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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/25/19

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Jay Jaffe

1:10

He's vying with Ryu as the 3rd-best free agent starter after that pair. I'd imagine his injury history might be cause for concern, but he'd help most contenders by providing 180+ innings of above-average work for a few years

Roid ragin cajun

1:10

How do you feel about the HOF voters when they turn in a blank ballot? You don't have to answer that, just blink twice if you think its stupid.

Jay Jaffe

1:11

While I am loathe to criticize individual one-name ballots, I think blanks shouldn't be counted and that the idiots who send them in should be pelted with rotten tomatoes in the town square

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:13

I'm sure you have answered this, but are you more of a "Big Hall or Little Hall" guy? To me it seems if we have that debate, it means we are doing it the right way.

Jay Jaffe

1:15

I'm for an equitable Hall of Fame where we maximize the inclusion of deserving candidates and minimize the inclusion of undeserving ones. I'd like to think that's more nuanced than a big/little distinction but it probably is more the former than the latter.

Matt

1:15

I know you think the rationale for even considering this is absurd but can the Cubs move Contreras and/or Bryant and still be competitive in '20? Seems to be a move it or lose it approach to their core players, with respect to extensions.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

I mean, it depends on what they get in return, right? and on having some of the guys who underperformed in 2019 bounce back. I can't imagine a return for Bryant would justify a trade if he wins his grievance and gets to 5 years of service time, though I'm also not very sure he does win it. With Contreras, you're talking about a catcher who's averaged about 2 WAR over the past 3 years, that's hardly irreplaceable.

Cove Dweller

1:19

Just wanted to say that I really enjoyed your recent Marvin Miller article. I didn't know about how he felt about his induction (but I still think he should be in there).

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Thank you! Yes, I struggle with the question somewhat given his wishes and those of the family but I think the bigger priority is to appropriately recognize his place within baseball history, and having his plaque glare at Bowie Kuhn's for eternity seems fitting.

Jaffe SZN

1:21

Is it more fun when the ballot is overflowing like recent years or now when it might open it up for other folks?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

Good question. I think the packed ballots have been been boom times for my own work and the use of advanced stats to help triage the overcrowded ballots but I'm also happy to see a bit more breathing room so that guys like Walker, Rolen, Wagner, maybe even Sheffield and Abreu get some more love from voters.

Charlie

1:25

Is Max Scherzer a HOF lock yet? 7 years in a row of top 5 Cy finishes, including 3 wins. Does he need to get to 200 Ws to be considered a lock for the voters? I'm excited about the first HOFer to go in with a Nats hat on his plaque

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Though he didn't win the Cy Young this year, his 3 awards, World Series ring, and the inevitability of 3,000 strikeouts probably put him into near-lock territory

Tom

1:26

Thank you, for all of your HOF articles, but especially for your Vizquel article and the way you drew the contrast between him and Ozzie Smith. Growing up a Cardinals fan in the 1980s, it became cool for a time in the 1990s for kids to say that Vizquel was actually better than Smith. I'm glad to see you refute that

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Thanks. I can't say I love raining on people's parade about a player that many of them revere, but my commitment is to the process of analyzing candidates with the tools and context available, and letting our conclusions follow. And somebody's always gonna get the short straw there. That said, all of this, I think, is more interesting when it's challenging the conventional widsom in some way, and I think the Omar piece does that as much as the Rolen and Walker (e.g.) pieces do.

just a guy

1:29

bryant to the dodgers for may, lux, and someone else seems to make a lot of sense for both clubs no?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

LOL no, not if he's got only one year of control left and probably not with 2 years left even. Those are top-20 prospect guys, and Friedman isn't going to just give them away when they're already able to help.

TomBruno23

1:30

Today's unsolicited book rec: They Bled Blue by Jason Turbow. A Halbertstam-esque deep dive into the 1981 LA Dodgers. Do it

Jay Jaffe

1:31

I have to get to Michael Fallon's Dodgerland first — finally bought that via the U of Nebraska Press sale a few weeks ago and it's high on my list.

Roger

1:31

If you were inducted into the HOF of the National Sports Media Association, would you go in with a Fangraphs cap, an SI cap, or a . . . Thomas Dunne Books cap (as the publisher of The Cooperstown Casebook)?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

Haha, ask me in a couple decades on that one.

In all seriousness, one of the challenges I've put myself up to since becoming a BBWAA member in 2011 is getting out of the habit of wearing the caps of current teams. That means retiring my Yankees cap instead of wearing it to games I attend as a fan (I'm part of a partial season ticket package that dates back to 1998) and opting for others that have some significance. Salt Lake Bees (recognizing where I grew up, with a throwback to their pre-affiliation PCL days), Brooklyn Dodgers (since I've lived here since late 2007, and with multiple design varities), Walla Walla Padres (where my grandparents lived), and a Jayson Stark Spink Award commemorative cap are the ones in the current rotation.

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:37

For Thurmon Munson, why isn't he a HOFer if his peak is good enough for it? He DIED on his way to a 4 WAR season.. Are we assuming he would've sucked the rest of his career?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

Because for all too long, Hall voters have been way too focused on career length rather than peak.

Cooperstown Casebook fan

1:37

If Sweet Lou and Ted Simmons make it this year, will you consider a CC Vol 2? (Since maybe it means voters are heeding your advice?)

Jay Jaffe

1:40

I would really like to do a Casebook 2 and intend to pursue the matter in earnest soon. From the current book we've already got Raines (who was already elected by the time the book went to press, but was a victory lap), Trammell, Edgar, Mussina, and Rivera in. We can hope the same for Walker, and the two guys you name, and Schilling's election is inevitable. I've got current/recent profiles I'd include and some other ideas for ones, too (Bill Dahlen, come on down!) plus a few longer-form pieces in mind.

Greene

1:40

Now that Rivera broke the "unanimity barrier," so to speak, will we see much more frequent unanimous HOFers?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

More frequent in that we may see some — perhaps even Jeter — but I don't think it's going to be automatic.

Matt

1:42

Do you expect both Lester and Quintana to continue experiencing the steady deterioration in performance that we've begun to see over the last couple seasons?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

I'm more optimistic about Quintana than Lester due to age/mileage but I think both are capable of being better than average in 2020.

1:43

Jay great job on the panel last Thursday. I wanted to ask a question to all of the three panels but time never allowed. Knowing what we know right now, if forced to choose a single position for him, would you have ohtani hit full time or gamble on the "ace" upside and convert him 100% to pitching

Jay Jaffe

1:44

That's a tough one. If I'm going the hitting route I'd want him to play the outfield, too, so as to augment his value, but I think the pitching might be worth pursuing first, knowing that the hitting can be a fallback if there are complications.

v2micca

1:44

I'm one of those that still believes in the quality of Jharel Cotton's stuff and think the Cubs got an absolute steel on what could easily become their Jake Arrietta 2.0. Am I just completely off in my assessment?

Jay Jaffe

1:45

That's almost certainly a stretch but he's worth a flyer at the very least

Roid ragin cajun

1:45

What are the odds that any of the accused steroid users (Clemens/Bonds/Sosa, etc), making the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

Unless the current dynamic changes, long odds. But never is a long time and I do think we'll see a point where the wind shifts.

Hal

1:46

How much faith do you put in pre-UZR/DRS defensive stats? Your Vizquel article led me to read up on how Total Zone's calculated and now I think we treat it as much more authoritative than it really is

Jay Jaffe

1:49

I put some faith in TZ, obviously. Intuitively the way it's constructed makes some sense — divvy up responsibility on balls in play, compare to league positional average — but certainly think it's worth looking at multiple systems. With Omar, he does pretty well by those numbers, but the giant crater left by his offensive shortcomings means it's not nearly enough to justify election, IMO.

Cownose Ray

1:50

How much do you think catcher defense, or defense in general, will be rewarded by the committee going forward? Isn't it fair that McCann and Rolen look really great only in light of defense, but weren't spectacular (like Ozzie Smith or Brooks Robinson spectacular) to garner special recognition among the stodgier voters?

Jay Jaffe

1:52

If you don't think Rolen wasn't spectacular you (by which i mean voters) weren't paying attention. The Gold Gloves suggest at least somebody was, and the work is well-supported by the advanced metrics.

Which, getting back to the question about TZ: any system where Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger (and very close behind, Ozzie Smith), Willie Mays, and Roberto Clemente rank number one at their positions, backing a whole lot of conventional wisdom and contemporaneous observation, seems to be a system worth paying attention to.

Wireless Joe Jackson

1:52

Not sure how to report this, but the "load more comments" button hasn't worked for me on any articles for about a month now (Chrome).

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