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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/1/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:02

Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to today's first chat of the long, dark offseason. I'm still catching my breath from an exhausting month and working on some stuff that has yet to see the light of day, including an ESPN-Plus piece on the Defensive Players of the Year, a piece on the passing of the great Willie McCovey, and my contributions to our Top 50 Free Agents list. The Jaffe-Span household is also battling various stages of a low-grade but stubborn cold, and all of the Haribo gummies left over from Halloween can do only so much.

stever20

12:03

what % chance do you think the Nats have of retaining Harper?

Jay Jaffe

12:07

That's a very good question. it wasn't entirely clear whether Scott Boras was merely joking when he said the other day that a deal was "already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally.” https://nypost.com/2018/10/29/scott-boras-drops-improbable-bryce-harpe...

If that's true, the only team that could be with is the Nationals, who do enjoy a particularly chummy relationship with Boras such that Stephen Strasburg actually went the extension route rather than free agency. Most believe Boras had tongue in cheek when he said that. Still, I think that there's a reasonable chance, somewhere between 33% and 50%, that Bryce stays in Washington.

Guille

12:08

hi Jay! What do you say are the chances Yankees don´t sign either Machado or Harper? It´s gotta be higher than 50% considering neither is a great fit for the team.

Jay Jaffe

12:10

I'd put it around 50%. Given the re-signing of Gardner, even at fourth outfielder money, as well as the continued presence of Judge, Hicks and Stanton and the pending arrival of Clint Frazier, Harper doesn't make much sense. Machado makes more sense given Didi Gregorius's Tommy John surgery. The team loves him some Didi but he's going to miss roughly half of his final season under club control. If they really want Machado, it's not just to alleviate what might be a three-month absence.

Guille

12:10

hi Jay! IF Kershaw extends his contract with the Dodgers, is something like 5/175 in the ballpark?

Jay Jaffe

12:14

My guess is that it's going to be somewhere in the 5/$150M range, but I could be low; he's guaranteed $65 million over the next two seasons, which means the other three would average $28.3M, which might be a bit low. So yeah if it's a five-year deal, $175M could be in the ballpark, though TBH we don't know that it's specifically a 5-year deal that's being discussed. We could see a 6- or 7-year deal with a lower AAV, some kind of additional opt-outs, escalators, or other bells and whistles.

Nelson

12:14

If David Price didnt opt out of his contract does that by default mean its a bad contract for the Red Sox?

Jay Jaffe

12:19

Flags. Fly. Forever.

No, i don't think it means that he's on a bad contract. You can argue that he's overpaid relative to his recent production, sure (and there's a difference when you're looking at bWAR (4.4) vs. fWAR (2.7) in that department), but it's hardly a total loss. A top-of-the-market pitcher, as he was when he signed, is almost invariably going to be overpaid even before you factor in the injury risk. His deal didn't prevent the Red Sox from signing J.D. Martinez last winter and paying the luxury tax — if it had, I think you might view Price's deal a bit less charitably.

Kristen

12:19

Kershaw has been trending downwards the past few seasons in terms of FIP, FB velocity, SwStr%, Hard Hit%, etc. Add his contract demands and is it possible his market won't be huge after all?

Jay Jaffe

12:20

His market may not even be bigger than the team that still has exclusive rights to negotiate with him. But the extended negotiating period signals that he'd prefer to stay, and I think it's just a matter of finding the right number. The Dodgers are clearly comfortable paying a premium to keep him.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free

12:21

How quickly do you think Harper or Machado will sign? Obviously teams will wait until they sign before they go after the lower tiers right?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

Assuming Boras wasn't serious, I have no idea how quickly either will sign. Could be December (winter meetings?), could be January. After what happened last winter, I don't think as many players will be in the mood to wait and see how the top of the market develops before taking reasonable deals, and I don't think there will truly be all that many teams who are at a standstill as they wait to find out whether they're going to win the sweepstakes, so to speak.

JRuby

12:23

If you had to irresponsibly pick one name and stick to it, who's the highest profile FA the Phillies sign this offseason?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

Machado.

Asking for a friend

12:23

What are the chances that, long-term, the Mets will be mostly OK, and Mets fans will be mostly OK?

Jay Jaffe

12:26

So long as a Wilpon owns the team, I have a hard time thinking either the team or its fans will be fine. I'm not wild about the BVW hire — Bloom would have been an excellent choice in terms of finding a young, highly qualified GM, but nobody works in a vacuum, and ownership's reputation for meddling and micromanaging could thwart anyone, even somebody with as strong a reputation and personality as Sandy Alderson.

Guille

12:26

Patrick Corbin. One Hit Wonder or sustainable? I think whoever gives him over 100M is gonna be very sorry in the end

Jay Jaffe

12:30

Corbin's had good seasons before, but obviously nothing quite to the level of his 2018. I'd be a bit concerned with how he was succeeding despite a 1.4 mph drop in fastball velocity, but let's face it, if you need a frontline starter this winter, you have only so many places to put your bet, and you're better off putting it on a guy who misses a ton of bats (Corbin) than one who doesn't (Keuchel)

12:31

Non-baseball question: What are the two or three best concerts you've ever seen?

Jay Jaffe

12:34

oh jeez. LCD Soundsystem's "final show" at Madison Square Garden is in the top three even if it didn't turn out to be a finale (I might have had more fun seeing them at Brooklyn Steel this past December, but the occasion wasn't as momentous), I've had a great time at the three Springsteen shows I've seen, all post Clarence, sadly — the one that stands out the most was when he did The River in full at Barclays Center in April 2016, when Emma was pregnant; some of the stuff he said in his between-songs comments, about family and choosing who one goes through life with, was incredibly moving even beyond the songs.

And then there's the Jon Spencer Blues Explosoin and the Jesus Lizard, both of whom I've seen more than a dozen times, any one of which might have been The Single Best show I've ever seen.

buck showalter

12:34

do you think I come back to a team as a manager or as a front office type, possibly an advisory role?

Jay Jaffe

12:34

you'll find work in baseball, Buck. Maybe not in the dugout but somewhere, yeah.

Mike

12:35

Happy Offseason Jay. Bit of an off topic question for you. Have you ever been to a show to see a band but the opening act really steals the show? Years and years ago I went to a Billy Talent show but came away loving Rise Against (again, YEARS ago). Anything similar happen to you? Cheers.

Jay Jaffe

12:37

oh man, speaking of the Jon Spencer Blues Explosion, my intro to them was at just such a show. They were the opening act on a bill at Providence, RI's Club Babyhead in June 1992, right after I graduated from Brown, with Come as the headliner — both vaguely blues-linked indie bands that I was familiar with but I was more excited about the latter.

This is in a club of about 200 people, and holy f''ing, the JSBX, with their abrupt starts and stops, and their incredible grooves and their way-out histrionics and A THEREMIN absolutely blew my mind. I'd say that they blew Come off the stage but only if we were no longer doing "phrasing!"

Andy

12:38

Carlos Martinez for Cody Bellinger? Could the framework be there for a deal? Replaces Rich Hill's ancient innings and frees up playing time for Verdugo.

Jay Jaffe

12:40

I don't see the Cardinals moving Martinez, and they're kinda crowded both at 1B (Jose Martinez plus Matt Carpenter) and in the OF. I also don't think Verdugo will be anywhere near as good a player as Bellinger, whose postseason struggles skew the perception of his many talents.

Scott

12:40

When do you start writing your Hall of Fame articles?

Jay Jaffe

12:41

I'll have something next week in the wake of the Today's Game ballot reveal on Monday. BBWAA ballot is announced on Nov 19; I may have the ballot intro that week but won't start writing about candidates until after Thanksgiving.

Doug

12:42

Does Harper really get that $300+ contract everyone assumed? Seems kind of high given his inconsistent performance the last few years.

Jay Jaffe

12:44

Yes. Somebody will meet his demands, regardless of the consistency issues and the polarizing nature of his career.

Conner from AZ

12:45

Do you think Pollock gets a QO? And if he does, do you think there is any chance he accepts it in an attempt to stay healthy and productive for a full season and re-test the market next year?

Jay Jaffe

12:47

I think they should but no, I don't think he gets a QO. The Diamondbacks seem to complain about payroll — particularly the fact that Zack Grienke takes up 25% of it — and threaten to blow it all up about three times a week, so the last thing they want is a player making $17.9 million even for a year.

Wonder Bread

12:47

Will Joe Kelly get 3y/$21m this offseason? I was skeptical before the playoffs but think he may have gotten himself some pretty pennies

Jay Jaffe

12:47

I think Joe Kelly should get a 100 mph fastball to the ribs this offseason.

Frustrated Dodgers Fan

12:47

Do you see the Dodgers FO taking a different approach and spending some money on bullpen and contact hitters like LeMahieu? Or business as usual for them?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

I think they'll do more with the bullpen as a hedge against Jansen's decline, but they have a lot of arms to sort through, some of whom might be more permanent down there (Urias? Maeda?). They may get more contact oriented but I don't see LeMahieu, who's never had a *road* wRC+ higher than 101, and who was at 85 last year and 81 for his career, being a particularly appealing target.

Luke

12:51

Where do you see Marwin Gonzalez ending up?

Jay Jaffe

12:52

Now there's a guy who might make sense for the Dodgers given versatility that includes second base, though they do have Kiké and Chris Taylor still on hand and could well simplify their crowded outfield picture by steering the latter there as the regular.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

12:54

McCovey, Mays, and Aaron all came out of Alabama, separated by eight years. Has any other state produced a trio like that?

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