JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/18/18

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Jay Jaffe

12:46

Dethroning the defending champions is always a big deal even if they're not the powerhouse of yesteryear. That said, no 108-win team with a $230-millionish payroll ever gets to call themselves the underdog, it's right there on page 1 of the unwritten rules.

stever20

12:47

I loved Dave Roberts decision to bat Kershaw in the 7th yesterday up 3-1, even with taking him out in the 8th. Saved a PH in Dozier or Kemp that could have been huge had the game stayed close. Your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

12:50

Having taken Roberts to task for NOT hitting for Buehler in Game 3, I felt I needed to revisit the decisions, and wrote about them in today's piece. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-gambit-versus-the-ace/

I leaned towards pinch-hitting, and Roberts even was before Barnes' game-tying single. That said, I understand why Roberts would be committed to his superstar, and he had settled down. To me, the problem is that you don't know whether his next inning is a 10-pitch breeze or a 30-pitch slog. Roberts gambled and won.

12:51

As to the specifics of him hitting, I can see not burning a pinch-hitter when you're leading and have been going through bench pieces like crazy, and Kershaw is capable of some pretty dogged at-bats.

Phil

12:51

Kershaw seemed to throw more and more of his breaking stuff as the game went on, and it seemed to work well. Is that the Kershaw you think we see going forward - one who pitches "backwards" so to speak, and only throws his fastball 20-30% of the time?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

Yeah, unless after a winter of rest and recuperation his fastball regains a couple clicks. Somewhere in the broadcast, over the noise of my daughter playing with some infernal V-Tech-chipped torture device from hell, I heard Smoltz (?) say something to the effect that Kershaw believes he can restore some velocity. I'd like to know more, and wonder if he's deliberately holding back a bit.

Jonny

12:54

According to Baseball Prospectus' WARP, Brian McCann is already at 60, higher than Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Russell Martin, and even Ivan Rodriguez. Do you think McCann has any chance at the Hall of Fame? Do/should voters look at framing?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

I don't think McCann has a strong shot, but I do think the voters will have to look closely at framing data when the time comes. I examined the issue and showed the rankings of McCann, Martin and the others you mention in connection to a piece on Yadier Molina in July https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yadier-molinas-climb-towards-coopersto...

Sloth

12:57

Were Joey Votto's hall chances hurt in a significant by a somewhat down year?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

I don't think so. He's got the WAR7 peak stuff and the MVP and All-Star stuff, what he needs is bulk — most notably 2,000 hits (he's at 1,769) and 300 homers (269). Plenty of time for both, and I think he'll be fine even as he declines a bit.

Raymond

1:02

According to the Baseball Gauge, the Red Sox best 3 players by championship WPA have been Bradley, Barnes and Brasier. Thats one outfielder that everyone wanted to bench in mid-may, one reliever with a 4.52 BB/9, and one reliever who wasnt in the majors until July.

Jay Jaffe

1:03

Baseball never fails to baseball. That's why we keep coming back, even when it burns us — if the outcomes were so obvious, we'd never give a rat's ass about this crazy sport played by grown men in pajamas.

Matchups

1:04

At what point does it become possible a batter really has a pitcher's number (or vice versa)? Like, it's still only been like 20 PAs but does it really seem Sanchez owns a Price, or is Sanchez just good? Or when Manny or Edgar hit well against Rivera? You're never going to get a full season sample's worth, so is it just meaningless?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

You're never going to get complete statistical validity in a head-to-head sample. If you've got an extreme performance even if it's over half a dozen PA, it's worth exploring the when and why. Re: Edgar vs. Mo, the former was 5-for-6 vs. the latter when he was a rookie with an ERA above 5.00, facing him multiple times in the game as a starter or reliever, so I'd eye that part with skepticism.

But I think one can make a reasonably informed decision upon investigation. 3-for-6 or 5-for-8 doesn't tell you much on its own. but if it's 3-for-6 against a guy who's similar to other guys he beats up on (say, righties who rely upon sliders), then you may have something worth using.

Matt

1:09

Man I know a number of dominos would have to fall but Schwarber would look great in Rockies purple.

Jay Jaffe

1:09

Dear Baby Commissioner Jesus Please Make This Happen.

Six Ten

1:10

What is up with Kimbrel? Part of the answer is the Astros and Yankees are good, but that doesn't seem like the whole answer.

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Have to wonder if a decline phase has begun. Likewise with Jansen. They can't all be Mariano Rivera.

Rick

1:11

I love how last season, all we heard was the Yankees were a new dynasty that was going to win the next 10 WS because they added Stanton. Now a year later, they're wanting out from underneath the contract. Nice

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Do they? or is it just talk radio idiots and irate fans? I haven't seen anything to suggest the team really believes it has a problem with its commitment to Stanton.

Robby

1:12

Can the Padres get Grienke for Myers? Diamondbacks save a lot of $, Pads spend a little more but get rid of a contract as well. Myers has hit really well in Arizona and he can play 1B if they move on from Goldschmitt or corner OF.

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Offhand it seems like a trade that might work but probably not save as much money as you'd think initially without the balancing of other talent as part of the deal. Greinke does have a 15-team no-trade clause and while I can say I'd welcome retiring to San Diego some day, he may want a more immediately competitive situation and/or eye their organization with some wariness given the seemingly endless cycle of building and rebuilding.

Beasy Bee

1:15

Hey Jay, I appreciate your takes. They usually make me think more deeply about all the going-ons. So what did you see: HR, interference, something else?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

I didn't see the whole thing unfold in real time. I thought Jeff Sullivan's dissection https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fan-interference-call-was-probably... was about as good as you'l find (no surprise given his talents), and he convinced me that while there was ultimately no clarity, the visual evidence pointed towards the interference call.

Still, it's a shame that such a play could have affected the outcome of a playoff game. I can't blame the Astros and their fans for feeling they got screwed, and had the call gone the other way, likewise for the Red Sox. I also would have preferred that the umpire central to the call was somebody besides Joe West given his penchant for controversy, but here we are.

Finn

1:19

Should the Astros have started Verlander on short rest and then used Morton/committee against the riff-raff Boston will use today?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

When you see how hard even the best pitchers in the postseason have to grind to get through 5 innings— JV included — you understand why going on short rest is such a big ask. I'm at the point where I don't think I'd go that route unless it's the deciding game of a series.

Six Ten

1:21

The Warsaw is one of the best venues I've ever been to. Zywiec in cans and pierogi on styrofoam plates while watching world class bands play in what looks like a small 1950s high school gym.

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I hadn't been to the Warsaw since seeing the New Pornographers there in.. 2002, maybe? Back when all of Brooklyn was terra incognita and we didn't even have Google on our phones. So I had only the vaguest of memories of the place. I did drink a couple cans of Zywiec and was pleasantly surprised that it didn't suck, but I missed out on the pierogis because I'd just eaten dinner when I got there in time for the final song of the opener (Pissed Jeans).

Curious Fellow

1:25

Could there be a stat such as K+/- to differentiate strikeout numbers between eras?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I have written about the need for K+ and proposed it to multiple site. It's in the works here behind the scenes, just a matter of priorities.

Roger

1:26

Will Yasmany Grandal be a good buy-low candidate this off-season? His post-season performance, after all, likely isn't as predictive as his otherwise very solid year.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Among the ideas in my queue is a piece on Grandal. I don't know that his postseason has changed my mind about what I've said in this space in weeks past regarding him vs. Wilson Ramos, but it's been reported that unnamed execs feel he's cost himself money with his rough series.

Frank

1:28

SB Nation had an article titled “The Brewers Used a Fake Starter and the Dodgers Used a Hall of Fame Starter.” So true and do you think this describes the difference between the two rosters?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

If Kershaw were Kershaw in the postseason all the time, and if the Brewers were throwing just some journeyman out there in place of Miley, then maybe that's an apt summation, but there was plenty of logic and chutzpah behind Counsell's move, and it actually worked pretty well until he stuck with Woodruff for the third time through.

Cue Levon Helm, narrator: "There was a demon that lived in the air. They said whoever challenged him would get hit hard the third time through the order..."

Beyond the salaries and name recognition, the gap between these two teams is actually very narrow, and both managers are managing their asses off in some creative ways. I love it.

Tom

1:32

Will the Machado incident affect his free-agent stock? I personally did not know until yesterday that he was regarded as a dirty player, so it seems like some teams might be less inclined to sign him now. Or would teams doing their due diligence have uncovered his reputation regardless?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

I don't think it will have much impact except at the margins, where a team that might have been a longshot to sign him opts not to pursue as a matter of PR. He's still going to get paid handsomely because the talent is real.

Tuna

1:35

I think COunsel's management has cost the Brewers dearly in this series. Especially the decision to use Hader with a 4 run lead (but not finish the game)... and the decision to empty the bench against Kenley Jansen instead of saving a pinch hitter for later

Jay Jaffe

1:39

The Hader move seems to me like a gaffe given their wariness of using him even on back-to-back days, but I think that's an exception to an otherwise outstanding job. It's a lot easier to forgive him for sticking too long with Woodruff knowing how gassed the bullpen was (and that he had apparently decided not to use Hader). As for emptying the bench against Jansen, I didn't have a problem with it. If you don't succeed at that point, you're at risk of losing in a walk-off anyway, might as well get the big bats out and go strength against strength instead of giving him an easy road through a two-inning stint.

Scott

1:40

How funny is it to see Sandy Leon pinch run?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

pretty damn funny

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat