JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/25/19

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Jay Jaffe

12:02

Hey folks, welcome to my first solo chat in over two months! Between our postseason group chats, the Hall of Fame ballot releases timed to coincide with this time slot, and some lesser issues, I've been out of the loop with this process but for today, I'm back at it, just in time to avoid giving you any useful Thanksgiving tips.

Bring Back Jeff

12:03

In all seriousness, I do understand what you mean about batting average. This is fundamentally a game about entertaining us. We get to choose what we care about. And batting average is fun, even though it may not correlate all that strongly with the "value" of the player.

Jay Jaffe

12:06

Last week, a good chunk of our staff descended upon New York City and we did a FanGraphs live thing on Thursday. During my panel, which also included The Athletic's Lindsey Adler and Marc Carig, I went into a tangent on batting average, saying, "Let's give a shit about batting average again" or words to that effect (I haven't played this back https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1460-live-fro...), a sentiment that I've been mulling for months but haven't had the chance to write up in full treatise form

12:07

The statement, which i only briefly fleshed out, has to do with countering the aesthetic shortcomings of the current iteration of baseball before us, and I think Bring Back Jeff's non-question kind of summarizes some of that. Anyway, I'll have more to say about the topic at some point this winter, perhaps even in the next couple weeks, but I make no promises as to when because it's Hall season and I'm up to my neck in both Modern Baseball and BBWAA processes.

12:08

Anyway... on with the show, which will also be interrupted by a brief radio spot that you can hear via SiriusXM at about 12:35

Dave

12:08

After reading your piece it seems that Rolen didn't end up having a good relationship with the Cards or Phils. If he's elected does he go in without a logo?

Jay Jaffe

12:10

That's an interesting question whose reality we should be so lucky to ponder. Rolen seems to be a likely candidate for a blank cap given the bitter divorces he had from the aforementioned teams. He grew up rooting for the Reds and had two All-Star seasons there, but relatively few games, so I'm not sure that one makes sense.

stever20

12:10

what do you make of the early start to the free agent market(with a lot of above average signings)? Is free agency "back"? Or just a few fluky signings?

Jay Jaffe

12:12

I think it's a promising start to see major free agents - guys among the best available at their positions such as Grandal and Will Smith — come off the board before anybody has put their Thanksgiving turkey in the oven. That said, the bullshit of the Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers and other teams emphasizing how much they CAN'T spend should have everybody concerned that a) things could quickly get frosty and b) not everything is on the up-and-up.

Logan

12:13

A lot of Grandal’s value comes from pitch framing, but it seems that robot umpires are going to arrive at the MLB level within a few years. Do you think that at all impacted teams’ evaluation of Grandal’s long-term value? And more generally, do you think we’ll see smaller contracts for catchers in the future as a result of the electronic strike zone?

Jay Jaffe

12:17

We're probably at least a half decade away from full implementation of robot umps, given that it's something that would have to be addressed in the next CBA, contentious topics within which will hardly be in short supply even without this, and there has to be something in the next umpires' CBA too though I'm not sure when that's up for negotiation. Of greater relevance is the way framing ages for catchers in the early to mid 30s, but if you consider that including this past year's deal Grandal wound up getting about $90 million for his five years, a very modest advancement on the McCann and Martin deals, i don't think his valuation took much of a hit

bosoxforlife

12:18

Derek Jeter is unquestionably a Hall of Famer but I am puzzled by his bWAR. Despite having a 96.3 Offensive WAR his overall number is only 72.4. His defenseive number is -8.3. That can be argued about but where did the remaining 15.6 WAR go?

Jay Jaffe

12:21

WAR is not the sum of oWAR and dWAR; the positional adjustment is included within both. By B-Ref's reckoning, using Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved, Jeter was a whopping 243 runs below average but because he played shortstop, the second-most difficult position, he gets a boost via the adjustment whereas a DH like David Ortiz, who was just -15 runs afield, has a dWAR of -20.9.

ben

12:21

Putting aside contract provisions, do the Yankees have a legitimate gripe with Ellsbury, or is this just about saving money?

Jay Jaffe

12:22

I don't think any of us knows enough to say for certain. The description of the doctor makes him sound like a sketchy grad from Hollywood Upstairs Medical College, but the timing of this complaint by the Yankees — they're only learning about this now? — raises eyebrows.

Wes

12:22

Is it too early to start a ‘Bill Dahlen / Buck O’Neil / Gil Hodges 2021’ campaign?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

The guy promoting Jim McCormick's candidacy has been at it for a couple years already, and the Munson guys were at it for years, too. Knock yourself out, but don't expect me to retweet you endlessly (and I'm a firm no on Hodges — it's Miñoso and Dick Allen who deserve to go in via the Golden Days ballot).

Travis

12:24

The HoF is the one selecting the players/execs/etc. for the various committees, and there's little to no insight/transparency as to how those ballots are constituted & selected. Is there a >0% chance of that process ever being made more transparent for fans who wonder how those ballots are created?

Jay Jaffe

12:24

LOL no.

JKD

12:26

I am on board with you, about batting average! As a Nats fan, one of the fascinating things over the past not just season but six seasons, was how they really rebuilt the team basically *against* the consensus of "strikeouts and batting average don't matter" and chased players who put the ball in play (of course, hitting it hard), work at-bats, but mostly don't strike out. As everyone got to see - they're fun to watch! And I do think there is an extra, hard-to-quantify element where being able to put the ball in play helps you in the postseason.

Jay Jaffe

12:30

The successes of the Nationals (2nd-lowest K-rate in NL), 2018 Red Sox , 2017 Astros (leaving aside the obvious) and before them the 2014-15 Royals have suggested that lower strikeout rates can be very helpful so long as they're not just producing easy grounders to shortstop and so on. It's an interesting push-pull as to how that plays out in the postseason given the increased parade of hard-throwing, high-K% relievers, but I do think the industry in general has been underrating contact skills.

Jason N

12:30

I didn’t know blank cap was a thing. Doesn’t the Hall just choose his cap?

Jay Jaffe

12:31

The player can voice his preference, which will be taken into consideration, but the Hall has final say. I don't think they've gone against anybody who has preferred a blank cap.

Slapshot

12:31

Do you have any thoughts on Anthony Rieber's HOF ballot and his reasons for the vote? Seems quite insulting to the players he dumped from last year. Not to mention the fishy logic needed to claim Derek Jeter is so transcendent an athlete that he should be on stage at Cooperstown this coming summer alone (I mean, Mariano Rivera isn't worthy of the same honor in his eyes?).

Jay Jaffe

12:35

I'm out of the business of critiquing even the crummiest individual ballots, not because I'm giving anyone a pass for their poor choices (or in most cases lack of same) but because I'd rather save my energy for the more positive aspect of Hall season, namely promoting candidates I (and my system) support. I've found that this is a much more productive tactic when it comes to gaining acceptance for my work

12:37

ok there will be a brief pause while I talk to Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette on SiriusXM

Ben

12:51

Does Dwight Evans have any chance?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

...and I'm back, thank you to those who stuck around.

12:53

Evans has a chance, I guess, in that he's on the ballot and we don't know what the electorate will consist of — call this the Baines of Our Existence Effect — but I believe that there are at least 4 stronger candidates in there in Marvin Miller, Lou Whitaker, Ted Simmons, and Thurman Munson, and IMO, the debate for the fourth spot comes down to Evans or Munson, which is a career vs. peak argument most of all

Mac

12:54

Thoughts on the Jeter-Walker-Rolen comparisons? Why Jeter is an easy 1st ballot selection while Walker and Rolen might not get voted in at all despite very similar WAR totals among all three?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

it's not hard to understand why; Jeter had a much longer career, reached the major milestone of 3,000 hits, and played on five championship teams, while the others missed a lot of time due to injuries and only rarely had a postseason spotlight upon them.

What I hope the comparisons do is highlight the fact that our ability to estimate most every aspect of a player's game shows that even less-than-perfect-attendance guys like Rolen and Walker were every bit as valuable, if not moreso, than guys whom we routinely laud for reaching those milestones and sticking around until the bitter end.

Guest

12:57

How would you address the "5%" guys who deserve serious consideration but got dropped off the ballot because everyone forgot to vote for them? There obviously needs to be a way to distinguish them from the "nice to see on the ballot but no way a HoFer" guys. Maybe have the screening committee re-consider last year's dropoffs for re-nomination or something?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

I think I'd prefer a progressive threshold for remaining on the ballot, maybe three chances to get to 5%, and five chances to get to 15%. Something like that.

Robert

12:59

Over or under on 2022 as the year Bonds gets into the HOF? Seems like momentum is on his side, especially with the Selig induction.

Jay Jaffe

1:02

The momentum was on Bonds and Clemens' sides when the retired voters were sunset-clause'd in 2016 and Bud was elected in 2017, but that's no longer the case. The gruesome twosome has gained just about 5 points over the past two cycles and despite their receiving 83-85% of support from new voters, the electorate isn't turning over quickly enough to get them to 75%. And so long as the Hall of Fame can stack the Era Committee panel with whomever it chooses — Joe Freakin' Morgan, writer of the letter that helped to push back against the PED guys, was on last year's committee, fercryinoutloud — well, it could be a long while.

Denny

1:02

Given Beltran's lack of coaching/managing experience, is Meulens a decent choice for bench coach? Do you know much about him? Am curious about whether his strengths are in being a good clubhouse chemistry guy, a good in-game strategery guy, someone reasonably well-versed in analytics, etc...

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I like the choice, yes. I've heard great things about Muelens and am surprised he hasn't received stronger consideration as a manager, but the regime change in San Francisco, where both he and Ron Wotus were vying to succeed Bruce Bochy, obviously created an obstacle. I think he's viewed as a culture/communication guy (he speaks 5 languages) but he's got experience managing in the minors and WBC, as well as previous bench coach experience, so I imagine he'll help with the in-game stuff considerably.

Dave

1:06

Maddux, Halladay, Mussina examples of blank cap guys

Jay Jaffe

1:07

Catfish Hunter i think was the first, at least of the recent wave.

v2micca

1:08

Wheeler isn't Cole or Strasburg. But is there any reason that a team that intends to contend in 2019 shouldn't taking a closer look at him?

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