JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 10/21/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 10/21/25

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Alex R

12:53

As a frustrated Atlanta fan watching teams who aren't mine, I'm musing about what separates good teams from good playoff teams. Atlanta needs a manager, a shortstop, and lot more depth. Which would you prioritize, and how would you do it?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

That's a Baseball Prospectus Annual essay, not a chat question I can answer succinctly.

Erik

12:53

With Bo Bichette confident he’s coming back for the World Series, how much do you think a) getting back and healthy is important to his offseason contract, and b) if his performance in the World Series can influence his earnings at all at this point.

Jay Jaffe

12:55

I don't think it will have a huge impact on his earnings; he's got a pass if he struggles because of the missed time. I do think that his rough defensive metrics and recent injuries — he's played just 355 games over the past 3 years — will work against him as a free agent.

Pinstripe Perry

12:55

Of the teams who got past the WC series coin flip, the two with the lowest K% made it to the WS. Is there a team building lesson in this about the value of putting the ball in play in October or is it all just small sample size theater?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

I think there's something to be said for contact ability — we've seen some defenses crumble in high-pressure situations when they needed to make plays. But I think it's a matter of valuing contact in the context of other attributes. A defensive whiz who makes good contact but has only modest power (say, Clement) can be a piece of a World Series team. A high-contact guy who doesn't bring much else to the table (Arraez unless he's hitting .330) is still not the type of guy I want to build around.

Mike

1:00

How low will the Twins budget get? Which of Ryan or Lopez, or both, will be traded?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

Man, i don't know but it's looking bleak; it wouldn't surprise me if they're around $100 mil. It's going to be easier to make an impact trade by dealing Ryan, who's still in his arb years, than Lopez, who's guaranteed over $40 million

Jake

1:02

Should Aaron Boone be fired? Strategically he's rather unoriginal and makes really bad at adjusting.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I think it's time for the Yankees to move on from Boone, but it's very clear that the Yankees value his other attributes enough to offset his in-game weaknesses. He's a players' manager who has solid buy-in within that clubhouse and from the GM and owner, and the franchise player has his vocal endorsement. So he's not going anywhere anytime soon unless the team faceplants out of the gate.

Jake

1:05

Rasmussen, had Cash not completely slammed on the breaks near the AS Break, was over 100 and that was on a 150 IP cutoff/5-6 inning starts.

Jay Jaffe

1:07

Yes, and that was coming off less than 75 innings over the previous two seasons due to UCL and other arm issues. They were never going to push him to 200.

Phil

1:10

Much is already being made of the Jays all-RHP pitching staff going up against the Dodgers Ohtani/Freeman/Muncy behemoth. A few Jays fans have noted Yesavage and Gausman have reverse splits, so they should be considered more like lefties. How much are you buying this?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

not much. Yesavage has three regular season starts and three posteason ones. Gausman had reverse splits in 2 of the past 3 seasons but his 3-year splits are level, and it's not like he overhauled his repertoire in that span.

Cromulent

1:11

Does Nelson Cruz not get enough credit (or interest) for the weird shape of his career? Are we likely to see someone bloom that late again?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

unfortunately one of the big things about the shape of Cruz's career is a PED suspension. Setting that aside, that path is the exception, not the norm, obviously, and I wonde what it would have looked like if he'd gotten a real shot at playing regularly before 27.

Phil

1:14

Any chance Tanner Scott or Michael Conforto make the WS squad for the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Scott maybe, if he's throwing the ball well and if Roberts and Friedman decide that he is a better fit for the roster than Kershaw. They've gone 9-1 without Conforto, with Kiké hitting well and holding his own defensively (that dive notwithstanding). I don't see why they'd change that up.

1:17

Can Ranger Suarez match/approach Framber's contract value this off-season? He's 2 years younger and has comparable numbers over the past 2 seasons.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

I think the only knock on Suarez is durability; he's never made 30 starts and has averaged just 25 over the past three seasons while making annual trips to the IL. He'll be paid well in free agency

Concerned in SF

1:19

Any thoughts on whether hiring Vitello will bring about a needed sea change in SF or whether they have more fundamental issues arising from, e.g., drafting, development, ownership?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

The change has been underway since Buster Posey took over from Farhan Zaidi; the managerial hire is just the latest move within that. It's going to take longer before we see how his regime fares regarding drafting and development

War2D2

1:22

Is it weird that I feel a kind of depressed letdown after the game, even though I wasn’t really rooting for either team? That homer by Springer was a gut punch and it’s like I channeled the disappointment of an entire region of fans. Baseball is the best until it’s the absolute worst.

Jay Jaffe

1:24

That was such a great series between two teams starved for a World Series berth. I'm a bit bummed that it's over as well, because those games were a lot of fun to watch. Baseball at its best (except for some of the managing)!

Ray Manzarek

1:25

Given they are looking at only one more year of Skubal do you think the Tigers will actually pony up for some starting pitching and a quality bat or two? They've got some nice talent on the vine but as a Tiger fan I wish they'd spend some of that Little Caesar's money and go all in.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I think they have to — that all-in approach certainly characterized Illich Sr.'s ownership, for better or worse, and now that they've made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons but not gotten as far as the ALCS I'd be surprised if they dial it back.

Tim L

1:27

With his amazing postseason and the high bar for 1B, how much more does Vladito need to do to get into the HOF conversation? I imagine it’s a large gap, but will that lessen over time due to the new thinking around 1B usage and him more than likely being the best at the position amongst his peers?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

A lot. He's had two Hall-caliber seasons out of seven. he's got a great bat, an early start to his career, and long-term security but he hasn't shown the perennial consistency of a HOF candidate. Annual 130-ish OPS+ without extra value on either defense or the bases isn't going to be enough be to carry him into Cooperstown unless he has a few World Series rings.

Matt

1:30

Where do you stand on how successful the Dodgers have been by outspending their competition? There are plenty of cheap owners making the product worse, but do you believe something should be done to curtail the runaway spending that goes beyond the luxury tax? Perhaps even more revenue sharing?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I think there are too many owners pocketing the revenue sharing money and skimping on payroll, and the mechanisms that one could put in place to try to prevent the Dodgers from spending more money are ones that are going to put more money in the pockets of the owners, not the players. So screw that.

The answer to competing with the Dodgers is to push the envelope the way the Padres have — it hasn't paid off with a World Series trip but they did bounce them in 2022 and were thisclose to winning last year's Division Series as well.

Jeff in Jersey

1:33

Hi Jay. How open are you to the argument Sam Miller has been making that, in the era of expanded postseasons, we should factor in postseason performance into HOF cases? Springer, for instance, has half a season's worth of AB's in the postseason and, while he's borderline at best in the regular season, the postseason really provides a lift in thinking of the value he's brought to teams.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

Postseason performances have always been factors in Hall of Fame deliberations. There are a bunch of pitchers in the Hall who had short-ish careers but starred in two World Series, to say nothing of all the Frisch/Terry VC guys who were part of multiple WS teams in STL or NY. I think postseason can push a borderline guy over the line but I don't see Springer as even a borderline guy; Pettitte is the example I'd use (and I did vote for him, once).

Welland Jackfish

1:36

Re Blue Jays platoons: With Santander injured, the biggest platoon the Jays will make is probably Davis Schneider in against Snell/other lefties

bringbackpologrounds

1:36

Surprised no one has mentioned Bo Bichette's impending return. Assuming he's about 90% healthy, how should TOR utilize him? Bo DH, Springer RF (IKF out)? Or is he relegated to PH status?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

I don't think there's much point to rostering Bichette if he's only a PH, so if he's on the roster it's to DH and send Springer into the field. Which means they could lose a few of his at-bats late in games if they need to switch him out for defensive purposes — he was rough out there in small samples (-6 DRS, -6 FRV in 282 innings).

johnny dANGER

1:39

in your hall of fame analysis, do you factor in lost time to things outside of a players control? I.E. Aaron Judge lost 100 games in 2020 and might lose time due a to strike that could have been an additional 4 WAR?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Sure, it's context for a player's career. Ain't gonna matter a damn bit for Aaron Judge's Hall of Fame case, he's well on his way.

1:41

But if you're asking whether I have a mathematical formula to credit guys with lost time, no, I don't — and we're already using current JAWS to measure against a player population that lost years to wars and partial seasons to strikes, and to shorter schedules, and... the terrain of baseball history isn't a flat one; every era has its quirks that need to be accounted for.

Erik

1:41

What are the chances that Bieber just takes his $16m player option and everyone is happy with it?

Jay Jaffe

1:42

I'm sure he can guarantee himself more money than that, whether in TOR or elsewhere.

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