JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/8/18

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Jay Jaffe

1:01

he showed some signs early in the year but appears to have given most of that back. His GB/FB actually got worse, relative to 2017.

That said, the kid is 23 years old and built to mash. If guys like J.D. Martinez, Justin Turner and Max Muncy can figure it out eventually, I don't see why Mazara can't – but he needs the right instruction.

Dave

1:02

On a scale of 1-10, how big of a shock will it be if Soto beats Acuna for NL ROY?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

1. Similar number of games, similar totals of HR, similar wRC+, same WAR. one did it as a teenager, which didn't escape notice, and one did it as a key player on a playoff club. Coin toss. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y...

Dan

1:03

Major League Baseball has the best baseball players in the world. If they all stopped playing they would still have best players in the world. the best in he world would be a little worse but MLB would be the basically same. I think the longing for older, better players would have a small effect on profits for longer than three years though.

Jay Jaffe

1:04

If they all stopped playing in MLB, presumably there would be a rival league ready to spring up full of experienced MLB players.

Lou

1:05

Did the Zaidi hire increase the chances of a Bumgarner trade?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

Yes, but not to the point of certainty. As an outsider coming in, he's bound to have less sentimental attachment to Bumgarner, and of course he was hired for having the longer-term view of the franchise in mind. If that means trading Bumgarner this winter or next July, I think he'll be more able to pull the trigger than Bobby Evans would have been.

1:07

Looks like Justin Upton has a good shot at breaking Reggie Jackson's career K's record. What's your estimate for Upton's HOF chances?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

10-20%. He's got some solid career HR and hit totals thanks to his early start, but hasn't done enough to consistently be considered one of the best players in the league, so he'll be viewed more as a compiler than a true star unless he starts stringing together 5-win seasons in his 30s. that's not an easy thing to do.

IndyMets

1:10

Keith will enter the HOF as a broadcaster .. He's the cream!

Jay Jaffe

1:11

(whispers) the Frick Award isn't "entry" to the Hall. It's a photo in a separate wing, not a plaque in the gallery.

Josh in DC

1:12

Who came up with the ballot for "Today's Game"? If you were to ask me to come up with 30 recent players that maybe deserve another thought for the Hall of Fame, I'm not sure how long it would have taken me to come up with Joe Carter.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

it's something called the Historical Overview Committee, made up of veteran BBWAA scribes, and I mean *veteran*. IIRC I counted four Spink Award winners among them and an untold number of appearances on various Vet/Era Committee panels. While I do know that some of the individuals on the committee have, say, cited WAR before, collectively, their frame of reference isn't one that jibes very well with a stathead view of the ballot or the Hall.

Brian

1:14

2019 HOF class will be Edgar Martinez, Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina and Mariano Rivera. if you had to guess is this 100/75/50/25/0 % correct

Jay Jaffe

1:15

I don't think Mussina will get to 75% in this traffic, but I think there's a good chance we see the other three go in.

Josh in DC

1:15

Since Pete Rose and Joe Jackson are ineligible for the Hall of Fame, shouldn't George Steinbrenner also be ineligible? I can't remember the details, but didn't Steinbrenner also consort with gamblers, and was kicked out of baseball for a year?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Jackson and Rose are on the permanently ineligible list. They have not been reinstated by any commissioner. Steinbrenner was banned in 1990 for paying $40,000 to a private investigator to dig up dirt on Dave Winfield, but was reinstated in 1993 by Bud Selig. Therefore, he is eligible for consideration.

It's not quite a parallel situation, but a player suspended for PEDs gets reinstated and then remains eligible for HOF consideration. Doesn't mean that a voter needs to forgive the suspension, though, and I suspect Steinbrenner's two suspensions (the other related to illegal campaign contributions in the 1970s) work against his election. I'll have more to say about him in my Today's Game series.

1:20

Are you guys tired of all the Harper/Machado questions yet?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

It comes with the territory of being a baseball writer. I'd much rather be asked about Harper/Machado than why I can't fill out those TPS reports correctly, or whether I've made my monthly sales quota, or whether this thing looks infected.

Ariel White

1:21

Why are current averages given as HOF standards for your JAWS? If only above average guys are elected, that will cause the standards to get higher and higher (there aren't enough guys who deserve to get elected for postseason or amazing peaks that fall short on JAWS etc to keep the averages down). Shouldn't players be elected if they are within one or a half stdev or something like that?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

calling it "the standard" is a shorthand; it's interchangeable with "the average." The stated goal of the JAWS project is to maintain or improve the standards of election, or at least prevent them from getting eroded. That said, there are considerations outside of WAR/JAWS that are completely germane to the Hall discussion (postseason performance, historical significance, career gaps caused by the color line, military service or even severe injury or death) that might well justify the inclusion of a player whose JAWS is short of the standard.

And the standard isn't intended to be a binary yes/no — when it moves by half a point or whatever when a superstar or substandard candidate is elected, it shouldn't really change how we feel about somebody who's within a point on either side.

Nate

1:26

What do you think about Matt Harvey as a possible match in Houston? Think there's still any chance of resurrecting the Dark Knight?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Houston seems to have a good track record of fixing/restoring pitchers, so yeah, he might be a fit there. Given the level of interest in him around the deadlines, I suspect he's going to wind up with a noncontender while he continues to try restring his value.

FA's

1:28

Yankees biggest free agent signing will be _______?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Corbin.

I am the Walrus

1:28

Reports have the Cubs watching their budget. What's your best guess, smoke screen or can they really afford Harper?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Cots estimates them as having a $209 million payroll for 2019, including arbitration raises. Unless you make a couple trades and creatively structure a Harper deal it seems like the Cubs would be in luxury tax country for 2019, but after Hamels and Zobrist come off the books in a year, they'd have more room.

Bottom line, I wouldn't entirely rule out the Cubs but they're lower on my list to sign him than I would have said a month ago.

Joseph Garrison

1:32

Any interest in seeing some work later this winter that somehow marries the idea of WAR, WAR7 and JAWS with Win Shares, Win Shares over 11 consecutive seasons and Win Shares comparison by position. This is how I will spend my off season... fun with Spread Sheets.

Jay Jaffe

1:34

It sounds like fun but IMO, Win Shares has long been surpassed as a useful measure in this arena. I love my copy of the New Bill James Historical Abstract and the perspective it provides but I think its measures are themselves historical now — we can do better, and we are.

Yankees

1:34

Can they land Corbin and Keuchel in FA and flip Sonny Gray and prospects for Paxton or Kluber?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

That's a hell of a lot — at most I can see them signing one of the two OR trading for one of the big guns, not necessarily with Gray going the other direction.

Scott

1:36

Albert Belle isn't going into the Hall of Fame, but Kirby Puckett is in. If their public personas were reversed would that still be the case?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

Belle has had his brushes with the law, including a stalking case in 2006, but Puckett's history of violence against women suggests he much worse. Had what was known about him at the time of his death been common knowledge, I don't think he'd have been elected.

____

1:37

The Mets make 1 surprisingly bold/large move this offseason. What is it?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

Signing Machado would be my best guess if they were to do something big and shocking. I'd put the odds of that at well under 50%, though.

1:38

what are your thoughts on where bryce harper will go? everywhere i look i see writers talking about how harper will go to the giants, but with Farahan Zaidi as their new head of baseball operations, i dont think hell go after Harper. He was on a podcast with Alex Pavlovic, and talked about filling out the 40 man.

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Today, I'd put the Phillies and Dodgers as the top two candidates for Harper's service, in spite of the news that the Dodgers have said they want to stay below the tax threshold.

Tom

1:39

Do you think that team specific Hall of Fames help or hurt a candidate? For instance, could Ted Simmons being inducted to the Cardinals Hall of Fame help his candidacy, being acknowledged publicly as an all-time great for that team, or would it hurt his candidacy, in that the Committee would look at that and say, he got some recognition? Or do those not come into play, really?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

I think they tend to help raise a candidate's visibility. No harm done.

Xolo

1:40

Why is Ohtani not the runaway consensus ROY? Is it just Yankees fans being Yankees fans or is the season Ohtani had really that unappreciated?

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