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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/18/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! And Happy Hall of Fame Ballot Season. Yesterday the BBWAA released the 2026 writers ballot, which I took my first look at here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-questions-about-the-2026-bbwaa-hal...
12:02
It's a weak first-year slate that doesn't have anybody who will get in this year, and I see only one candidate — Cole Hamels — with any long-term potential
Meanwhile, Carlos Beltrán needs to gain less than 5% to gain entry. My pofile of him should be going up shortly.
12:04
Meanwhile, I've profiled six of the eight candidates on the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, including Fernando Valenzuela on Friday. Long story short, I think the voters should be looking at him as a pioneer rather than focusing on the good-not-great statistics  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c...
12:05
For our weekly subscriber mailbag, I wrote an article-length answer regarding Committee voters potentially treating other candidates as pioneers as well. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-november-15-2025/
12:06
with that ample preamble out of the way, on with the show.
Nancy's Friend Sluggo
12:06
500 home runs seems a fanciful goal for Pete Alonso given the decline phase players go through in their 30s, but is that a magic number for the Hall of Fame if the player hasn't been caught using PEDS or experiencing some equivalent extenuating circumstance? Would a player with that total definitely get in? Thanks, Jay
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
(sorry, lunch arrived 20 minutes ahead of schedule as I began typing this)
12:10
I don't know if 500 home runs will be viewed as a definite in for a player who wasn't viewed as an MVP contender at some point but I suspect it would be enough if he had a clean reputation
Sirras
12:11
What player that is currently on the ballot but unlikely to be voted into the Hall of Fame did you especially enjoy watching?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
Matt Kemp was certainly a lot of fun when he was an MVP contender chasing a 40-40 season. Edwin Encarnación's homers tended to be impressive ones. And I'll always have a soft spot for David Wright and wish his body hadn't betrayed him
12:14
Sushi: not the easiest meal to eat at my desk while chatting. Sorry folks
Garrett
12:14
Thoughts on a potential Triston Casas change of scenery trade to Washington? Wonder if there's a deal to be made with Paul Toboni in charge and the Nats receiving calls on MacKenzie Gore.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I think if the Nationals are going to trade Gore, they should target a position of greater defensive importance and somebody who isn't surrounded by question marks after injuries
not the lunch guy
12:17
Obviously there are a lot of interesting things about HoF season other than just "who gets in this year", but from that perspective, does this feel like a particularly boring one? It feels like we have one highly likely case and nobody else anywhere close
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
It's not the MOST exciting cycle but here are a few things:

  • *Andruw Jones is less than 9 points away from 75%, and would have the largest gain from a ballot debut of any Hall of Famer
  • Chase Utley stands a good chance of crossing the 50% threshold, a strong indicator of future election
  • Utley's coattails could help candidates such as Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia. I'm not particularly keen on either but I see the arguments in their favor.  
  • Cole Hamels is a harbinger of starting pitchers to come and is better than a lot of people remember
  • What happens with Félix Hernández after a stronger-than-expected debut?
Tom M
12:22
Jeff Passan said Pirates were runner up for Josh Naylor at ~$80M, and are in on Schwarber.  What is you take on this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
They're going to keep Davy Andrews busy with his We Tried Tracker
Mr. Jones And Me
12:24
Andrew Jones could get in this year...or he could remain somewhat stalled out...any sense of momentum on Jones's part? If he doesn't make it in via the Writer's Ballot, I imagine a Vet Committee staffed with Chipper, McGriff, Bobby Cox, Glavine, etc. would be more than happy to get him in (fair or otherwise), but still, curious to me that he's harder for voters to wrap their heads around than the Wagners and Heltons of the world.
(Beyond the low average, fall-off post age 30, domestic violence, etc. - ALL OF THAT ASIDE)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I think the big thing is that his high JAWS standing is driven by being the career leader in fielding runs (+235, to go with 10 Gold Gloves). People are inherently suspicious of the accuracy of defensive metrics and Gold Gloves and I can't say I blame them. His momentum has slowed; he's only gained 8 points in the last two cycles, so maybe some of that other baggage that you wave off is catching up or is insurmountable for some voters. I do think he'll get in, but maybe not this year.
12:29
I've struggled with all of that myself, honestly, but I've voted for him each time (since 2021)
CoriolesEffect
12:29
After the big 3+1 of Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander and Greinke, who's next for you in terms of SPs with a competitive Hall shot? Has Sale passed Cole?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Sale has passed Hamels in terms of JAWS but I hope we don't have to wait for his eligibility before we get another enshrined starter. I'm really not sure who would be next if not Hamels, unless the Contemporary Committee takes up the case of Johan Santana in 2029.
You did it again
12:33
Pretty sure Judge locked up the MVP based on how he finished.... right after you wrote about the race.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
Ha, you may have a point. On August 27 I wrote about Cal Raleigh's case for MVP (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cal-raleigh-has-set-a-record-and-leveled-t...) and from that night onward, Judge hit... .374/.533/.798 (251 wRC+) with 13 homers in 137 PA. Raleigh hit .252/.389/.579 (167 wRC+) with 10 homers in 131 PA from that point, so ... wow. I hadn't realized the gap was that wide afterwards.
War2D2
12:36
Hi Jay! I was in a friendly argument with my brother yesterday about the HoF candidacies of Pettitte and Hamels. My personal take was that Hamels deserves it more than Pettitte, but I probably wouldn’t vote for him. My brother took the opposite tack (really only because we were bored and needed something to complain about). I know you voted for Pettitte last time around—do you think he’s more deserving than Hamels, about the same, or less?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I actually voted for Pettitte 2 years ago (2024 ballot) then replaced him with Félix last year. Right now I lean Hamels, whose postseason credentials are solid if not as voluminous as Pettitte's
my hunch is since I have room this time around i'll probably vote both, and Félix, and I'll take another look at Buehrle
12:40
OK, due to the Cloudfare mess earlier, which delayed our editorial pipeline, Beltrán is being held for tomorrow. I'll have the Era Committee profiles of Bonds and Clemens Thursday and Friday, schedule-wise.
bringbackpologrounds
12:42
Rank the events that were most essential to the Dodgers becoming a juggernaut: 1. Guggenheim takes over 2. TV Deal 3. Mattingly dumped for Roberts 4. Shohei signs
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
I think that the order you have them in there — which is chronological — is actually about right. First, ditching McCourt for a well-capitalized owner who knew how to use the Dodgers' market to the franchise's advantage, then scoring the massive TV deal to support that, then shoring up the dugout by ditching a manager who couldn't work with a 21st-century front office, and then getting the biggest free agent of all time.
Martel Gonzalez
12:45
Do you think teams are worried about giving guys long term contracts with the lockout next year? Assuming the 27 season is canceled, players will be an extra year older than anticipated
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
A) if there's a lockout those players don't get paid. B) it's stupid to assume the 2027 season will be outright cancelled. the teams and MLB have far too much to lose to let that happen.
12:46
C) those players under contract were always going to get older.
Trevor
12:46
All these lockout articles today from prominent reporters…. How many games do you think both sides would realistically miss? A month? Whole season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
are there lockout articles today? I haven't seen any but I've been off of social media for a few hours. Again, I think the owners have far too much to lose to punt a whole season. Could they lose weeks? I suppose it's conceivable, but i'll put it as "less than a month" maximum
Matt Kory
12:49
Hey Jay! Hope all is well! What's the best beer you've had recently? Cheers!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
Matty! Long time no see on the socials. I've unfortunately gotten lazy about logging my beer picks but I was blown away by Treehouse Julius — which i'd only had once before, back in 2017 — when I bought some back in July while on Cape Cod. more recently, getting reacquainted with old friend Deschutes Black Butte Porter, which I had never seen before outside of a single now-defunct bar in NYC, has been a treat.
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