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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/21/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:00
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of the playoffs. Apologies that it's been so long — on-site coverage, late nights, and quick turnarounds have made it hard to keep up here.
12:02
Anyway, I'm glad we've been treated to some awesome playoff games and series. Last night's ALCS Game 7 was a classic and a heartbreaker. As happy as I am for the Blue Jays fans in my life, i'm gutted for the Mariners fans — a group that includes colleagues and family.
12:03
Yesterday I wrote about Vladimir Guerrero's postseason for the ages https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-postseason-for-the-.... his wRC+ this October slipped from 302 to 280 during last night's win, dropping from 2nd since the start of division play in 1969 to 4th. Still impressive!
Anway, let's get on with the show
sodo mojo
12:03
I feel like watching Naylor in the playoffs he has to be a priority signing for the Mariners this offseason  do you think 3 years 60M gets it done or is he going to get a 4 year deal given his age?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
Heading into his age-29 season, coming off a very good season and the October showcase that he's had, he has every reason to seek a deal longer than three years. I wouldn't be surprised if he's after something much longer than that. I do believe the Mariners will make him a priority, but they shouldn't wimp out. They were so close to that elusive World Series trip this year, and going back to skimping on quality players is going to reduce their chances of getting to the next step.
Lars
12:07
How does playoff revenue work? Ticket prices/concessions in Seattle are expensive enough that it feels like one home playoff game would pay for one year of a future Naylor contract.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
12:11
As was shown several years ago back when I was at Baseball Prospectus, playoff appearances have a long-term effect on generating interest in a team in the form of creating revenue. for a team that has been on the brink of the playoffs in several years without getting in, then finally doing so, it's worth spending those marginal dollars to improve the long-term outlook.
Jake
12:11
Do you expect Rasmussen or Pepiot to get 200 innings in '26?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
Three pitchers threw 200 innings this season, and four last year. the last pitcher to throw 200 innings for the Rays was Chris Archer in 2017 (his third year in a row). So my answer isn't just no, it's an emphatic "absolutely not."
12:13
Expectations for starting pitchers have changed
and you'll need to adjust yours accordingly
Jake
12:15
Jonathan Aranda, product of luck or legit MLB hitter?  .400 BABIP and avgs on flyball/LD are insane.  Will be returning to Tropicana...do they sell high before then?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I wouldn't bet on another .400 BABIP but he's a legitimate offensive threat whose performance improved thanks to his ability to get the ball off the ground; his GB% fell from 50.5%% to 38.3% and his EV went up. I wrote about him way back in May when this was starting to take shape. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-long-awaited-jonathan-aranda-breakout/.

As to whether the Rays sell high, he's got another year before he's arb-eligible so I'd be surprised if they move him now.
Jos
12:18
The Blue Jays limited LHP options seem like a good matchup for Ohtani, but the dodgers dont have great RHRP for Vlad. Who's going to get those guys out in the 7th/8th/9th??
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
It's no secret that the Dodgers' biggest weakness is their bullpen. Their trust tree is no taller than some of my father's bonsai. They've been able to get around that thanks to starting pitchers going deep, and using some starters as relievers. I suspect they'll approach the World Series similarly  while also not getting too hung up on strict platoon splits. Lefty Jack Dreyer, for example, held righties to a .256 wOBA, and Alex Vesia .295. the path to beating the Dodgers certainly runs through their bullpen, though.
G
12:22
Will anyone (PIT, CLE, KC) send the Phillies, say...$5-10 million for Castellanos?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
maybe the White Sox send a couple million. I wouldn't hold my breath.
ceeeff
12:23
what do you think the Yankees do this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
I think the big things are letting Goldschmidt and Williams walk, making a strong run at retaining Bellinger (whom i think is more likely to fit their budget than Kyle Tucker), adding some depth to the outfield in case Dominguez continues to disappoint, adding some infield depth to overcome the early outage of Volpe and the platoon issues of McMahon, spending on the bullpen and a mid/back rotation starter to offset the early loss of Rodón.
Thomas
12:26
Springer's season and postseason heroics have turned me from thinking he has 0 chance at the Hall, to having a marginal case if he has a couple more good years left in. What do you think he needs to do to get over the sign stealing hump, and at least stick on the ballott for a few years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
I don't see much of a path tbh. He's 35, has a career/peak/JAWS of 42.3/32.8/37.5, and hasn't had a 5-WAR season since 2019, when the Astros may have still been engaged in some shenanigans.
Sonny
12:28
As much as I was rooting for Seattle I think Toronto is the tougher matchup for LA. A turbocharged Brewers offense with low strikeouts but solid power could keep LA’s pitching honest. Or is this wishful thinking and LA is too good and healthy to be beat?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
nobody is too good/healthy to be beaten in a short series. The Dodgers have generally played very good defense this October but the Blue Jays are a better contact team, with more depth and power, than the Brewers had. Their biggest issue IMO is their starting pitching, which will need to work deeper to avoid overexposing their relievers.
Jake
12:31
Are you on bluesky or X? We miss the mustachioed metrics man
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
I'm on Bluesky and have been for over 2 years! @jayjaffe.bsky.social is the handle. I did not delete my account on Twitter, but it is locked and I no longer post there — once in awhile somebody reaches out via DMs there
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:35
Is leaving Muñoz in the pen the worst piece of single-gamr bullpen mismanagement since Buck Showalter sat on Zack Britton?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
It's pretty bad but at least Muñoz wasn't a sudden-death situation like no-Britton. I'm having a hard time coming up with a worse one on the spur of the moment, though.
Dan S.
12:37
Based on what you've seen from Bieber post TJS, do you think he's on track for a shorter, high-ish AAV deal with opt-outs? Or do you think he can get a long enough, robust enough deal to cash in now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I haven't seen enough out of Bieber to be confident that he can be the guy we saw from 2019–22 again, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's got a deal with an opt-out after 2026 to help him build towards something bigger.
Tom B
12:40
Are there any interesting platoon splits among Blue Jays hitters that Dodger fans should keep in mind?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
The Blue Jays do a fair bit of platooning to cover weaknesses, but the one that comes to mind is Ernie Clement, who during the regular season hit for a 146 wRC+ (.326/.351/.549) against lefties and 75 wRC+ (.254/.295/.327) against righties but has been playing every day in October and has come through against righties in some key spots. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/relentless-ernie-clement-and-blue-jays-ous...
Dan S.
12:43
Jackson Holliday had a disappointing rookie season. But his offensive stats, if underwhelming, weren't actually that far off from many projections (.304 wOBA, .321 xwOBA). Doing that at age 21 makes me reasonably confident he'll end up at least an above average bat.

Much more disappointing was his defense. He lacks the arm to play short, but he did not adapt well to full-time play at 2B. -8 OAA, -6 FRV, -10 DRS. Do you think he'll improve enough to be close to average there? I'm not sure what other options he has unless his sprint speed is enough to transition him to CF. He lacks the arm for a corner spot and his bat might be underwhelming there anyway.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Eric Longenhagen graded him at just 40 PV / 45 FV for defense, albeit with a 50 arm. He does have 82nd-percentile sprint speed, so I think that if shows he's not able to improve enough at second base, center field might be worth an experiment.
21127
12:46
Is there any thing that could happen in the WS to change Max's HoF odds?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
if he starts showing off his collection of Nazi paraphernalia or breaking out a Klansman hood, I think I'd start betting against his election. And to be clear, I don't expect that at all. But in terms of on-field performance? He's fine. He's had an incredible career but struggled this year. He had a great start last week but whatever happens from here on out is part of the normal ups and downs of being a 41-year-old with a ton of mileage on his arm.
The Ghost of Stieb's Slider
12:49
Not necessarily a question, but, this has to be one of the most lopsided "future Hall of Famer" matchups in the finale in a while, right? The Jays have the still-very-angry mortal remains of Scherzer and ... maybe Vladdy? vs. basically everyone on the Dodgers.... (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Kershaw, maybe Snell?, etc.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
4 to 2 in possible Hall of Famers is nothing new (not that I'm sold on Vladito getting there, at least yet), and even some teams that had 5-3, 4-2 or 3-1 edges in that department lost World Series (2001 and 2003 Yankees, 1996 and 1999 Braves). Those counts aren't prescriptive because players are in different stages of their careers; Clayton Kershaw isn't likely to determine the outcome of this World Series unless something has already gone very very wrong for the Dodgers https://stathead.com/tiny/ckgsS
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