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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
First, Berkman didn't dazzle on an aesthetic level the way Vlad did. Not by a country f'ing mile.

Second, Berkman's career was short enough that he didn't collect 2,000 hits, which has been a bright-line test for voters in that nobody from the post-1960 expansion era with fewer than 2,000 has been elected.

Third, not every voter — less than half of them, I assure you — is guided by value metrics.

I don't plan to "vote" for Berkman on my virtual ballot ( https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/29/hall-fame-virtual-ballot-2018), but then I left Vlad off last year, since my exercise is guided by JAWS. I was happy to see his election. I'd be pretty pissed to see Berkman elected and not Walker, not that there's any danger of that happening.
Jeff
1:26
As a Mets fan, can you talk me off the proverbial ledge? Between seeing the steep price the team is willing to pay for a 36 year old with 5 years left on his deal and now Kiley's report that they're very motivated to trade away Syndergaard, how can I not view this as anything other than bad in both the short and long term?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
They're owned by the Wilpons. We'll send up some supplies for that ledge.
Minnie MInoso
1:28
Why aren't I in the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
Because you never got a fighting chance in front of an electorate that saw the heart of your career —  in part due to a clerical error and some bygone rules, and then the cameos — and in part because none of the committees has been able to consider the totality of your Negro Leagues and MLB careers as one.

It's a crime you're not in the Hall of Fame. You're number one on my list for election by executive order if anyone gives me that power.
DJ Tanner
1:30
Can't McNeil play 3B? Maybe Frazier is the one that loses out. He wasn't very good last year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
In the short term, yes, Frazier is probably the odd man out, but he's only under contract for 2019 and can play multiple positions. McNeil and Alonso have six years of control remaining. Blocking either with Cano, until the Mets get a truer sense of their capabilities, is malpractice.

Oh, and it's probably worth pointing out that McNeil played all of 16 MLB innings at 3B. We don't *really* know whether he can handle the position.
Confused
1:32
Are people ignoring the amount of pitching available when asking what legit return for Syndergaard would be?  Seems like not the best time for mets to be selling him with MadBum and multiple free agents available.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:35
there's that and the lack of cost control attached to Syndergaard as well. The returns for guys like Sale, Quintana and Archer will wind up higher because they were signed at below-market rates, whereas he's likely to command top dollar relative to his arbitration class
The Old Buccaneer
1:36
How different will the Giants’ rebuild look from what the Tigers are trying to do? Granted, they don’t have Miggy and his contract to deal with.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
very, in that Zaidi's front office will be more analytically inclined than Avila's, and in that he doesn't have a similar base of young pitching talent to sift through immediately
IndyMets
1:37
Hah ... remember Silver's Burrito Bracket?  You could do the NYC version
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
Between working and parenting, I don't have time for that kind of thing, alas. Any surplus writing time will (eventually) go towards some kind of follow-up to The Cooperstown Casebook, whether it's a revised paperback version or a sequel or what-have-you.
Insomnia Cookies
1:39
So great! In other news, where does Ottavino go? I think a Brooklyn boy might want to return home...
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
Via Joel Sherman, the Yankees have shown interest. He's another guy who'd make more sense for the Mets than emptying the farm system for Diaz.
Phils Phever
1:39
What chance do SABR friendly candidates like Rolen and Andruw that started with a small vote percentage but survived the 5% cutoff have to build momentum? Does their vote total end up at, or at least near, election in their last years on the ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:42
We've never seen an modern-day candidates (since 1966, when the voting returned to annual) start from that low a share and get elected; the low is Duke Snider's 17.0% and he needed 11 years, which is longer than the current eligibility period. The evolution of the electorate and thinning of the ballot will help Rolen and Jones, but realistic hopes probaby center more around getting to 40-50% and setting up for Today's Game than getting to 75%.
James
1:42
Segura for Cozart, no prospects, just contracts, who says no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:43
Mariners. Segura''s value is MUCH higher due to age and cost control (thru '22 with '23 club option).
Roman Numeral Three
1:43
Assume Mussina gets into the HOF.  Which cap does his plaque wear: Orioles, Yankees, or Blank?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:44
Orioles. All of the numbers, both traditional and advanced, point to his Baltimore tenure as superior save for the fact that he never pitched in a World Series for them.
Matt W
1:45
When it comes to ordering food in NYC, reliable, fast delivery >>>>>> taste
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:45
Yeah but where is my damn burrito, this is longer than I expected to wait.
Nick
1:45
Should the Mets be pursuing any starting pitching (i.e. Eovaldi) to bolster their rotation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
Matt
1:46
Could you rank the following SPs from most likely to least likely to get into the HOF: Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke, Sale, Sabathia. Is that the order?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:49
Sale doesn't really belong in this discussion yet, he's 136th in JAWS, where Sabathia and Scherzer are 71st and 72nd. So he's last. As for the rest, that order looks about right though i might move CC forward another notch or two on the basis of the 250 win/3000 K combo that he should reach next year.
Big Tuna
1:50
Are you a big Insomnia Cookie guy? I prefer Chip in Astoria.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:50
I've actually never had either. My discretionary late-night calories tend towards beer, not sweets.
D
1:51
You often mention the average JAWS score for a given position when discussing a player's HOF worthiness. Is average or better your default standard? Or would you want a player to be considerably better or allow him to be considerably worse?

(Keeping in mind it's not written in stone, of course.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:53
JAWS is a starting point, not the end of the discussion. Average or better is perfectly reasonable, IMO, but I'm inclined towards high-peak exceptions like Halladay. The relative ranking at the position, particularly at a skewed one like center field, where Beltran, Lofton and Andruw are just below the standard but rank 9, 10, 11, is important too.
stever20
1:53
how much do you think Machado's comments are going to hurt him in FA?  it seems like it could be more than thought?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:54
Eh, right now it's all posturing for PR purposes. I won't believe it cost him a nickel until we see the final contract.
Phan
1:54
What should the phils do to their infield this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:55
transplant a young player's knees into Chase Utley, trade Cesar Hernandez for prospects, sign Machado, and win the NL East.
onomatopoeia
1:56
I read your piece on Steinbrenner for the HOF. Are there other owners that you think could have a chance some day?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:58
I haven't thought about it for much longer than I've been typing this answer but John Henry's remake of the Red Sox from a competitive and cultural standpoint makes him worthy, particularly as an antidote to Tom Yawkey's regrettable presence in the Hall.
2:00
OK , folks. Burrito is here, and I'm out of time. Look for an InstaGraphs post on the writeup schedule and the crowdsource ballot, and check out the four profiles in the series thus far: Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina and Roy Hallladay — the cream of the 2019 crop. Thanks for stopping by!
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