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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –10/22/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Chris Taylor wipes his brow, secure in the knowledge that his .202 left him on the right side of the line.
Guest
12:54
Thoughts on roster changes going into the series? Do the Yankees activate Cortes and drop Stroman? Any other moves?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
I would; I don't see what Stroman was doing there if fresh-onto-the-roster Mark Leiter Jr. was the choice in those big spots once Hamilton got injured.
Guest
12:57
Jay, I feel like this World Series has a lot of future hall of famers. Betts, Freeman, Ohtani, Soto, Judge, and perhaps Stanton and Dave Roberts. Is this the most we’ve seen in a series in decades?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
I should have counted Roberts above, which would bring us to 8 if I also include Stanton. I think the last one of similar size was the 1996 World Series, with 10: Cox, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Chipper, Torre, Boggs, Raines, Rivera, Jeter. Andruw would make it 11.
JK
1:01
Schwarber deal a good comp for Alonso?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Schwarber was less valuable in his years leading up to free agency (10.2 WAR through age 28) but that's a sensible comp and contract (4/$79M). Alonso has produced 17.3 WAR through age 28 and I wouldn't be surprised if Boras is telling him he can get double that amount (though I don't think he will)
Mo Vaughn
1:03
Vientos looked good at third to my eyes, but the prevalent opinion is that he can’t hack it. How much are my eyes failing me here?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Vientos has made himself playable there, though had -4 FRV and -5 DRS this year. It's not that he couldn't continue there, it's that they have other young players who are more skilled defensively and a configuration with, say Baty/Mauricio at third and Mauricio/Acuña at second would seem to bump Vientos to first.
Benjamin
1:05
Are there really any non-NY teams that might pay for soto? Can't see philly w them already rocking such a high payroll, dodgers have to be close to maxed out...toronto?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
Toronto is said to be a threat, yes. If the Giants were ever going to take the $300M+ they planned to spend on Judge and then Correa, that would be another potential suitor though i think it would be a tougher sell for Soto. Cold the new Orioles owner go big? I guess we'll see.
Henry
1:07
Are GB pitchers truly more volatile than big K guys, even with same underlying metrics? (say FIP, xERA, xwOBA, Stuff+, Location+)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
yes because BABIP is subject to more season-to-season variance than K/BB/HR rates
Benjamin
1:08
Any insight on why there seems to be such a strong preference for Verdugo > Grisham? Virtually identical xwOBA with Verdugo being a negative defender & Grisham being positive?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
The Yankees absolutely do not view Verdugo as a negative defender. Boone won't shut up about his defense. They also do like his more contact-oriented approach within the mix of their lineup, and I know Grisham has sometimes been accused of being too passive at the plate. (36.5% swing rate!)
Jake
1:11
With the collapse of RSNs, it seems like there are four rich teams (NYY, NYM, PHI and LAD) and everyone else. Is there any way for MLB to mitigate this problem or is it just tough luck until whenever these cable deals end?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
I think MLB's efforts to bundle the orphaned teams for an in-market streaming package and the end of local blackouts could change things. There was a fair bit going round about this yesterday. https://awfulannouncing.com/mlb/rob-manfred-nationalize-mlb-media-stra...
Phil
1:13
I know the Dodgers keep saying it's not happening, but imagine it's game 7, they're out of pitchers... what are the chances we see Ohtani throw an inning? Is it truly 0%?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
You can imagine it all you want, but I don't see it happening. More likely it's Ben Casparius giving up the winning run in the 12th inning of Game 7 or something like that.
Mike Trout
1:14
Didn't there used to be a rule about a team not being able to re-sign their free agents for a certain period of time in the offseason after their window closes? What am I thinking of?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
Yes, it was awful and probably illegal.
1:16
Can't recall exactly when it ended but there was the famous Tim Raines game from 1987, where he went bananas against the Mets in an NBC Game of the Week in his May 2 debut.
Guest
1:16
Is there a rule that would prevent a player from doing dizzy bat prior to taking a home run trot?  And if not, why has this not happened?  That would be way more entertaining than merely tossing your bat as a celebration
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
I don't think there's a written rule to that effect but nobody with a goddamn lick of common sense is gonna do that because they'd be wearing the next pitch they face to the emergency room.
Sodo Mojo
1:17
Do you think the Mariner's should stand pat with the current Jrod, Raley, Arozarena, and Robles outfield or should they be shopping for upgrades at one of the corners?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
That should be a pretty decent group from which to make an outfield. Their bigger problem is the infield, where they don't have a single above-average performer.
Doc
1:19
More Mets!  Does Severino get a QO?  And, let's say they sign Soto, and let's say Winker remains unsigned that long:  do they bring him back to be a reasonably-priced DH or do they stick the displaced Marte there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
Sevy should get a QO; going year-to-year on a pitcher with his history would be ideal. A Marte/Winker DH platoon could work, but I don't see either of them being able to handle the full-time job well enough.
Phil
1:21
Are you taking the over or the under on Teoscar Hernandez getting a 3 year $72m deal this offseason? And does your answer depend on whether he has a big world series or not?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
Over. 4/$100Mish. A good World Series would help his cause but it's not essential.
Mike Trout
1:22
Dark horse for Soto: The Nationals?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
It's been mentioned enough that yeah, sure, ok. But I don't see him going back.
1:24
OK folks, that's enough outta me for now. Thanks so much for stopping by! And while i know the wait might be interminable, hold tight because I think this should be a memorable World Series.
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