JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 11/18/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 11/18/25

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Jackson

12:52

If Schwarber and Realmuto don’t end up back in Philly, where do you see them going?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

A Schwarber-Cubs reunion wouldn't surprise me. If Realmuto leaves, I'm going to guess Padres since their catching has been dreadful lately.

Phil

12:55

Who is Jarren Duran, to you? I am very torn, as a Red Sox fan hearing these rumors. I'm not convinced he's homophobic, for what that's worth--I think he learned something from all of that. And he's a fascinating guy. But I'm not at all sure how good he really is, baseballwise.

Jay Jaffe

1:00

Man, I don't know, except that his fluctuations make him hard to pin down even if I set aside the Other Stuff. Some of that may be due to Fenway Park, where it's really tough to get a read on outfield defensive metrics. To me Duran seems to be a guy who's probably capable of manning center with above-average offense for the position for a couple of years, but may not be able to remain a significant plus in a corner. That's still a 3-4 win player for the next few years but not somebody i'd break the bank or tear up my roster for.

I do still have trouble getting past the slur, but I also know Duran has had some pretty serious mental health struggles as well, including a suicide attempt. I hope he's got a good support system in place, more than anything.

MikeD

1:01

It is a thin ballot, but depending on your views regarding PED players, I can see potentially nine future HOFers. Am I crazy?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

even if I count A-Rod and Manny, who aren't getting in via the writers and probably not the committees unless Bonds and Clemens go first (ha!) I can't get to 9. Beltrán, Jones, Utley... then a lot of others whose paths to Cooperstown are anything but clear, regardless of your or my evaluation of them

Jeremy

1:02

There are some players for whom the perception seems to really change between the time they retire and their time on the BBWAA ballot. Players who weren't widely seen as HoF candidates when they were active, who eventually get elected. And conversely, players who were seen as serious candidates when they were active, who never sniff election. Are they any generalities about such cases? Do they mostly arise when someone retires just before big changes in how the game is played? Are they mostly players who were under- or over-appreciated when active because advanced stats liked them better than traditional counting stats?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

The generality is something you touched upon: times change. The ways in which we view players both within the industry and as fans have been shaken up, with advanced statistics a big driver of that. With the permeation of analytics in front offices, player paths are more malleable than ever as well, so we get carefully calibrated swing changes and pitch development. We've also got workload changes that have had a huge impact on pitching, which has spilled over into hitter strategy (swing for the fences more, etc).

1:06

The game doesn't stay in one place for long, for better or worse.

TKDC

1:06

You’ve written a few times criticizing the new committee rule that “bans” a player “permanently” if he fails to reach a certain threshold on two eras votes, however, how much stock can you put in such a “permanent ban” when there is nothing at all keeping the Hall of Fame deo

just deciding to reverse it?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

For sure, the Hall has changed up the rules regarding committees so many times during this millennium that things don't stay in place long, but it's always harder to change course when there's a rule in place. Some majority of the Hall of Fame board wanted this permanent ban put into place, and so I don't think it can be waved off as something likely to change quickly, even if the format gets tweaked. And it's worth remembering that taking even 5-10 years to change course could be the difference between an honoree being alive or dead when he's finally elected.

2131, 1312

1:10

Will Paul Goldschmidt be viewed as as close to a shoo-in as Joey Votto seems to be? They have almost identical career values and counting stats (although I guess Goldy could still tack on a few more)

Jay Jaffe

1:12

their numbers will wind up looking very similar but Goldschmidt does not have the same level of cultural cachet as Votto — nobody's doing oral histories of his quirks or writing about his presence on social media. Writers love Votto, and that's going to accelerate his progress where Goldschmidt might take a few years for voters to come around.

Jeremy

1:12

It seems like rapid changes in starting pitcher use are always going to leave guys like Hamels, Petite, Santana as controversial borderline cases. Compared to many guys who came just a bit before them, they come up short. But compared to many guys who came just a bit after them, they're going to end up looking amazing. I really appreciate your work on how to adjust our standards to allow for changes in how the game is played. But aren't there are always going to be tough calls associated with players who played right in the middle of a time of rapidly changing standards?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

it's an ongoing challenge, and one real problem is that as careers like Hamels' being among the best, we don't have an easy mechanism to go back and reward guys like Stieb, Cone, Hershiser, Saberhagen et al who were as good or better but couldn't measure up to the 300-win guys who preceded them, and who represent the real anomaly in post-expansion baseball.

RallyGuy

1:14

Are the Yankees somewhat screwed if Trent Grisham takes the QO this afternoon?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

no, because a one-year deal is probably a better outcome for them than re-signing him to a 4- or 5-year deal where he's more likely to decline and require a move to a corner.

Kip

1:16

Should ATL be hyper aggressive in free agency this year? Their window appears to be closing after 2028: Acuna will be a free agent; Chris Sale will be retired by then; Ozzie will probably be out of baseball; Olson and Riley will be entering their decline phase.

Jay Jaffe

1:17

yeah I think this is a big winter for them, especially for fortifying their rotation.

Jerry

1:20

Uber Eats or DoorDash?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Seamless

Nico's Corner

1:20

You seem pretty optimistic about Beltran. Is the Astros thing his biggest hurdle? Is it the fact that his stats are so broad? Competition at a tough position? Played for too many teams?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

yes, the sign-stealing thing. His numbers are very strong — top 10 in JAWS with very similar counting stats (but better OBP and positional adjustment) to Andre Dawson.

Mr. T

1:21

With better advocacy would Ray Lankford have had a shot at the HoF?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

No. The guy had 38.2 career WAR and 1,561 hits. That's an obvious non-Hall of Famer.

2131, 1312

1:21

Would you rank Hamels above Mark Buehrle? and which of them will earn more votes?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Yes, I think so and I suspect the voters will see it that way too, if not in 2026 then eventually. Hamels was more valuable on a per-inning basis because he missed more bats, and he has a stronger postseason resumé as well.

Edna Krabapple

1:23

Was your point that guys like Shin Soo Choo merit induction based on being the first [country]-born player, or just that they should be considered/recognized somehow for that?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

recognized. For dozens of players, the honor is just getting on the ballot, and he merits that because of his stateside accomplishments and the significance of his path to the majors as the first Korea-born player.

1:25

guys like that have a huge impact in growing the game internationally.

Mike Teevee

1:25

Seems crazy to me that Lee Smith needed the Eras committee to get in. What was the beef against him among writers?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Smith debuted with 42.3% and by year 10 had only increased that to 50.6% — and then Bonds, Clemens et al showed up and began overshadowing everybody on the ballot. I think the big issue is that he wasn't seen as the epitome of dominance the way an Eckersley, Gossage, or Rivera were, even while once owning the saves record.

WinTwins0410

1:28

Jay, two questions: 1) I know we don't know the identities of the committee members yet, but doesn't it really seem like (and you've effectively written as much) that the only really likely Era Committee contenders are Kent, Mattingly and Murphy this year? Assuming the Hall acts as it has in the past, I just don't see them creating a committee that would let in anyone associated with PEDs. We'll know more when we see the committee's identity I realize, but it isn't really just a committee whose output will be electing one or more of those three guys? And then 2) Should we be surprised that Schilling, who got seven out of 16 votes last time, was omitted from this ballot? Seems that way to me. I find him to be exceedingly odious and wouldn't vote for him, but still -- I'm kind of surprised that he didn't rate a spot on this ballot, between the 7/16 votes last time and his previous BBWAA totals. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

I wouldn't entirely count out Sheffield, who has a plausible anti-Bonds narrative with regards to his PED connection, or Valenzuela, whose status as a pioneer is probably his real ticket in.

As for Schilling, the 5/16 rule (any candidate not getting five votes is ineligible to appear for the next cycle) seems at least partially designed to stagger a larger-than-manageable group across multiple ballots. Somebody had to get bumped, and I'd bet Schilling's open letter to the Hall requesting that he be shielded from the writers' ballot did him no favors.

Bog

1:32

Why has Utley's support been so tepid? He has a strong statistical case, a great peak and a clean record. Feels like an easy yes to me

Jay Jaffe

1:34

We're talking about a high-peak, short-career guy who got screwed out of awards and whose defensive metrics are doing a lot to drive his case. I don't see 39.8% after two cycles as tepid at all, especially when getting into the low 40s is generally a harbinger of future election.

Guest

1:34

not including Alomar, that guy doesn't count

do you think Delgado gets in just based on the fact we have 0 Jays in the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

whoops reversed the order of those two, and no, that's not going to drive voters to choose Delgado.

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