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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/11/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
4:02
Hey folks, welcome to a postseason off-day edition of my chat. Frankly, Ii'm a little relieved not to have a baseball game  for the second night in a row because of how out-of-whack my sleep schedule and that of the rest of my household (baseball-editing wife and two-year-old toddler) is.
I've got a big NLCS preview-ish type thing going up tomorrow morning that explores some of the contrasts between the Brewers and Dodgers. It's by no means comprehensive, but it sure is long!
kderg
4:02
How much do you believe that the Yankees thought Monday night’s game started at 8? On the one hand, someone must have double checked. On the other hand Severino’s late warmup, Gary’s fingernails were unpainted in the first, Gardner wasn’t wearing metal cleats in the first.
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:03
I don't believe there was any mistake regarding the time. This is a non-story.
4:04
Boone made plenty of mistakes during the ALDS, some of which he wasn't very clear about explaining the thought process behind in pre- and postgame interviews. He has said that he had no issue with Severino's warm-up time, and on that note, I have no reason to doubt him.
Bruce
4:05
What kind of a contract would Stanton get if he was a FA this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:09
I'm not sure he'd get 13 years and $300 million plus, but I wouldn't  be at all surprised if he could go get something like 7/$220M (which is what my first-cut attempt at the FG contract estimator came up with) to $240M
Trixie
4:09
Do you believe the D-Backs will do a full-scale rebuild or only a partial rebuild?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:13
I think they're so obsessed over payroll — and particularly with Greinke taking up 25% of it — that they'll do some kind of rebuild, and but I'm not sure whether what they do will be drastic enough for them not to be of particular competitive concern in 2019. They're losing Corbin and Pollock to free agency, and they have a lousy farm system, but they do still have some good pitchers, and it seems silly to break the core apart. Then again, it seems like they're itching to blow it up, so...
Trixie
4:13
It's almost a certainty that Corbin is going to the Yankees, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:14
I suspect the Yankees will be very interested but they'll hardly be the only ones, and it's not automatic for him to want to play in NY, and pitch in that ballpark.
Matt
4:14
I know that MLB will never, ever force the Wilpons to sell, but if the next GM does as poorly as the hiring process might indicate, would Manfred feel compelled to install another caretaker a la Alderson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:15
I think it's really easy to throw potshots at the Mets' hiring process, and I do so quite frequently, but I highly doubt MLB will intercede in the process.
Trixie
4:16
Do Giants' fans have anything to be optimistic about next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:19
They have a great ballpark and a future Hall of Famer in Buster Posey, but a lot of the rest is up in the air. Will they keep Bumgarner or trade him? Will Dereck Rodriguez continue developing? Will Longoria, Crawford, Panik and about 12 other underperformers bounce back? Will Brandon Belt stay healthy?

Like I said, it's a great ballpark.
Marc
4:20
was there ever much of a narrative about what happened to Kahnle? If he was even 75% of what he was 16/17, would the yankees pen have been the best ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:23
His command was off and his velocity was way down, and so the Yankees stashed him in the minors (thereby clawing back some service time, I think). A fully functioning Kahnle would have strengthened the bullpen but the thing you have to remember is that it was always going to be a rarity to have so many hard-throwing relievers healthy and effective at the same time, so it shouldn't be a surprise that at least one of them fell out of whack.
Jake Junis Priest
4:23
You need to come to the West Coast! Playoff games starting at 5 is life changing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:25
It would be lovely to cover some postseason baseball on the west coast but it's not in the cards for me this season (neither Emma nor I can really travel during the playoffs without placing an undue burden on the other one with regards to child care). The Yankees' elimination means that I've probably visited my last press box for the year, but at least the commute to and from the couch and the home office is short.
Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon
4:25
What percent chance the Royals misread their situation this offseason and spend on another round of mediocre veteran free agents?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:29
I don't think what they did was a misreading so much as a refusal to go the drastic rebuild route. I'm sure they'll stock up on mediocrity and remain in the 60-win range rather than the 50-win range.
A Tribe Called Kipnis
4:30
Do you expect a decent jump in votes for most HOF ballot holdovers with Rivera the only newcomer with a shot at immediate induction?  (Halladay looks destined to the Mussina zone)
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:33
I think Halladay's death strongly increases the likelihood that he'll be elected, and quickly. Rivera is obviously the top candidate but new guys like Pettitte and Helton will pull votes as well. I expect we'll see Edgar Martinez come close (if not over and PLEASE let it be OVER) to 75% and many of the compelling holdovers to gain ground, with Mussina probably the best positioned, Rolen probably the most in need in order to get his candidacy on path, and Walker with a late run that will help to position him for a better fate in front of the Today's Game committee down the road.
Roger
4:33
Would you rather have Christian Yelich on his existing contract (controlled through 2022 for about 52 million) or Bryce Harper on a 10-year, 350 million dollar deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:34
that's a pretty easy call for Yelich, a comparatively risk-free move if the only alternative is a megadeal for Harper.
Willie hears ya Willie dont care
4:34
What is the Dodgers' contingency plan if they lose Kershaw?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:37
If Kersahw were to leave, I suspect Corbin and Keuchel would be their top targets via free agency, and reacquiring Greinke may be another option if the Dbacks are desperate enough to move him within the division. They've got plenty of depth with which to pursue other trades, as well.
Dan
4:37
I know you're sticking with baseball-reference WAR for JAWS, and I'm completely fine with that, but have you ever considered writing a piece on the difference if you use fangraphs WAR? For instance, Andy Pettite has 60.2 career/34.1 peak using b-r, but is 68.9/36.4 on this site. Most players won't have that big of a gap, but it seems potentially interesting.
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:41
At some point, yes, I'll probably take some kind of look at what the ramifications of fWAR, but I'm not porting JAWS over anytime soon. I just don't think fWAR does great at handling low-K, low-HR periods when it comes to pitcher value.
Matt
4:42
I meant that comment re: Mets GM to mean more about the next Gm after the one to be hired this offseason. Say the Mets hire Larocque or somebody else over their heads and the situation devolves (which is something that can always happen with this franchise), would MLB then feel compelled to do something?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:43
You're talking about two steps worth of hypotheticals, at which point you can make up all kinds of scenarios whose likelihoods are probably very slim.
Bobbb
4:43
Do the Dodgers resign Kershaw past 5 years? What AAV, $30M? Does a 5/150 deal get it done?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:45
Eh, I just don't know. I think 5/$150M might be a bit high as far as a proper valuation goes, but I also think the Dodgers will be willing to overpay where few other teams will unless they're trying to buy some credibility from their fans.
adambulldog
4:45
Graig Nettles for Hall of Fame? He is very close to the JAWS standard. Does his ALCS MVP award push him over the top for you? What about his salacious book, Balls?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:49
I've always thought highly of Nettles — his defensive wizardry, particularly in Game 3 of the 1978 World Series, left an indelible impression on my childhood. I think he got a raw deal from voters due to his low batting average and failure to end Brooks Robinson's streak of 37 straight Gold Gloves. He's basically right at the career/peak/JAWS standards for 3B but does poorly on the Hall of Fame Monitor; a single ALCS MVP doesn't mean a whole lot in that context.

Maybe 15-20 years ago ,I picked up a copy of Balls and read maybe the  first 50 pages of it and enjoyed, but I left it at one East Village taqueria or another and never replaced it.
Acuña Matata
4:50
Edgar has to be a shoe-in for the Hall this time right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:52
He got 70.4% last time around. I'd like to think he's a sure thing but the crowded ballot always makes me nervous, and I'd take nothing for granted with regards to him finding the remaining votes (maybe 20?) he needs. It probably works out for him, but he needs a whip like Jonah Keri was for Tim Raines in order to be a shoe-in.
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
4:52
Maybe I'm just a bitter Mets fan, but it seems to me that the Brewers got awfully lucky this year. They traded for Yelich and signed Cain, both of whom had MVP-type years. They signed Jhoulys Chacín, and he had the best year of his career. They traded a top prospect, Lewis Brinson, who kind of bombed. When the Mets trade away prospects, they turn into Nolan Ryans. When they sign free agents, they turn into Anthony Swarzack. When they trade for veterans, they turn into Jim Fregosi. Why do the baseball gods hate us so?
AvatarJay Jaffe
4:54
Probably because of  your moral failings. Are you a lousy tipper at restaurants? Ever kill a bug for no reason? Pee with the seat down at a friend's house? Drive 45 mph in a 20 mph zone? I think we can definitively trace all of the Mets' problems to fans doing stuff like that.
Mike
4:55
Would the Yankees consider going for Machado and Harper, and using the opener strategy with Loaisiga, Sheffield, and German to go with Tanaka and Severino?
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