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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/8/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
Ohtani's season is underappreciated and overshadowed somewhat by his elbow injuries, first the absence and then the TJ. I do think he'll win AL ROY handily, if not necessarily unanimously.
Lawrence
1:42
On average, how many Hall of Famers are playing in the majors at any given time?  And do you think we currently have a higher or lower number?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:45
It varies based on the period of time. As I wrote in The Cooperstown Casebook, the average over a very long swatch of history, from 1885-1993, the average was 1.79 HOFers per team per season, and that's since gone up with the elections of Morris and Trammell. For the period 1961-1997, which is about as far as one could go at the time of the book's publication before coming to the point where a lot is still up for grabs, it was 1.36 which equates to about 41 active Hall of Famers. I suspect fewer than 41 players active right now will actually be elected, but that gives you an idea.
brooksie
1:45
Who do you think will win the AL Cy Young Award?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
Snell. 20+ wins with a sub-2.00 ERA is a very tough combination to beat, historically speaking.
stever20
1:46
what do you make of the claims that the Dodgers aren't going to pay the luxury tax the next 4 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
Not sure yet. Certainly enough to raise an eyebrow.
Eric
1:47
Any chance the Yankees trade for Greinke? If Arizona is trying to save some money and pivot, seems like Yankees could be a good match
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:48
A lot depends upon whether Greinke wants to pitch in New York (he has a 15-team no-trade clause) and how much money the Dbacks would eat.
Adam
1:48
Thanks for chatting, Jay! I'm reading the Cooperstown Casebook currently. The line about Ortiz being "literally the player to be named later" was brilliant.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:49
Thank you! I have to credit a past version of myself for that one — first used it in the Baseball Prospectus 2005 book about the Red Sox, Mind Game.
Canoodle
1:49
If you were Kim Ng and Fahran offered you the GM position to help run the Giants, would you take the job?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:53
Yes, in that I think the Giants' situation is a much better one than the Mets or Orioles openings would be. On the other hand, I can understand if Ng feels like she'd be too secondary under Zaidi or if their philosophies aren't necessarily a great match.

The front office has turned over since she was there, but I do wonder if Ng would be a better fit to replace Zaidi in LA.
1:54
OK folks, I've pretty much run out of time today. Thanks for stopping by, keep reading about the Today's Game candidates, and I'll see you next week!
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