JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 11/11/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 11/11/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:55

I think it's unlikely because the Hall controls who gets on the committees, and last time it chose three very players who were vociferously anti-PED in their day in Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg, and Jack Morris. Based on a rule change from earlier this year, if Bonds (or any other candidate) gets 5 or fewer votes, he can't be on the 2029 ballot, and if that happens a second time, he'd be permanently ineligible.

here's the piece I wrote about the rule change https://blogs.fangraphs.com/never-is-a-long-long-time-permanent-inelig...

12:57

Any QOs you were surprised by? Which players are likely to accept them?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

The one that surprised me is Woodruff, whom I think would be the best served to accept given that he's made 23 starts over 3 seasons due to arm injuries and rehab. I think Gallen would be well-served to accept as well after such a mediocre season.

Avery

12:58

How much of a boost do you think players like Salvador Perez, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey will get in hall of fame voting for being faces of their respective franchises while not being huge outliers statistically among catchers? This being as opposed to Russell Martin and Brian McCann who didn't stick with one team, whose candidacies didn't receive much fanfare, and then who fell unceremoniously fell off the ballot. And my real question: could this end up helping Will Smith in future? I'm probably overreacting his 2025, but he certainly could end up putting numbers and/or longevity similar to the three guys I mentioned at the top.

Jay Jaffe

1:01

they'll get a bit of a boost but I don't imagine it will be a difference-maker in itself. I don't see Smith in the same situation because for as good as he is, so long as he's a Dodger, he's always going to take a back seat to Shohei, Mookie, Freddie and others. I also don't think he'll be at catcher for the entirety of his career; his framing has fallen off considerably and the Dodgers already have a young heir apparent in Rushing; it wouldn't surprise me if Smith is manning an outfield corner sometime in the next several years.

Guest

1:01

Ke’Bryan Hayes’ defence makes him a top-25 3b-man, while Patrick Bailey’s makes him a top-10 catcher. Does the way framing is computed overstate overall value, in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

no. except at the extremes, a run saved on defense is as valuable as a run produced on offense.

Scarecrow

1:03

Boston wants a top starter. As an org., they seem to favor velocity. Would you consider Cease to be a priority target over groundballers (and slow pitchers - both 10th percentile or lower in velo) Valdez and Suarez?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

I think Fenway Park places a bit more of a premium on guys who can generate groundballs, so a guy like Cease with his 36.6% rate isn't a good fit. I think Framber Valdez is a much better fit for that reason — and he's only 10th percentile in average exit velocity, not fastball velocity (his sinker averaged 94.2 mph, 47th percentile)

Kevin

1:07

People often rail against who they think as the “worst owner in baseball,” whoever that is to them. Which owner(s) do you consider to be the best owner(s) in baseball?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

leaving aside how they make their money (barf barf barf) it's tough to argue against the Dodgers given their spending and success. I much prefer owners who spend aggressively so I'd put the Mets' Cohen, the Phillies' Middleton, and the Padres' Seidler in the upper tier though the latter is provisional given last year's messy transfer of power to brother John after Peter's death. Moving down the payroll ladder, I think you'd have to consider the Brewers' Attanasio to be one of the best given the success of the team on his watch.

The person who asks the lunch question

1:12

What's for lunch?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

I had a classic banh mi (ground pork, ham, and pate) and an order of summer rolls (shrimp and rice vermicelli).

David

1:13

Di you think it’s accurate to describe Ohtani as the greatest of all time? Old Hoss pitched more innings in one season than Ohtani has pitched in his career - and sometimes played shortstop when he wasn’t pitching. Of course baseball was a different game then. But how can we describe a contemporary player as the GOAT when past players are basically eliminated from the conversation because today’s version of baseball is harder?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

I don't think it's unreasonable since we've never seen a player combine this level of offense with regular pitching duty against such high-caliber competition for as long as Ohtani. it's fair to quibble with the volume of the pitching given his injuries, but Old Hoss ain't the yardstick, and Hoss couldn't hit for a warm bucket of spit (73 OPS+ for his career). Ruth didn't have a crossover pitching-hitting career for long and was doing what he did against a much smaller and segregated player pool. Negro League two-way stars such as Rogan face quality-of-competition issues in such a comparison as well.

not the lunch guy

1:19

Thoughts on the Cubs? Even assuming they get Imanaga back (either on the QO or a new deal), they're pretty much running back a roster that didn't look talented enough for the playoffs minus their most talented player. What do you think they need to do here?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

They need frontline pitching and they're going to have a Kyle Tucker-sized hole in their lineup. A reunion with Kyle Schwarber and possibly trading Suzuki might help solve the offensive issue without compromising what was one of the best defenses, so it really comes down to fortifying the pitching staff — which is going to take money.

Jazzrunner

1:22

Buster Posey and Thurman Munson have quite similar WARs and their careers were cut short perhaps 3 or 4 years early, Munson because of the plane crash and Posey because he was burnt out. They could have accumulated more stats as DHs in those years. Is Posey a shoe in?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

I don't think Posey is shoo-in on the first ballot but he's going to get elected to the Hall of Fame sooner rather than later. And I've made the Munson/Posey comp a million times but the Historical Overview Committee hasn't listened to me.

Vince

1:23

How do you feel about Bill Freehan? 5x GG, 11x AS, WS win, entire career with DET. Seems to me like he's one that slipped through the cracks.

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I think he'd be a reasonable choice for the Hall but the deck is stacked against him via the current Era Committee process. Wrote a lengthy tribute when he passed away in late 2021 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-bill-freehan-the-thinking-mans...

1:28

Just had another experience of a very weird sensation. obviously I've been writing for a long time – over 7 1/2 years at FanGraphs, 13 1/2 since i joined Sports Illustrated, and 24 since i started blogging at Futility Infielder. Sometimes I can envision where I was when I wrote a certain piece — which home office, basically, since I can see myself pulling books off the shelf to check various resources — and when the years blur together it gets confusing. through that latest bit of whatever sensation it is (not deja vu), I thought I might have written the Freehan piece as recently as 2 years ago but it turns out it was already 4 years ago! Wild.

Jacob

1:28

There was a documentary about "Who killed the Montreal Expos" and it lined up multitude of suspects, but during the entire documentary, there was no mention of Omar Minaya? Didn't he make any questionable decisions? Whom do you feel killed the organization?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

I haven't watched it yet — I should — and yes, he did make some questionable decisions, such as trading Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, AND Grady Sizemore (plus Lee Stevens) for pending free agent Bartolo Colon.

More than anything else, I blame Jeffrey Loria and Bud Selig for killing the Expos.

WinTwins0410

1:31

Jay, have you ever written much about Dave Righetti? I thought of him the other day and reviewed his career and while he doesn't seem Hall-worthy at first blush, fourth things stood out to me and I don't refer to the Fourth of July no-hitter (!): 1) Wow, his career and in particular his time with the Yanks really parallels that of Donnie Baseball; 2) He wasn't a manager but was pitching coach for those WS-winning Giants clubs; 3) Christina Kahrl in 2011 referenced (https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/14104/stars-of-the-forgo...) Dave's relief-pitching WAR as comparable to that of Lee (who had far more saves) and Quiz (who didn't); and 4) FanGraphs' Jesse Wolfersberger back in 2011 wrote a neat piece contending that Righetti could coach his pitchers to a better HR/FB rate (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dave-righetti-lord-of-the-hrfb-rate/). It's not that I think Dave is a Hall of Famer in and of itself, but wow -- he had a more interesting pitching and coaching career than I realized. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

He was a very good pitcher with a very interesting career, and you're right, I've never written much about him. There's a rainy day project idea.

Ken

1:32

Keith Hernandez v. Don Mattingly?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I think Hernandez might be Hallworthy, and I absolutely 100% do not think Mattingly is.

Ken

1:33

I saw a MLB network piece where Brian Kenny advocated strongly for Mattingly being a HOFer. Is the fix in?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

BK's obsession with law and order comes shining through again, but he's got no bearing on the election process. This is the Hall's ball, they control who gets on the committee.

Insert Witty Name Here

1:35

Which is worse: the steroid era or the legalized gambling era? There’s no way that legalized gambling is going away, unless government intervention right? If Clase, a top tier closer who de-legitimized the game, every pitch now is now under suspicion and it’s never going to go away.

Jay Jaffe

1:38

I think the legalized gambling era has the potential to be worse — and I'd put a complete ban on pitch-by-pitch betting — but I'm going to need to see far more proof before I believe that every pitch is under suspicion. Good grief, I think we've got enough darkness in our lives under this nightmare of a presidential regime to start concocting theories about a conspiracy controlling our pastimes as well.

Ken

1:39

Does the Clase/Ortiz prop bets scandal make MLB/Manfred reconsider moving a franchise in Vegas?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

hahahahahahhahahahhahahah

no.

Nico's Corner

1:39

Tucker to the Orioles. Impact bat, makes fans happy, lengthens lineup. Would they have to go over market to make it happen?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

Tucker would be a great fit for the Orioles, but regardless of what Rubenstein has said so far, nothing I've seen yet from the Orioles during his tenure — or more to the point, Mike Elias' tenure — suggests he's going to spend Tucker-level money on a free agent.

1:44

prove me wrong, I'll tip my cap. But until I see him write that check, he gets no benefit of the doubt (and the same would be true for any other blustering owner, especially one that starts banging the drum for a salary cap).

Alleghany River

1:45

Was moving O'Neill Cruz to CF a net positive?

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