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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/10/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my weekly chat since the end of the regular season! While the queue fills, I've got a bit of housekeeping....
Here's today's dispatch, on the status of the universal DH and how a number of aging hitters are caught in limbo http://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-status-of-the-universal-...
2:02
Here's yesterday's piece on the Indians' plans to trade Francisco Lindor and how they're complicated by the presence of so many other alternatives on this year's market and next http://blogs.fangraphs.com/francisco-lindor-and-the-crowd-of-available...
2:03
And, since he's giving his re-introductory press conference right now, here's last Friday's piece on the Red Sox's rehiring of Alex Cora http://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-inevitable-return-of-alex-cora-to-bosto...
OK. As we tell our 4-year-old daughter, the question store is open....
Marko from Tropoja
2:03
If you had to put money on it, please rank Bellinger, Buehler and Seager in terms of HOF likelihood.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
I'd go with Bellinger, Seager, Buehler in that order. Bellinger has 18.7 bWAR through his age-24 season, not to mention an MVP award and a Gold Glove, while Seager has 17.6 WAR through age 26, and neither his Rookie of the Year award nor his postseason honors — deserved as they were — tend to move the needle in the same way.
2:07
Buehler has just 5.7 bWAR, though he's filled out the Won Some Big Games column (a topic I actually want to look at this winter in my HOF stuff, as it helps to understand the pre-war guys better)
Matt
2:07
Hi JaY!, Can we at least quiet the rumor that Lindor is a target of the Dodgers. It just doesn't make that much sense to me. I know Lindor is much better defensively than Seager, but Seager just won the NLCS and WS MVP awards after a monster season, in addition to reportedly being uninterested in moving to 3B. Also, it seems like the Dodgers would want to resign Turner and with the DH not for sure in the NL for 2021, seems a bit premature. Can't imagine asking Lindor to play second?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
I addressed this in my piece, but yes, I think this is a longshot given Seager's strong season and the fact that the Dodgers just aren't in the business of giving talent away. There's a presumption that the Dodgers will retain Turner, and i don't think what happened after the World Series is going to change that, though 3B might be Seager's longer-term destination .
Mike Ortman
2:09
NL MVP?  Who do you think will win the award?  And if it's Freeman, how much of a boost does that give his HOF candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
I think it's either Freeman or Betts, and while I'd favor Betts, Fab Freddie did have a fantastic season with the bat. Winning the award would certainly help Freeman's case, which I think is going to rest more on traditional numbers and achievements than the advanced stats, so racking up the hardware,  including rings as well as trophies, is probably important. I wrote about his nascent HOF case here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/freddie-freeman-fastballs-and-the-hall-of-...
shach1
2:12
Does Michael Conforto get to another level next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Given that he just set a career high with a 157 wRC+ and was on pace to produce about 5.4 WAR, which would also be a career high, I think the more relevant question is whether this is what the Mets can expect going forward. Color me skeptical, because both his .322 batting average and .515 slugging percentage were well beyond his xStats based on batted balls (.285 xAVG/.475 xSLG), but at least the good news from a value perspective is that the Mets kept him out of center field (where he had -4 DRS and -1.9 UZR in 268.1 innings in 2019 to go with his previous red ink) and will presumably do so in the future as well.
Guest
2:17
How much longer can the Tony La Russa fiasco go on? Any chance he resigns and the White Sox get a mulligan?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
LOL no. Given the report of La Russa's second DUI, I hate the move even more now than I did at the time, but commissioner Rob Manfred won't say boo publicly because Reinsdorf is a powerful owner who not only opposed his hiring in the first place but can probably muster up enough opposition to make the commissioner's job difficult if not endanger it.
Curtis
2:19
With the new Mets direction, is the NL East the toughest division?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
It might be, but while it's fair to expect the Mets to add some good players with those Cohenbucks, I think we'll have to see what happens this winter. The Braves need to retain or replace Ozuna, and to fortify their rotation, and the Nationals are coming off a dreadful year and have several holes.
Mets Fan
2:22
Who says no: Nimmo and Rosario for Jo Addel
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
The Angels. Easy call.
2:24
Nimmo's a nice player but nobody's giving up six years of control for Jo Freakin' Adell — no matter how bad his rookie season was — for two years of Nimmo and three of Rosario, who hasn't shown that he can consistently hit well enough to merit a lineup spot.
Matt (Oceanside)
2:24
I know Charlie Morton has seemingly been interested in only staying on the east coast, but do you think he would be a legit, cost-effective target for the Dodgers on a one year deal, say for 12-13 million. I know he had a down year era-wise, but his FIP was solid. Also, do you think Dodger players would have a problem with him since he was on that 2017 Astros team? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
I think he'll help any team at that price and his phone is probably ringing off the hook, so he'll be able to define where he wants to be in terms of general geography. I would imagine that if he joined the Dodgers there would be some awkward conversations but as he wasn't directly involved as one of the hitters getting signals, it wouldn't amount to much, particularly given that he's expressed his regrets about not speaking up.
Maddoning
2:26
At roughly $7-$8 mil in his final arb year, is Kyle Schwarber a non-tender candidate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
I doubt it. The guy projects as a 2+ win player and the Cubs can certainly get something for him in trade if they didn't think he could help them in 2021.
Isolated Thinker
2:28
I'm sure you have discussed this in the past but will Kevin Brown eventually make the HOF one day?  He had a semi dominant 5 year stretch with a couple of other great seasons mixed in.  If not, what exactly keeps him out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
His biggest obstacle is the fact that he was in the Mitchell Report, but additionally, he never won a Cy Young, didn't age well due to his back woes, had a frosty relationship with the media, and was Five Percented off the ballot on his first try. That's a lot to overcome, particularly if you don't have a champion among the BBWAA elders who can help to get you onto an Era Committee ballot, and I don't think he does.
Trout for President
2:32
Is Mike Trout no longer the best player in baseball?  Do you buy that he's now a bad CF, or is that just small sample noise?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
The heavyweight championship belt still belongs to Trout, and while I'm somewhat concerned about his defense, I read a piece about how the work of Old Friend Mike Petriello — about the quality of Trout's jumps — caught the man's attention as something he needed to work on. That was in late August https://theathletic.com/2020722/2020/08/24/how-social-media-helped-mik.... I know he'll put in the work to improve, so let's see what a full season looks like once he has.
Mike Ortman
2:35
DH in the National League? How is it that it's at risk of going away again?  Just a bargaining chip for the owners?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
The adoption of the universal DH was part of the 2020-only pandemic package, and while there's plenty of sentiment in the game towards making it a permanent rule change — which is on track to happen with the next CBA, so long as the two sides don't keep trying to jam forks into each other's eyeballs every time they sit down together — they still have to resolve the rules for 2021. The owners would like to use it as a bargaining chip to get expanded playoffs, but that's probably an overreach unless they make those playoffs worth the players' while ($$$). So the matter will remain unsettled until the two sides can find a more equitable swap.
Guest
2:38
How about these 3Bs for the Hall: Donaldson, Rendon, Arenado, Chapman?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
The pandemic was really costly to Donaldson, whose shot at reaching 2,000 hits is almost nonexistent (he's about to turn 35 and has just 1,066). Arenado is in great shape. Chapman's off to a great start with a pair of 8.3-WAR seasons. Rendon, if he ages well, could have a shot given that he's got 3 6-win seasons under his belt.
Derek
2:42
"Do you see my ring?... I'm a Hall of Famer baseball person." is a pretty great line
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
He's a Hall of Fame manager. As a person... the reports are less glowing.
Inaccessible Rail
2:42
If we're so high on the DH now, why not go full NFL and have completely separate offensive and defensive teams?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
Because literally nobody thinks that should happen.
Saratogian
2:43
Do you anticipate the Blue Jays back in Buffalo?  The border is still closed and COVID is no less a threat, so I have to wonder. If yes, shouldn’t they proudly wear their home city “Buffalo” on their jerseys?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
It's really tough to know. Given the way things are going in the US as far as the pandemic, I have a hard time imagining the border opening soon, but once there's regime change — and yes, there will be, the orange psychopath's latest noises to the contrary — and eventually a vaccine, it might be possible. But I'd think the Jays are preparing to remain in Buffalo.
whether that's recognized on the uniform... eh, I don't really care either way.
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