JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/10/20

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Guest

2:46

If a sportswriter can figure out something that Trout needs to work on...uh, doesn't that say something about the quality of the Angels' coaching staff? Shouldn't they be the ones to identify such issues?

Jay Jaffe

2:48

well, it's not just any sportswriter, it's somebody who works at MLB and has access to and understanding of data at a level that few others in this field have. But you're right, it doesn't speak particularly well of the Angels, though whether that's a coaching thing or a front office thing is unknowable from here. They're in the process of hiring a new GM, though, so let's see if communication levels improve.

Marshall

2:49

How likely do you think it is that Kershaw improves on his "peak" component of JAWS over the remainder of his career (i.e., puts up a top-7 season for him)?

Jay Jaffe

2:50

It's a tall order but not impossible. Kershaw's 7th best season for JAWS purposes is 2010 with 5.2 WAR (5.6 pitching, -0.4 hitting), but he hasn't topped 5.0 since 2017, and he's not going to get the kind of innings that he used to.

GrandyIsASadist

2:50

Would you trade Keibert Ruiz?

Jay Jaffe

2:52

in the right package, sure. I think it's clear that the Dodgers have a pretty good young catcher in Will Smith, and if Ruiz is good enough to start as well, it makes sense to find a place for him to do it while filling another area of need. But it better be for something besides a one-year rental.

GrandyIsASadist

2:52

Is Gonsolin a starter or reliever long-term?

Jay Jaffe

2:53

Based on what we've seen, he's got starter-level stuff. If the Dodgers can leave him be and let him take the ball every five days it should become quite clear.

Yanks fan

2:53

what do you see as the Yankees top priorities this offseason? I fear claims of austerity will stop them from making any meaningful improvements.

Jay Jaffe

2:56

Two big issues stand out: 1) they have to figure out how to round out their rotation beyond Cole, Garcia, Severino (hopefully), and Montgomery; they probably need at least one mid-rotation starter there and some depth beyond The Kids. 2) They also have to figure out their middle infield; is Gleyber Torres a shortstop, and if so, go out and re-sign DJ LeMahieu, or is he a second baseman, in which case, go get a shortstop, and perhaps make that shortstop Lindor and plan on rolling the Brinks truck to his door.

Beyond that is the bullpen and the catching but I think those are comparatively minor. They need 1-2 more reliable arms for the middle to late innings, and they need to figure out what's going on with Gary Sanchez.

Isolated Thinker

2:57

Will we ever see a day where MLB considers pushing back outfield fences league-wide?

Jay Jaffe

2:58

that seems inordinately expensive, incurring construction costs AND seating reductions so no, I don't think we'll see it. It would be far more cost effective to simply raise the height of the fences if you wanted to curb home runs and increase the number of balls in play.

Jesse

2:58

Are you anticipating Wander Franco to be on the Opening Day roster (not necessarily the lineup), given that he's not played past A+ ball during the 2019 MiLB season?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

I'd be very, very surprised if he starts the season on the big league roster, particularly as this is the Rays we're talking about, where no service clock goes ungamed, and where they already have a pretty solid shortstop in Willy Adames. They'll want to see what Franco looks like in competitive minor league games for the reason you suggest.

GiantC

3:00

Who will play SS for Oakland next year?

Jay Jaffe

3:01

When I was working on that shortstop piece, it occurred to me that Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien might swap places, because Simmons' price tag is probably depressed by his injuries (he's played 133 games over the past two seasons), and that's the kind of risk the A's might be willing to tolerate.

3:02

the fact that NOBODY claimed Brad Hand seems pretty indicative of collusion or am I just conspiracizing

Jay Jaffe

3:04

I don't think it's collusion to the point of being provable in the courts. 30 teams are coming off a season in which they received far less revenue than they ever dreamed they would. They all need relief pitching, but they need to figure out their operating budgets for 2021 first, and committing to a $10 million reliever is rarely the first step in that, when the option is to find another guy who can do the same thing or to wrap him up under more club-friendly terms.

Tom

3:04

How do you see deGrom's odds for Cy Young? Will writers recognize the degree of difficulty in his division, versus guys who faced the Central? How much would a 3rd Cy improve his HOF case?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

I suspect Bauer's going to win and that the degree of difficulty in terms of competition is something that most voters won't pay much mind to. If deGrom were to win, it would set him up as a Koufax-level exception for the Hall of Fame — somebody with 3 Cy Youngs whose numbers aren't otherwise comparable to anybody else you'd consider Hallworthy.

Which isn't to say that he won't get there on his other merits, but that his late start makes it harder to focus on where he stands.

Jonathan

3:08

Lindor hits the ball hard and doesn't strike out. Good combo for a rebound, right?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

Yes and his defensive value gives him a strong floor as well. The guy can play, and he'll be fine

Bob

3:09

The Steve Cohen introductory news conference was pretty stellar. That is all.

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I didn't watch/listen to it but based on what seeped into my timeline I think he sounded all the right notes and drew a very clear contrast between himself and the Wilpons. He wants to win and to please fans and is willing to hire smart people and spend money towards that end, without being too concerned about the annual bottom line. That's a wish list for any team's owner

3:12

Thoughts on Austin Meadows pal?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

what about him? He had a dreadful year due to COVID and multiple injuries but it was just 52 games (including postseason). He's going on 26 and not even arbitration eligible. I expect him to bounce back.

Daniel

3:15

Jay... if you're Sandy... Springer in CF with Nimmo moving to LF, or Realmuto with a lesser CF addition? And thoughts on the Mets chasing Arenado?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

Both are reasonable paths to pursue, and both positions need attention but good catching is more scarce. As for Arenado, I don't think any team can trade for him without some kind of resolution of his opt out after the 2021 season, though I think he's smart enough to recognize which way the wind is blowing as far as deals of that size in the current environment.

Jesse

3:18

Do you think that Will Smith's poor catching metrics (largely statcast's framing metrics and baseball prospectus's CDA) correctly portray Will Smith as one of the worst defenders at the position, or is he being somewhat misrepresented?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

he caught more innings in 2019 than 2020 and his numbers were above-average then, so I'm not terribly worried, particularly given his age.

3:20

Can Springer get back to his 2019 level in 2021? Thank you

Jay Jaffe

3:22

He had a 146 wRC+ this year compared to 156 last year, with a career mark of 141. His raw slash numbers were down but his xStats were virtually unchanged. I'm not terribly concerned.

Ezra

3:22

What do you think of Lindor to the cards?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

They have Paul DeJong and they couldn't find enough nickels to justify keeping Kolten Wong, so no, he's not going to wind up there for 2020, and he's not signing there as a free agent.

Mike Ortman

3:23

How about one frivolous question just to be silly. What are your top five Yo La Tengo songs? Let's Save Tony Orlando's House for me.

Jay Jaffe

3:24

Hah, you caught me at a time when I am spinning a bunch of mid-90s Yo La Tengo EPs that I ripped from CD, from the Painful/Electro-Pura era.

3:26

Five favorites: False Alarm, Sudden Organ, Shaker (obscure EP cut), Deeper into Movies, and Black Flowers

3:27

And five more: Drug Test, The Story of Jazz, Blue Line Swinger, From a Motel 6, and Barnaby Hardly Working.

Asinwreck

3:27

Given that you have created JAWS, should we refer to you as a a Hall of Famer baseball person?

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