and influences how people who are late submitters vote
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
the "groupthink" was there long before the ballot tracker — writers discuss their ballots with each other, and coalesce around certain candidates; how else to explain the gradual or sharp increases in voting % from times before the Tracker and social media made election season into a spectator sport? The Hall itself is happy to get the extra attention that comes with the slow drip of ballot releases; they could certainly vocalize a dislike of the current state of things if they felt it was harming interest in the elections, but they have not.
Anon21
3:32
Should Atlanta start Elder or Smith-Shawver tomorrow? Elder has been looking extremely fatigued for weeks and probably would not have gotten a start if Morton wasn't hurt; Smith-Shawver probably has more in the tank but is maybe just not Major League ready, per Alex Eisert's recent article.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
I think either way you're probably getting into the bullpen pretty quickly. Small sample but Smith-Shawver's got terrible numbers against lefties whereas Elder is pretty level, and that may be a factor in the decision.
Tyler
3:36
Do you think there’s any value in comparing a total team WAR, particularly when comparing teams from different years? I ran this by Tom Tango on Twitter a few years back and he basically said it wasn’t worthwhile.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
It's not something I make a habit of comparing across seasons, tbh. More useful comparing in-season as far as single or aggregate positions or parts of a pitching staff go, for my purposes.
3:38
Like for Replacement Level Killers, which teams are getting the least from their second basemen, or which team has the most valuable rotation, stuff like that.
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