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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –10/8/24
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Domenic
12:37
Are there any players who you’ve eyed as possible Hall of Famers that aren’t quite on track? Or, phrased differently, are there any guys who you’re keeping your eyes on because a big year or two could mean a ton? I’m thinking of someone like Chris Sale, or maybe even Christian Yelich - though, both are more health cases than I’m necessarily looking for.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler stand out. As far as active starters go there's a vacuum once you get past the last-legs guys (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer). Cole seems like the obvious next guy, and Sale's resurrected career probably puts him in play too. If Nola and/or Wheeler can hold up, they could elbow their way into the picture. Hopefully without hurting their elbows or shoulders.
Bob
12:39
How hot is Roberts' seat if they go out against the Padres?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Not hot. Their biggest obstacle is the dilapidated nature of their rotation given all the injuries, and that's not on his shoulders — he's not overworking those guys, he's not designing their throwing programs and rehabs and such.
Bob
12:41
Playoff schedule in the AL for this division series is terrible. The teams get a day or more off before game one, a day off after game one, a day off after game two, a day off after game four. This results in rested bullpens. That's not how baseball should work. They need to have tired pens. Which teams will benefit more from having those extra days off to rest their pen for these series? Detroit or Cleveland? KC or NY?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
Playoff baseball is a different beast than regular-season baseball because of the off days. 'Twas ever thus, even before the expanded formats, given the presence of travel days. The 162 game season favors depth, but best of 3/5/7 means less reliance upon it, not to mention the interjection of insane small-sample variance. I don't think anybody wants to see TIRED pens because that means you're going to be watching a lot of 12th and 13th pitchers doing mop-up in 10-2 games. Not great entertainment.
Seeking Solutions
12:44
So far, this is one of the most entertaining postseasons in memory, even if there are too many teams in it. So, here's my proposal - 3 games followed by 5 games followed by two 7 game series makes no sense. Either cut down the Division Series to 3 games with the bye team getting the full home field advantage, or just make it a seven game series already. Am I wrong to think this weird 5 game series is just awful?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
I don't like the best-of-threes, which have only produced 2 three-game series in three years so far. Might as well go with a winner-take-all game, those are so. much. more. fun.

Best-of-fives have been around for over 50 years by now and they're much, much better than best-of-threes.

P.S. I am not a crank.
Reds Enjoyer
12:46
Terry Francona said in his openning press conference that the subject of increasing payroll never came up when he was talking to the Reds about the manager job. Is it more likely that this is true or that they really did talk about increasing payroll and he would just never say so to the press?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
Terry hasn't lasted roughly a quarter-century as a manager by selling out his employers. I'm sure payroll was discussed, and he at least heard answers that didn't scare him away. He knows how to be diplomatic, so here we are.

I'm shocked he took another job, tbh, given his myriad health issues. Should make for an interesting team.
AFL
12:48
Any prospects you’re excited to watch in the AFL?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I generally don't have the bandwidth to watch AFL games because my attention is elsewhere — postseason stuff and then offseason stuff. I do enjoy finding out what the prospect hounds such as Eric Longenhagen think of what they saw, but that's generally long after the fact.
Seeking Solutions
12:50
Being self-reflective here, my Pirates lost one of those 5 game series, and I'm still gutted. And if not a crank, then cranky.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
Having your favorite team lose in the playoffs sucks, inevitably. I don't have the same attachment to teams now as I did when I was writing about baseball as a hobby rather than a job, but I know that sick-to-the-stomach feeling that comes with watching your team get ground down and there's nothing you can do about it. It hurts a lot, it's depressing, and then it's over, and then (IMO) the best thing left to do is to try to enjoy what's left of the baseball schedule as a fan of the game rather than of your team.
Daniel
12:53
Gambling, as a behavioral problem, is not dissimilar to drinking or other substance use issues. For some folks, it's compulsive and requires treatment-- not a moral failing. Rose is an outlier case for a number of reasons, but I wonder if thinking will evolve around player gambling so that it's not treated so differently from a player who hurts his team, say, by playing hungover.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I agree with you but that doesn't mean there aren't consequences for violating rules and laws. An alcoholic getting a DUI needs both treatment for his/her drinking problem and punishment for putting people in grave danger. A gambler who puts into question the integrity of the sport given their ability to profit from inside information or have a direct impact on winning and losing deserves to be banished.
12:58
I wish for his own sake Rose had sought treatment for his gambling addiction/compulsion. Had he done that, and demonstrated contrition, I have little doubt he would have been reinstated eventually.

I don't know if MLB was strong enough when it came to pushing Rose to get treatment. Maybe doing something like saying, "We're going to enroll you in [whatever the Betty Ford Clinic equivalent is for gamblers] and if you complete the program, MLB will foot the bill in recognition of your service to the game. After that, you're going to do a/b/c, and if you can do that for X years, we will evaluate you for reinstatement."
Jonathan W
12:59
How confident are you in the Yankees pulling of the series win? I feel like they have no choice but to dump Boone if they don't make it out of this series. Side note, is it just me or is everybody ignoring the fact that Rodon started looking iffy after he was hit by the comebacker?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
The comebacker hit off Rodon's glove, but I think you have a point. What was missing from that sequence was an effort to get Rodon to slow the game down again. I think Wells has to get out there and pay him a visit to keep him in check.
1:02
As for Boone, I'm of the opinion it's probably time to move on as well, but that doesn't mean I see it happening if they don't win this series. The Yankees value him beyond the x's and o's — the players from Judge on down really like him, believe he has their back, and inside the organization that goes a long way. But I understand fans' frustration  especially given the organization's history. Everybody wants a beheading at the first series loss.
Bob G
1:02
What's the logic for playoff off-days that aren't travel days? TV money?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Less overlap in games. Those four-game days can be a lot of fun but if you've got two games going on at once, you're not maximizing your audience.
Nate
1:04
Would you rather be in the Tigers or Guardians shoes right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Probably the Guardians given that they have legitimate starters on tap for 3 and 4, but I kind of like where the Tigers are at. They're playing as though they have nothing to lose, and they really don't, plus if they can stretch this to Game 5 they have Skubal ready.
Kellen Voss
1:06
Has a hitter as good as Kerry Carpenter ever had such extreme splits? He's arguably the Tigers' best hitter, yet he doesn't even start against lefties. I'm only 25 so I don't have a ton of context, but this feels like an anomaly.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
Offhand I don't know, but the problem with a real evaluation of the question is that 32 PA of 18 wRC+ production isn't really enough to get at a player's talent level. The career gap (148 wrC+ vs RHP, 69 vs LHP) does seem quite large, but even the 134 PA for the latter isn't a huge sample to evaluate.
Rob
1:08
Who wins the ALDS and NLDS series?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
In our staff poll I picked Houston (LOL), Yankees, Phillies, and Padres. I'd like to revise that and say I no longer think Houston is going to win.
McGraw45
1:09
How much does playoff performance factor into Hall of Fame induction?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
it varies. I think it was a massive factor for David Ortiz and as mentioned, probably Mazeroski. Probably fair to say it helped Koufax too given his short counting stats. Certainly a whole lot of pitchers from the pre-television days; if you won a couple World Series games and had a few dominant years, like Charles Bender or Lefty Gomez or Dizzy Dean, you may very well have gotten in  despite a lack of longevity
Zach
1:12
The Dodgers shouldn't throw Tatis another strike in this series unless they have to, right? Also, the narrative probably changes with Mookie if Profar doesn't rob that homer, but at what point does it stop being a small sample size and instead start being a mental issue?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
3-for-44 or whatever sounds very much like it's both a sample size and mental issue. Obviously he didn't forget how to hit, but he's being keyed on and he's pressing and it's not working out great.

And yeah, I think the Dodgers shouldn't throw Tatis many strikes but it's very tough to pull that off. He's got vulnerabilities like every other hitter; the real problem is that the Dodgers' pitchers may not be good enough to exploit them.
1:14
OK folks, that's it from here for today. Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the remainder of the Division Series!
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