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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/11/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first offseason edition of my weekly chat.
12:02
I've reached the midway point in my evaluation of the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, which was released a week ago. Festivus has come early, for today I took another look at Gary Sheffield, his never-ending list of grievances, and his prodigious offensive production https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c...
12:03
Yesterday, it was Carlos Delgado, who went one-and-done on the 2015 ballot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c...
before them it was Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy, whose profiles you can reach via the navbar above either of those linked articles.
Tomorrow's subject is Jeff Kent, which leaves Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Fernando Valenzuela to round out the ballot.
12:05
Before I sunk my teeth into the Era Committee stuff, I had a piece last week positioning the Dodgers dynasty within the context of other dynasties from the post-1960 expansion era https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-dynasty-takes-its-place-among-...
12:06
anyway, on with the show...
sodo mojo
12:06
I asked this at the beginning of the season and your answer was the player didn't have enough of a bat which made sense at the time, but I want to ask it again in light of new evidence.  Do you think Cal Raleigh has a path to the Hall where he spends the next 3 years at catcher and slowly transitions to a full time DH for the following 4 years? if he can average 4 war over the next seven years it would give him 49 total is that enough given he was a catcher for the majority of his career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
I think there's a legitimate path to Cooperstown for Raleigh, but I think it's going to depend upon retaining some share of the catcher duties for as long as possible.
12:09
I don't think three years of full-time duty is going to cut it
12:10
it was hard enough to convince some people that Joe Mauer belonged given his mid-career transition to first base, and we're going to be looking at Buster Posey's shortish career soon too
wrote a bit about Raleigh in this year's HOF progress report here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep...
obv, winning the AL MVP would be a big boost as well.
Jacob
12:11
What is the real purpose of GM Meetings? How many teams do actually have a solidified person who fills the role nowadays? Should they rename it as "Executive Meetings? "
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
in light of all the presidents of baseball operation and the title inflation in general, yes, it would make more sense to call them the executive meetings. as for their purpose, they function as an opportunity for networking to lay groundwork for trades as well as addressing some leaguewide matters  — dates, rule changes, policies, other stuff
12:13
stand by — lunch has arrived (banh mi today)
12:14
had to go with the backup banh mi place today. a bit bready and more expensive but not bad.
Jacob
12:16
Zach Littell or Zach Eflin? Which would you prefer to sign and reunite with the Rays?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I'd lean Eflin but only if the medicals check out and if it's an incentive-based deal after he missed about half the season due to lower back woes
BallFourFan
12:17
Would Gary Sanchez be a good fit for a reunion with the Yankees as a backup right handed hitting catcher?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
Eh, i don't see a need. Between Austin Wells, JC Escarra and occasional work from Ben Rice (who will likely be the regular 1B), they're well-stocked, and somebody in that front office didn't like Sanchez much judging by all the pissing and moaning about his defense that filtered into the beat coverage of him during his first go-round.
Dan S.
12:20
Seems like Sonny Gray has no surplus value and St. Louis would have to eat around $10M to find a taker/more to get anything of value back. Does that sound right to you? What about Willson Contreras? Does he have a bit of surplus value at 2/36.5 + an option? The buyout on that option is a substantial $5M.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I don't see STL having to eat nearly that much if they want to deal Gray, who has a $35 million salary for next year and a $30 million option for 2027 with a $5 million buyout that's deferred. That will probably limit his market, which the pitcher has some control over anyway due to his no-trade clause
12:26
Contreras might be a bit undervalued, but not as much as he would be if he were still a catcher
Zach
12:26
How can the Dodgers actually get younger on offense? Realistically, they’ve only got one lineup spot open (one of the outfield positions), so their flexibility seems pretty limited.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
They have an opening in an outfield corner (probably RF with Teoscar moving to left) and flexibility at second base as well, where they could do something involving Hyeseong Kim and/or Alex Freeland, with Tommy Edman picking up starts at multiple positions
12:30
Trading Teoscar would open up more avenues for getting younger, and after his defensive struggles it wouldn't surprise me a ton if they went that way, even while eating a chunk of change
wrights_back
12:32
The Alonso permutations are head spinning!  Given the crowd sourced contract details, what direction do you think Stearns goes?   Yes, Pete is great a scooping balls in the dirt, but watching Vlad pay 1B in the WS was an eye opener for this Met fan (and not in a positive way).   $150Mn for a one dimensional DH is a surefire way to clog up the multi dimensional DH waiting in the wings (Soto).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
Alonso is a very bad first baseman whose defensive deficits led to multiple pitcher injuries including that of Kodai Senga, which may have turned the Mets' season. I think a higher-AAV/shorter-term deal makes sense for them if they're going to retain Alonso, since, as you note, Juan Soto is DH-bound at some point. If he's set on more than 4 years, it might be time to move in a different direction, even if he is a fan favorite. When you win just 83 games, getting too attached to your ~3-win veterans is a ticket to oblivion
Jacob
12:36
Murakami reportedly has problems with 93+ mph fastballs and breaking pitches...isn't that 90% of MLB level pitchers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Yeah, that's a real problem, and Eric Longehagen expressed some concerns in his scouting report a couple weeks back https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-scout-the-players-coming-over-from-as.... It sounds like Murakami may need some mechanical tweaks to improve his contact rate, so it's going to take a team that's confident in its ability to rework his swing — and of course, the buy-in of Murakami himself — to get the kind of blockbuster deal some envision.
Quickie
12:39
Is there a difference between tendered and extended?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
tendered = a player under club control offered a contract for the next season. extended = a player under contract who adds additional years to the contract.
Alby
12:40
What was Clase thinking? The sums involved seem trivial to someone making millions.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
I think it's very possible that what has been uncovered is merely the tip of an iceberg — enough to prosecute and to end his career, but not every single instance of wrongdoing. Even if it was, he made a very stupid decision that's going to wind up costing him orders of magnitude more money.
Bardo Bill
12:45
Dwight Evans: 65 WAR, 2400+ hits, 129 wRC+. He'd be a first ballot HOFer if he became eligible now for the BBWAA ballot, right? How does he get overlooked by the Contemporary Era committee for the likes of Mattingly, Delgado, and Dale Murphy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
Dunno about first-ballot but I do believe he'd be a guy who gets to Cooperstown by the end of his run, not unlike a Helton or Rolen (but not quite as strong in JAWS due to a lower peak).

I really don't have any *good* explanation why Evans has been left off the last two ballots except that it appears the Hall and Historical Overview Committee don't want to let go of the idea that Mattingly and Murphy can get in via a stacked committee à la Parker, which isn't a good look. I do think that the recent rule change that makes candidates ineligible to return on the next ballot unless they receive at least 5 out of 16 votes will help get him on the next ballot but he deserved a crack at this one. And everything I've said here applies to Lou Whitaker as well, but with more WAR/JAWS.
Sam
12:50
Am I right to be worried that the Red Sox are not going to have effective ways to spend money in free agency?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Even given their recent reputation, I'm going to hold off prejudging their offseason. They do have a couple of obvious ways to spend money: retain Alex Bregman, add some production at the DH/1B end of the spectrum, and go after some quality starting pitching. I think it will be fair to measure what they do relative to that outline.
Jacob
12:53
Do you feel that Bonds will be elected by this committee and how long can you be on this ballot?
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