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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/11/18

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Jay Jaffe

4:58

Put down the bong, Mike. There's absolutely no way they're getting that crazy with the rotation, and they already have one of the sport's biggest contracts in Stanton. With a crowded outfield even if they decline Gardner's option, I'm skeptical that they pursue Harper; Machado seems more likely, as a 3B, which would open up a trade of Andujar.

Bottom line is they have a lot of options this winter but Sign Expensive Hitters and Neglect the Rotation seems pretty unlikely.

tokenpadre

4:59

What should the Yankees do with Andujar? Keep at third? Move to 1B/LF? Trade?

Jay Jaffe

5:01

I think it all depends upon whether Machado is willing to play 3B and interested in signing with the Yankees. If not, I think you give him another year to try improving at 3B. LF probably isn't an option because the asymmetry of Yankee Stadium makes it almost a requirement to have a CF-type out there (like Gardner or eventually Frazier).

kderg

5:01

If you had a vote in 2011, would you have voted for Kevin Brown for HOF? Do you think he ever has a chance to get in?

Jay Jaffe

5:05

I wasn't particularly gung-ho on him at the time (see https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/12611/prospectus-hit-a...) but he wasn't that far off the mark using BP WAR (which I used for JAWS until the 2013 ballot). I think he looks a bit better in hindsight, but he wasn't exactly loved universally AND he was in the Mitchell Report.
Never is a long time but I don't expect to see him in Cooperstown anytime soon.

Matt

5:06

How were Scientists?

Jay Jaffe

5:11

Oh man, that show was fantastic! I'm so glad I went.

For those who don't know... the Scientists were an Australian band that I think could best be described as some unholy swamp punk amalgamation of Creedence Clearwater Revival and the Stooges. They were active in the late '70s and '80s, introduced to my ears in the early '80s thanks to a Sub Pop compilation (they were a big influence on Mudhoney, for one), and only this year reunited for their first ever US tour (they played a reunion one-off in 2010).

5:12

I wanted to go from the moment their two shows in Brooklyn were announced but chose to wait on tickets until MLB revealed its postseason schedule, and in the meantime the show sold out. After failing to come up with a ticket, I went straight to the venue in hopes that somebody would have a spare, and sure enough, when I naively asked at the door despite a sign that said SHOW SOLD OUT. NO TICKETS AVAILABLE was told that a guy who was already in the venue had a spare and to ask at the back desk. Voila, I was in! and the show was outstanding.

Fat Matt

5:12

I don't think Abreu is a hall of famer, but will he last more than a year on the ballot when he becomes eligible?

Jay Jaffe

5:12

I'd be surprised. At best he'd get Wagneresque support in the 10% range.

Jeff

5:12

Short of on the books bankruptcy or some kind of Donald Sterling-esque malfeasance, will there ever be anything that compels MLB to solve the Wilpon issue?

Jay Jaffe

5:13

Nope.

Trent

5:14

Sale, Machado, Harper, or Yelich: Which of the 2010 first round draft picks will end his career with the most WAR (for reference, Sale has a sizeable lead by bWAR, but the others obviously have youth on their side: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2010&draft_round=1&d...)

Jay Jaffe

5:15

My money is on Machado, who's got the lead among the three position players and plays the toughest position even if he moves to 3B, which is to say that he'll continue to accrue value more quickly than the others.

High Strikes Low Balls

5:15

Do you feel your stache carries on the legacy of Burt Reynolds?

Jay Jaffe

5:16

No one person's stache can do that alone but I'd like to think mine helps. It certainly owes Burt a debt.

NatsFan

5:16

What does a Rendon extension look like? That’s the move the Nats need to make this offseason IMO.

Jay Jaffe

5:19

Good question. I haven't thought too hard about what kind of numbers would look like, but as he's just a year from free agency, and as the Nationals are, how do you say, dysfunctional, i'm not sold on the idea he should pursue an extension there rather than testing the market.

Guest

5:20

Boston needs to target some relievers in the offseason right? I doubt the Barnes/Workman/ Brasier trio will function as well without Kimbrel at the back

Jay Jaffe

5:24

BREAKING: Every team needs to target some relievers in the offseason. And at the July 31 and August 31 deadlines.

We'll see how October plays out, but of course if Kimbrel walks they'll need to signficantly revamp the unit. While I think they'd love to keep Kimbrel, they ran a $233 million payroll this year, and don't have a whole lot coming off the books.

Sad fan

5:24

I don’t see a logical landing spot for Harper. Even DC doesn’t make sense. Where does he end up?

Jay Jaffe

5:27

The Cubs make some sense to me (they could trade Schwarber) as do the Dodgers and Giants. I actually wouldn't be surprised if he stayed in Washington. Whatever deal he gets, I strongly suspect it will have an opt out to allow him to re-test the market in 2-3 years and hopefully hit it on the heels of a better walk year.

Hazeltine

5:28

What would a contract look like for Nolan Arenado if he were a FA? Would it be more appealing to trade for him and get him under contract or to pursue Manny Machado?

Jay Jaffe

5:30

It wouldn't surprise me if Arenado got a six- or seven-year deal north of $200 million at all. I can't see him not testing the free agent market, given that, so trading a big package for him only to let him walk in a year makes little sense. If you want that caliber of talent, you go after Machado now or you sit on your hands for a year.

Rockie Dangerfield

5:30

I'm seeing an alarming number of Rockies fans champing at the bit to trade Arenado this winter. That seems premature to me. He doesn't have enough team control remaining to bring back a huge haul, and moving him would torpedo the team's chances for next season. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe

5:34

i sort of get the reasoning. Their lineup is so incredibly stars-and-scrubby (Arenado, Story and Blackmon were the only above-average hitters) that maybe they can hope they can upgrade multiple positions when dealing Arenado. To me, though, squandering this wealth of young pitching that they've quietly assembled is a mistake. I think being aggressive in the free agent market to try one more shot with Arenado — say, by signing Harper, who would hit 50 home runs while playing half his games at Coors — is a better play.

Andy

5:34

Is Ohtani going to play exclusively DH next year? Could he play 1B while recovering from TJ? Is it risky to throw a baseball at all in that situation, or only to throw it hard, many times?

Jay Jaffe

5:36

If the Angels didn't use Ohtani in the field when he was healthy, what makes you think they would when he's recovering? There's no way they risk him playing the field next year, at an unfamiliar position, if they intend to keep him pitching.

5:37

OK folks, I've got to go chase a 2-year-old around, and tonight hopefully catch up on Better Call Saul and Lodge 49. Thanks for stopping by, and get your arm in shape for the LCS, because we might need a few innings from you.

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