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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –10/8/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat in my new Tuesday noon ET time slot. I'm still trying to wake up after a late night in the Bronx, where things quickly spiraled out of control for Carlos Rodón and the Yankees https://blogs.fangraphs.com/that-escalated-quickly-royals-rally-agains...
12:04
I was saddened to hear today about the death of Luis Tiant. Quite a memorable and colorful character, and a pitcher who I think probably belongs in the Hall of Fame. Wrote a bit about Tiant in light of S-JAWS a couple of years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-best-of-the-unens.... I'm going to try to figure out when I can fit in a tribute amid my playoff coverage.
12:05
Which reminds me, thank you to everyone who chimed in with a kind word about my Pete Rose piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-pete-rose-1941-2024-the-hustle-has-fin.... I got a very nice note yesterday from Mark Monroe, the director of the HBO documentary for which I was interviewed, Charlie Hustle and the Matter of Pete Rose. Check it out if you want a no-holds-barred look at a very complicated figure.
And now, on with the show
Phillies phan
12:05
Can you think of any possible reason for why the phillies bullpen decided to give up so many runs all of sudden? Matt Strahm had been solid all season and had duds back to back games
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
Because stuff like this inevitably happens? Even the best bullpens get knocked around once in awhile, because relief pitching is a high-variance job. Most of these guys are two-pitch pitchers, and if one of those pitches isn't working well, it's trouble. It's also worth remembering that particularly with division rivals, hitters can get multiple looks at a reliever and that can shift the advantage in their favor.
Guest
12:08
Is there a certain amount of plate appearances where you can move from just a sample size to indicative of a player's value? How many would that be for a playoff sample?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
It's definitely not enough to fit within a single playoff run.
12:09
Different stats stabilize — that is, become reliable indicators — at different points. We discuss this every April and May especially. Swing rates take about 50-60 PA and batted ball outcomes take about 60 BIP
Johnny5Alive
12:09
You rather be the Mets or Phillies right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
Probably still the Phillies as I like the depth of their rotation more, and that will be a factor the longer this series goes on.
Phil
12:10
Which would be a bigger upset series win, Detroit or KC? Not just given where each series is but the season to date?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Detroit, I think, because they were so far out of the picture for most of the season, and have gone on this run with a makeshift "rotation" where any one of us is likely to be called upon to pitch the first inning if it's not Tarik Skubal
Tom R
12:12
Which player do you think did the most to increase their HOF chances year? Gotta be Sale, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
Possibly Sale, whom I wrote about here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2024-progress-rep...) and Dan Szymborski wrote about as well (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-chris-sale-could-200-wins-be-the-new-3...). I'd also put in plugs for Francisco Lindor, who reached the 40-WAR peak score, climbed to 20th in JAWS, and turned in an MVP-caliber season; Aaron Judge, who broke the 10-WAR mark for the second time in three years (11.7 bWAR!!!) and the 50-WAR peak score; and Shohei Ohtani, who put up an unprecedented 50 HR-50 SB season and appears en route to his third MVP award. Those are the kind of credentials that tend to get a guy a plaque
Jim
12:15
If the Mets lose the series, how much sleep will Carlos Mendoza lose this winter over not yanking Severino against Harper?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I'm sure he may live to regret it, but managers don't tend to dwell on things — mistakes, especially — the way fans do.
Yeah Well Hiura Towel
12:16
I hate having this many teams in the playoffs. There's just too many teams that don't deserve to advance every year. Do we really think the Tigers should have a chance to go all the way? Last year's Rangers-Dbacks was pretty bad.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
I'm not a fan of the 12-team format either, because I think letting the sixth-best team in the league really does tend to show just how much variance there is in middle-of-the-pack teams' performances over short series. Which isn't to say that we don't get entertaining baseball in October. But just remember that this a means of determining a tournament winner, not a definitive Best Team.
Nate
12:18
Does the Tigers run cause teams to reconsider the opener strategy? Or is it just an anomaly?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
I think it's something of an anomaly. We've seen teams cut back on opener usage in the past couple of seasons and I am skeptical we'll see another proliferation, which isn't to say that we won't find examples. The Dodgers, if they have Othani and Yamamoto working on 6-man schedules, may end up doing a fair number of opener/bulk or bullpen games next year to keep those guys in line
Mike
12:20
Fun fact: due to bad weather, the 1964 Liberty Bowl football game was played indoors in the Atlantic City Boardwalk Hall. They had to play on a truncated 80 yard field, with curved banks and almost no sideline. Always wondered how “gimmicky” it must have felt, playing on an abnormal surface that would dramatically change the strategy—almost into a different game altogether.  I’m thankful to have watched a game at Yankee Stadium so I could have a relatable experience
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Wow, that football game sounds weird as hell. But as for Yankee Stadium, the fence dimensions have been around forever. It's an anomaly just like the Green Monster is in Fenway, and visiting teams aren't prevented from taking advantage of it, too
Nate
12:22
This nonsense with Machado throwing a ball toward the dugout might be the dumbest baseball discourse we've had in a while
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
Like some cultural phenomena that I see on social media, i'm just going to try avoiding finding out exactly what happened for as long as possible
Grand Admiral Braun
12:23
How is catcher runs above average/value going to affect S. Perez and his HoF chances? Clearly not anywhere near the WAR and defensive value needed making him a "no" for me, but if he gets to 300-350 homers, will voters in 2035 or whatever hit the "yes" button?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
That's a good question. Was talking about this a bit last night in the press box with associate editor Matt Martell (this series marks a first for me, btw, in having another FanGraphs colleague in the box so we can divide and conquer when it comes to postgame quote-gathering). I think Perez will have his supporters — and I certainly understand Royals fans' love for him — but if I'm the guy pounding the table to take pitch-framing seriously and give long looks not only to Buster Posey, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, and inevitably (sigh) Yadier Molina, Perez isn't the one I'm going to vote for if I want to retain some consistency
McGraw45
12:26
So many questions about Padres-Dodgers. Will MLB take the Roberts video seriously? Did Flaherty hit Tatis on purpose at an inopportune time in a playoff game? and manny, manny more.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I don't for a minute think Flaherty hit Tatis on purpose. But I do think that Profar's deke on the home run robbery — which was amusing but also borderline taunting — kind of raised tensions and made every stupid thing that happened thereafter seem quite charged, and the Dodger Stadium fans throwing balls and whatever else on the field really made for a horseshit look.
Guest
12:28
Any hope for Dodgers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
If the old Walker Buehler shows up, perhaps. But I don't like the odds on that. Even without Joe Musgrove, the Padres' rotation is so much better, and the team looks quite loose.
For the record I did pick the Padres to advance in our staff poll.
Talfred
12:29
It seems to me that the Yankees' picking up Cole's option by adding a year is not as likely as many think. Five years at $36MM per is a LOT of money for a 34 year old coming off an elbow injury. What do you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I think you're mistaken to think this is just about the rational expenditure of a billionaire's dollars. The Yankees love Cole, see him as being a tremendously valuable leader and teammate beyond just his pitching capability, which is quite good. I'm about 98% sure going to work something out.
Jim Bob Cooter
12:31
What are the chances that Lindor breaks the SS HR record? He's at 248 and the record is 353.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Discussed in our Wild Card chat https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2024-wild-card-chat/. The numbers as shortstop (i.e. not at other positions) are  241 for Lindor and 345 for Ripken, and ZiPS projects Lindor for another 131 homers, and while it can't really tell you whether he moves off the position, he's clearly a good enough SS to stick around there for awhile. So better than 50% is probably where I'd put it.
emh1969
12:34
He's obviously far away but could Andres Gimenez make the Hall as defensive first 2nd baseman (I think only Maz fits that criteria)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Highly doubtful based on what we've seen, which isn't to say there's no growth left. But he's got a career 101 OPS+ and has fallen 38 runs in the batting component of bWAR from his big season two years ago. When his defense inevitably regresses, if he's a below-average hitter he's not gonna make it to 40.

Mazeroski being in the Hall is a fluke that owes everything to his 1960 World Series-winning homer. Frank White's numbers and defensive reputation are virtually the same, and he came nowhere close.
ROY
12:36
Do you see Merrill's playoff performance having any impact on ROY voting even though it theoretically shouldn't?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
The balloting for the major awards is done BEFORE the start of the playoffs, so it won't have an impact. That's not to say that voters ignored Merrill's role in helping the Padres to the playoffs — it's a point in his favor, especially given the seamless position switch
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