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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –10/22/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the pre-World Series edition of my chat. And wow, what a matchup we have ahead of us. For once the two number one seeds (just the third time in this millennium after 2013 and 2020)...
12:03
and the two likely MVPs, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani (the subjects of an article that should go live as we chat)...
12:05
the most historically common matchup in World Series history (the Yankees have won eight out of 11 meetings), and one with great personal resonance, as I was an 11-year-old Dodgers fan the last time these two teams met in 1981.
Plus, i get to cover the New York end of the series. So yeah, pretty excited here.
(and apologies, my lunch just arrived so the beginning of this chat may be a bit slowed)
Ed
12:06
Is the Yankees SP Depth the biggest advantage in this series?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
I think so; we saw how hard it can be to string together a good bullpen game. At the same time, we also saw how comparatively little starting pitching mattered for the Dodgers, who have gotten a 6.038 ERA from their starters, who have averaged only about 3 2/3 innings per turn in the postseason.

I did my annual check-in on postseason starting pitching trends yesterday, btw. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/winning-ugly-a-look-at-this-years-postseas...
Fred
12:11
Rizzo hit much better than I expected in the ALCS, but also fielded much worse.  What do you see him being able to do in the WS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
I don't expect him to hit .429, as he did in the ALCS, and I don't expect him to be as bad defensively as he looked there. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see plenty of Oswaldo Cabrera, Defensive Replacement
Guest
12:15
Can't the world series just start already? No, Meg Rowley, noted baseball witch asked that one of the LCS go six games to keep to the original schedule. Also, good Lord man, let Freddie Freeman rest and recover a bit.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I'm sure Freddie isn't the only one using this time to heal (Rizzo is another) but four days in the doldrums feels like a lot.
Pitching Chaos
12:17
Is it wrong to say the WS will be decided by whether the Yankees "good enough" starters can be better than the Dodgers middle relief options?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
I think it's a good place to look for cues as to what's going to happen but it's worth noting that while Treinen has notched three saves, things are more fluid, as Roberts has used Phillips and Kopech to close in the not-too-distant past.
JK
12:20
Feels to me the Mets missed a golden opportunity; got hot and opponents weren't full strength.  I've had "future is bright" feelings before.  Convince me that's true?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
To my eyes, the case for that has as much to do with the David Stearns front office and Carlos Mendoza dugout as it does the roster. They're a very skilled pair; Stearns will have money to play with this winter with the likes of Alonso, Severino, Quintana, Bader and Martinez coming off the books (though I suspect some of them could be back), and I suspect Mendoza's in-game management will improve with experience. This could be a very different looking team but I think it's one in good hands.
wheelhouse
12:25
book it: nestor cortes the damaso marte to ohtani's ryan howard
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
it does sound like Cortes will be on the roster and could be a factor; the question is whether there are enough key situations for him to have such an impact. Color me skeptical given Cortes' relative unfamiliarity with high-leverage relief but your pick is noted here for posterity.
Billy eppler
12:26
How many years will Juan Soto get
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
probably something like a 13- or 14- year deal to jack up the sticker price but lower the AAV, and i suspect there will be opt-outs in there as well.
Not Not Jesse Winker
12:27
Do you think David Stearns will be disciplined to the point where he doesn't blow away the market in a deal for Soto?  Or doesn't take the opportunity to pull a Soto, Burnes, Alonso trifecta? They offered the most for Yamamoto but a small part of me is still worried Stearns isn't the big game hunter as much as an org builder and value seeker.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
The question doesn't come down to what Stearns wants, it's what Steve Cohen wants. If the owner says go get Soto, damn the cost, the Mets could land him.

I have a hard time seeing them keeping Alonso while also landing Burnes and Soto, especially when they have a ready-made option for first on a post-Alonso roster in Vientos (opening third for either Mauricio or Baty)
Ribald Acuna
12:30
Atlanta made a lot of moves to acquire Kelenic last offseason. Do you think he’s relegated to the bench going forward or is there still hope for him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I'm just about ready to give up on Kelenic as a full-time player, as the change of scenery wasn't enough to unlock his potential. He looks like a platoon guy to me.
Dan
12:31
Are the Yankees more or less likely to re-sign Juan Soto if they finish the job? Or are the events independent you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Independent — he'll tell you otherwise but I think getting here was a bigger deal than winning it. He's seen that the Soto Yankees are good enough to play for a championship. Money, and the chance to get back here via whatever team he chooses, will be what matters.
Mike Trout
12:34
What does Alonso's next contract look like and what would you offer? Seems like it'll be a landmine for whoever signs him but I wonder if Steve Cohen cares.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I don't see enough secondary skills in Alonso to go very high on him, maybe maxing out around 4/$100M. I don't think that will get it done, but a righty first baseman with no speed and defensive limitations isn't worth going 5+ years I don't think. Cohen may feel differently but I'd guess a lot hinges on how the other free agent pursuits play out.
WinTwins0410
12:37
Jay, do you expect a Hall of Fame Classic Baseball Committee ballot (with eight names) to be unveiled this week?  Last year, it dropped on a Thursday.  It dropped last year on Oct. 19 for a Dec. 3 meeting at the winter meetings.  This year, the winter meetings are 5 to 8 days later.  So in theory, the ballot would drop anytime from Oct. 24 to Oct. 27 -- is that what you're thinking?  Also, who's likeliest to appear on the eight-person ballot?  I'm predicting some combination of Dick Allen, Steve Garvey, Dave Parker, Maury Wills, Doc Adams, John Donaldson, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Billy Martin, George Scales, Ken Boyer, Vic Harris and Doc Adams, with Bobby Grich as a surprise.  That's 14 for an eight-man ballot.  Your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Ugh. Your math strongly suggests an announcement on Thursday and I absolutely hate that this gets dropped so close to the World Series. The time to do this would have been today — no games yesterday, none for a few more days.
12:41
I haven't given the makeup of the ballot a ton of thought beyond the fact that I don't like pitting the Negro Leagues figures against ones whom we've seen on so many ballots in the past, but I do expect Allen, Donaldson, Harris, and Adams to be four of the eight. I don't expect Grich.
Guest
12:42
Thoughts on Stanton’s HOF chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
Improving with his postseason success, that's for sure. I like his odds if he gets to a scandal-free 500 homers, but he's got 71 to go and probably needs three seasons to do that (hasn't had more than 35 in a season since 2018). He'll be short on JAWS but with the postseason stuff, the MVP, and as a Statcast marvel, he'll probably have enough to draw significant support
Nate
12:45
How many future HOFs are we watching in this Series?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
Most likely six: Judge, Soto, Cole, Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman (plus the injured Kershaw). Stanton i have at least one step down from those guys but still possible. Anybody else would have to be somebody whose major MLB accomplishments are mostly ahead of them, like Yamamoto
John B
12:49
T Tango says that a war metric for post season could easily be developed so that we could start assessing post-season WAR in HOF cases.  Is that something you could lobby for ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I'd be interested to see it but I don't think it solves everything  — having the opportunity to play in a World Series is largely out of a single player's control, and there's a danger in overreacting to small samples. I would be interested to see what an Ortiz or a Brock or Bumgarner has added but we already know from WPA that it's only a few wins at most.
Max
12:51
As a Dodger fan I'm wondering how you would you compare the Yankees pitching staff to the Padres.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I feel like the Padres had a stronger staff than the Yankees,  at least until Musgrove went down. Stronger 4-man rotation, at least with Cole not at full strength, and a more fearsome late-game trio that mixed lefty and righty
12:53
Tim Hill has had some big moments but I'd take Tanner Scott in terms of late-game lefty options.
Oddball Herrera
12:53
Trent Grisham is making the world series roster and providing a ray of hope for players everywhere with fraught relationships w/ the Mendoza line
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