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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Hey folks, apologies for the delay this week. I'm deep into my Hall of Fame profile series, awaiting the publication of my Roy Halladay piece. Later today I'll also publish a tentative schedule of the candidate profiles as well as a link to a very cool new feature: the FanGraphs Crowdsource Hall of Fame ballot, in which registered users will be able to cast their own votes from 0-10 candidates from now until December 31.
As I await the delivery of my burrito, let's get to it, with questions about both the Hall and the Hot Stove.
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
12:33
Have the Braves already won the off season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I really like the Josh Donaldson deal; as we often say, there are no bad one-year contracts, and for a team like the Braves, with a lot of young talent and money to spend (see https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-braves-profits-provide-glimpse-int...), this seems like a good move; if Donaldson is worth about 2.5 wins, it's more or less break-even from a $/WAR standpoint, and if he's anything close to his track record besides last year, it's a bargain, and there's no long-term risk.

As for the addition of McCann, I don't have high hopes given his recent lack of durability, but he can still be a solid backup and doing so where his career began is one of those nice full-circle stories.

That said, the Braves still have work to do, including adding a right fielder and some kind of rotation upgrade, so let's not anoint them the winners just yet.
Acunami
12:38
With your great work on hitters, how do you see young pitchers and their chances for the Hall? Buehler, even Soroka with his limited but good debut?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Given the fragility of elbows, shoulders and backs, I can't even begin to ponder the Hall chances of a rookie, because far too much can happen. Hell, even two-time Cy Young winners like Saberhagen, Santana and McLain are outside the Hall of Fame. There just aren't any guarantees that even the best young pitcher can survive the brutal realities for even the 10 years needed to qualify for election.
Charlie Hayes
12:41
Where would you peg McCutchen's chances of reaching the HOF if, say, he plays 5 more seasons and reaches 300 HRs, 2200 Hits, & 60 fWAR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Low, if those are his career numbers. He's not nearly the all-around player Larry Walker was; through age 31, Walker was nearly 200 runs ahead of Cutch in terms of baserunning and fielding via B-Ref's WAR components, and about 15 WAR ahead overall — and he's having a very hard time getting voters' attention. Yes, Coors and the injuries played a part in that, but it goes to show what a hill it is to climb.

Cutch is still young enough that he might get something closer to 2,500 hits, which could help, but his seven-year peak score fo 37.8 is about seven wins short of the average HOF center fielder, and guys like Edmonds, Lofton and Andruw Jones, with better numbers, have been rejected by the voters.
Rox Fan
12:46
Which way do you see Larry Walker's HOF candidacy trending?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
Up, but not to 75% via the writers. He surged about 12 points last year, but only to 34.1%, and with just two years remaining. That said, if he gets to 50%, or even into the 40s, as Alan Trammell did in his final turn, the Today's Game Committee might well smile on him. Put a guy like Tony La Russa — a huge Walker admirer who had him at his final stop — on that committee and we may well see him elected in short order.
Will
12:49
Do you think the MLB should make more of an effort to bump exposure to foreign baseball leagues to American audiences? Showing ABL or NPB games in the offseason on MLBNetwork, etc. could be beneficial to the health of the game long term.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
It can't hurt, but i'd imagine that particularly with regards to NPB there are complexities involving TV rights, and you've got the additional hurdle of the language barrier to overcome. Is there an English-speaking booth covering every game? I honestly don't know.
Slamboni
12:50
This Cano/Diaz to the Mets talk is so weird. I could see this being a late Jan/Feb trade if they had no luck dumping Cano but in November?!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I don't really get it, on a number of levels. Why deal prospects for Diaz when you can sign, like, Andrew Miller or David Robertson or, uh, Jeurys Familia? Why block either Jeff McNeil at 2B or Peter Alonso at 1B?
Jared
12:52
How would you rank the Brewers three young pitchers -- Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff -- going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
My credentials to judge young pitching are limited, but I certainly liked what I saw out of Woodruff in the postseason. I'm intrigued by Peralta, whom my colleagues have covered more closely. I don't know much about  or haven't seen much of Burnes TBH, but I know the Brewers think he can start, too. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Matt
12:54
You see the picture tweeted of Corbin on the Yanks video board? That's a photoshop, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
Yeah, Photoshop or something similar. As I understand it, the Phillies did the same thing. Pretty sure at this point every front office can do this kind of stuff for quick PR stuff for actual transactions, so it doesn't surprise me they use it while wooing potential free agents.
Hmm..
12:56
This Mets deal, who might regret it more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
The answer to any question along these line is invariably the Mets.
Joe Simpson
12:57
So apparently I am getting bumped to backup duty for Braves TV.  Any interest in having me complain about silent traditions on Fangraphs?  I can make efforts to equally offend everyone if that is helpful.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Good riddance. Out of touch to the point of offensiveness, exactly the kind of non-ambassador for the sport that MLB and individual teams should be jettisoning from their booths as they ponder the future.
Rox Fan
12:58
What would it take (combination of prospects and cash) for the Rockies to send Ian Desmond to Miami for Realmuto? I'm sure Brendan Rodgers would have to be included, but what else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
It would take all of the drugs in Miami to get that deal done, and since the Marlins probably have better hookups than the Rockies do given their geographic proxmity, there's no reason for a Desmond/Realmuto deal.
stever20
1:00
opening day 2019, where do you think Greinke is pitching?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
Pure speculation on my part but Milwaukee (where he had success) and St. Louis come to mind as possibilities,
Rockie Dangerfield
1:01
Whoa whoa whoa, you're waiting for a burrito delivery!?  Who delivers burritos!?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
This is New York City, man. We've even got late-night cookie deliveries, not to mention things that you non-New Yorkers probably can't even imagine, some of which certainly aren't legal (not that I utilize those services, but there's a whole HBO series about that stuff, High Maintenance).

In this case, I'm awaiting a burrito from Oaxaca Taqueria. Not the best Mexican food around me, but reliable, especially when it comes to delivery.
Southern Bleacher Bum
1:05
Is Jedd Gyorko not part of the Cardinals plans? Change of scenery candidate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
We know the Cardinals have been interested in 3B upgrades such as Donaldson and Moustakas. With DeJong, Wong, Carpenter and Gyorko — not to mention Jose Martinez at 1B — somebody's gonna be the odd man out. At $13 million for 2019, with another $13 million for a 2020 club option, Gyorko is too expensive for the bench, and you have to admit, Jedd Gyorko is an odd name. He can help many teams, though.
Maximum Munchies
1:08
Re: Braves' offseason, removing the old man that yells at clouds from their broadcast is an off-season winning move.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
I hadn't seen that news when I answered the first question, but yeah, it bumps their score a little.
Al
1:09
Does Corey Kluber's current HoF case more closely resemble that of Halladay or Saberhagen/Santana/McLain?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
it's different from all of those guys in that he didn't even generate positive value until his age-27 season and (knock on wood) hasn't missed major time due to injuries since establishing himself. I still think he's a longshot, HOF-wise, but Halladay's election would help his cause if he shows some staying power.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
1:12
If there was a Hall of Fame for uniform designs, which MLB teams would have their jerseys proudly hanging? Cardinals, Yankees, and Giants seem like shoe-ins.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
I'd put the Tigers and Dodgers there, too.
Sum
1:13
Jeff's Tuesday piece about MadBum's trade value raised the question of whether Zaidi would want that trade to be the first thing he did as Pres of Baseball Ops, as it could sour him to the fanbase. in the game that is team-to-team transactions, how much does a fanbase's opinion of a deciderer impact what deals they are able to make? are other GMs able to leverage a hometown GM's popularity in any meaningful way? (also don't believe that trading stars is always a net negative, even in the short-medium term, for the GM. see, for instance: Garciaparra, Nomar)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
I think the Giants' fanbase is sophisticated enough, and understanding enough of the situation, to grasp why Zaidi may need to trade Bumgarner. I think a fan base can eventually make a GM/PrezOps' life miserable, but more along the lines of a DePodesta-Lo Duca shocker that leaves a red-meat-thirsty media scratching its head as it closes in on said exec.
Tyler
1:21
How can someone who voted for Vlad not vote for Berkman?  Berkman was the better fielder runner and hitter, and put up more value in fewer games.
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