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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/1/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:57

Texas produced Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews and Frank Robinson within a four-year period — and that's just the first one I clicked on. California had Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams and Joe Gordon within a four-year period. I think we could do this all day with any state over similar time periods.

12:58

But yeah that's still one hell of a collection of talent for Alabama.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

12:58

Have any of the Mets represented by BVW said anything publicly about BVW's career change? I haven't seen anything about this yet.

Jay Jaffe

12:59

Neither have I

jkim

12:59

In your opinion, what should teh Dodgers be prioritizing this offseason? Harper or Machado? Trade for Realmuto? I don't see room for much improvement honestly unless they get a marquee bat or another ace, but I don't think the FA crop on the pitcher side is that good this offseason

Jay Jaffe

1:01

of those three, I'd say Harper, but again, they have a crowded OF and he's not a necessity. Machado is redundant when you have Seager under club control; might as well spend the savings elsewhere. They have the two best catching prospects in the minors in Ruiz and Smith, so probably don't need more than a short-term move there. I think their best use of an additional ~$25-30M/yr beyond retaining Kershaw might be by signing Corbin, in part because it also weakens the Diamondbacks.

Travis

1:02

Hi Jay! Which active player(s) most helped their HoF case this year? And who...didn't help their case? (Not sure how to phrase the second part in the most accurate sense, but whatever the opposite of helping their case for Cooperstown)

Jay Jaffe

1:06

among pitchers, the answer was Scherzer and Verlander from a JAWS standpoint. Among position players, Trout, who's now above the HOF average for CF, and Mauer, who crossed the 2,000 hit mark

On the filp side, I think Utley hurt his chances by retiring short of 2,000 hits, though his body of work the past couple seasons suggests he was near the end of the line. The down seasons of Jansen and Kimbrel may prove to be the beginning of their respective decline phases, though there are other plausible explanations for their rough 2018s (heavy 2017 postseason and heart issue for the former, lack of spring training brought on by newborn daughter's medical situation and pitch-tipping for the latter). But I think the biggest blow is probably to Felix Hernandez, who right now doesn't look like a viable MLB starter. I hope he can rebound.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

1:07

What does the hiring of Brodie Van Wagenen mean for the baseball career of Tim Tebow? I always got the sense that Sandy Alderson was a big backer of him, but he's not in the FO anymore.

Jay Jaffe

1:07

I can't think of a single thing I'm less concerned about in the wide world of baseball today than this. So thanks, I guess.

Biscuit

1:07

Do you think Freddy Peralta has a place in the Brewers rotation next year?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

quite possibly. I know they have a number of arms to sort through including Woodruff and Burnes, and they may think that Peralta can be another real weapon out of the bullpen. One way or another i expect him if healthy to have a significant role.

Ben

1:10

Mike Trout needs 13 fWAR to match Ken Griffey Jr., 47.6 WAR to match Mickey Mantle and 85.2 more WAR to match Willie Mays. What do you think the chances are for him to reach each of those benchmarks? Barring a major injury, he has to be a virtual lock to pass Griffey, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

This is a question better suited for Dan Szymborski and his ZiPS machine than me. Pulling numbers out of the air for the sake of filling space, I'd say 93%, 52% and 13%.

Take those to Vegas and give me 15% of your winnings when they hit, but don't come crying to me when they don't. ;-)

Shecky

1:12

You still advocating Grandal over Ramos? I know that the playoffs is a small sample and all... but sometimes people have one opinion before they see a player for more than just a random clip or two. Moreover, there is some legitimacy to Grandal having a career year in '18. There's really little question about Ramos being the better hitter... it's really only how much you allow 'injury prone' to creep into the equation IMO.

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I can tell you that our FA rankings, which are driven both by projections and industry input, have Grandal higher than Ramos — separated by 12 spots, actually — and yes, I still believe that's the right order. The gap in age and defense is still large enough to overcome Ramos' slight edge with the bat.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

1:14

People always talk about Sandy Alderson in such glowing terms, but I'm not sure he was so great as Mets GM. The Mets didn't seem to draft all that well during his tenure, traded or gave away players (Justin Turner, Colin McHugh) for practically nobody, bombed on free agent signings (especially in 2018,) and only had two winning seasons. I understand that he introduced a lot of analytic practices to baseball with the A's, but that was years ago

Jay Jaffe

1:17

I was very gung-ho about the Alderson hiring but aside from the 2015 World Series trip and what briefly appeared to be a dream rotation (of which only Syndergaard and Wheeler arrived on his watch), he fell short of the mark in New York. I don't think anybody really realized just how hamstrung he'd be by the Wilpons, or the extent to which he'd play the good soldier rather than breaking ranks when they probably should have been broken.

whitty

1:17

I always thought of Posey as a HOF lock, but when looking at his stats recently, I realized he has pretty poor counting stats and the way his career is going he's in danger of not even reaching 50 WAR. Is he as much of a lock as I used to think?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Not a lock but the MVP and the rings and the peak WAR are all there; he's done the heaviest lifting. Needs to get to 2,000 hits (he has 1,276) and possibly a position change down the line. Wrote about him here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-buster-poseys-hip-surgery-could-m...

stever20

1:19

so game 3 of the WS. Where does it rate for you in terms of all time crazy games? Meg yesterday was saying it was weirdly not specifically memorable.....

Jay Jaffe

1:22

it's one of the weirdest I ever watched, for sure, but yeah, there are a lot of innings with very little happening. The first nine innings, with Buehler's start and then Boston's comeback, were exciting, as was the 13th, when both scored, and any game that ends at 3:30 AM gets extra points for weirdness. I'd have to think long and hard about what else I'd put on that same level as far as wackiness.

Alan

1:23

What defines a good concert to you? Musicians are professionals, and almost always play well, so a good show to me is almost always proportional to to how much I like the band. That being said, though, watching Arcade Fire with their 800 members on stage definitely elevated them for me over a traditional 4 piece.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Some bands just have greater stage presence than others. Not necessarily "better" musicians in a technical sense but better as a functioning live unit, and better able to interact with and feed off of an audience. That plus not all venues are created equal — the sound can vary greatly. So can the visuals. A JSBX show I saw at Bowery Ballroom a few years ago, in which they played in front of some wild video projections, stands out as a cut above even some of their other great shows.

And some of it is just based on whatever mindset I'm bringing to the show. Maybe there's one song, and even one chord change that I have been waiting months to see them pull off and when they do it just right, with the anticipation of the crowd and the band all seeming to point towards a single moment in time, it is absolutely f'ing magical.

Sam

1:27

Is anyone going to give Machado or Harper a ten year deal? That seems insane to me, even if they are young.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

I think that even if either does get a 10-year-deal, it will have at least one opt-out in there that reflects the possibility of the signing team not being particularly competitive at some point, the market changing significantly, or the player wanting to make sure he gets another turn on the market while his earning power is still high.

Marshall

1:29

Who do you think is the greatest MLB player of all time?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

I am 99.97% certain it is either Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds or Mike Trout. You can spend all day arguing over the comparative advantages and disadvantages each had/has, and how we might measure greatness, but I'm not sure that there's any other player who deserves to be in that final four. Cobb? Not as good as Ruth. Mantle? Likewise with respect to Mays. Betts? Let's see half a dozen carbon-copy years.

Guest

1:32

Bellinger just put up two years better than CMart ever has by WAR. Plus he's still pre-arb and CMart is coming off of an injury year. Bellinger ranked 26 on Trade Value series while CMart wasn't ranked...

Jay Jaffe

1:33

good points, all.

Pete

1:33

Not even a year ago, Stanton wanted to be a Dodger and the Dodgers wanted Stanton to be a Dodger. Why can’t the Yankees work out a trade?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Because... the... Yankees... don't want Stanton to be a Dodger, maybe?

Evan

1:34

Re: Joe Kelly, was that a Dodgers fan comment regarding pegging Kelly with a fastball to the ribs? Or are you a Sox fan wondering where that Joe Kelly was all year? Kelly getting $7 million a year based on a postseason is a little scary.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

I'm convinced that Kelly acted with malicious intent when he drilled Hanley Ramirez in the 2013 NLCS, and I believe that it might have swung the outcome of the series YMMV.

Orioles Tragic

1:37

If you had your choice between Kim Ng and Ben Cherington for the GM of the Orioles, who would you hire and why? Or is there someone better suited out there?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Based upon her extensive resumé in other front offices, I remain very interested in seeing what Ng can do as a GM. I'm not sure Baltimore is an ideal situation for her, but if it were my call, and if what she said about her plan for the organization made sense — which, really, is the great unknown with all of these GM openings; we're working with very little actual info, because candidates aren't broadcasting their plans — I'd hire her.

Shecky

1:40

Hah! Once saw the Jon Spencer Blues Explosion at Irving Plaza and saw Sean Penn in the crowd. Must've been back around 2002 or so...

Jay Jaffe

1:44

Was that the one where the Frogs opened? I know I saw him there once. In related news, I hate Irving Plaza with a passion. Just a lousy experience every time as far as the security and the bar and the atmosphere relative to Bowery or Webster (when it was doing similarly sized shows).

Trent

1:44

Baseball Prospectus has Brian Mccann as basically a Hall of Famer, at 60+ WAR. Will he be the first Hall of Fame "Framer"?

Jay Jaffe

1:45

I think Molina will be, and that McCann won't make it because of his offensive decline.

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