JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/17/21

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat. This is my first one since the end of the World Series, but also my last one for calendar 2021, a situation that owes mainly to the volume of coverage on my Hall of Fame beat.

2:03

Anyway, we're in the midst of a lockout, which sucks, but we have plenty to discuss today. Before we do, I'll call attention to today's entry in my HOF profile series, Bobby Abreu, who makes for a nice palate-cleanser after my Bonds/Clemens/Sosa/Schilling clearinghouse post and then my update on the Omar Vizquel situation(s). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-bobb...

2:04

Also landing today is the podcast spot I did with David Laurila in which we discussed our Hall of Fame ballot coping strategies https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jay-jaffe-and-david-lauril...

2:05

Anywhoo, there are a good number of questions in the queue, so on with the show...

Justin B

2:05

Hi Jay, I have been loving all the extra HOF coverage this year. Thanks for your diligent work! My question is about anonymous HOF voters. I read a suggestion a couple years ago that some might work for newspapers that don’t allow their writers to vote, but who want to anyway. Do you have any sense whether there are many such voters, or do you think most anonymous voters simply want to avoid ballot criticism?

Jay Jaffe

2:06

I think it has more to do with the latter, not wanting the criticism. If anything, in the last couple of years I've heard from some voters that they wish their outlets wouldn't let them vote, and/or express relief that they're not allowed to. I doubt there are many actively subverting their employers

Leroy Jenkins

2:07

Thoughts on the future HOF candidacy of Zack Greinke?

Jay Jaffe

2:08

I think he'll sail in. 213 wins already, shot at 3,000 strikeouts (needs 191), right around the JAWS standard and above the new S-JAWS one), plus he's a media favorite.

Ken Boyer

2:08

What are his chances going forward? His JAWS is considerably better than Hodges Oliva or Katy but he got almost no support.

Jay Jaffe

2:11

Clearing four candidates from the Golden Days group should help his cause, but he's been dead for 39 years and I don't get the sense there's a strong movement to see him elected, unlike Gil Hodges. I'd put his chances below those of Dick Allen, and probably Maury Wills as well, even though the statistical case is stronger than that of Wills.

Christian Colon for Men

2:11

Which player who will become HOF eligible in the next 5 years are you most looking forward to writing about?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, and Buster Posey are three I'm looking forward to.

Christian Colon for Men

2:12

What percentage would you give the HOF voters as a whole for weighing peak versus longevity?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

Longevity clearly carries the day among more recent voters; see the Rule of 2,000 and the recent scarcity of non-300 win pitchers. I've come around more to the idea of emphasizing peak because in a lot of cases the added longevity doesn't add a whole lot of value.

Colb

2:14

Does Scott Rolen get in this year?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

I doubt he'll make up the 22.1% he needs to add to reach 75% all in one fell swoop; that would be the sixth-largest jump in post-1966 history, but without the urgency of his 10-year window nearing a close. i think he's a year or two away.

Ekland

2:16

The analytics has gotten people to change their outlook on some players and got guys like Raines, Byleven and Trammell into the hof. I think Rolen will eventually get in does Abreu eventually have a chance?

Jay Jaffe

2:17

very long shot, i think. But I do think that if he posts steady gains, his case will look a whole lot different to an Era Committee than it does right now. Those voters tend to care a lot about how a player did on the writers' ballot, as I've detailed before

2:18

it took until Ted Simmons' election on the 2020 Modern Baseball ballot for a single one-and-done candidate to gain entry — and that's 40 years into the application of the 5% rule.

Ben

2:18

It looks like in 3 years, in additional to strong candidates like Ichiro and, to a lesser extent, Sabathia, a ton of borderline candidates will hit the ballot (King Felix, Ian Kinsler, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist, and Curtis Granderson). How many of those do you think will initially clear 5%?

Jay Jaffe

2:21

not all of them! I don't think Tulo will last, or Granderson. Maybe Martin and Pedroia, who probably have slightly better shots than McCann and Kinsler, but I don't see any of them getting far.

Justin B

2:21

I just re-read your 2014 write-up on Palmeiro and back then you seemed undecided how to regard his failed test, since it came only in his final year. Has your position on him evolved/codified since then? If he were on this year’s ballot would you treat him the same as ARod and Manny, or do you think you would give him leniency?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

I've become pretty consistent in terms of not voting (or "voting" on my virtual ballots) for players who failed a test and were suspended, which describes Palmeiro, and right now, he'd be off my ballot along with the two guys you name. Once in awhile I do think about the possibility of just going performance-only, ignoring suspensions, but I'm not there yet, and really not all that close to being there either. I'd rather put my vote towards a guy whom I'm convinced belongs but needs the electoral help

Guest

2:24

Who makes it into the Hall of Fame first: Scott Rolen or Adrian Beltre?

Jay Jaffe

2:25

I think at worst they go in together in 2024, with Rolen having some additional chance of getting in next year.

Rob

2:25

Instead of using an average as the JAWS standard, have you considered using a range, e.g., 20th to 80th percentile? It would help the standard seem less like a "cut line," and would eliminate the inhumanly high-WAR guys (most of whom were pre-integration) that wreck the curve.

Jay Jaffe

2:28

I think about all kinds of variations, and I deviate a bit from my own system by voting for guys who might be a little bit low (Sheffield and Abreu, for example), but generally have chosen to stick with *presenting* the system in a fairly simple form. Nobody is bound to use JAWS as the sole determinant of his or her ballot, and I don't want to overwhelm them with complexity if they're interested in using it. Baseball Reference just added my S-JAWs and R-JAWS metrics to their starter and reliever pages, and there's already a ton of numbers there and the potential for confusion.

Jeffrey

2:28

Thanks for holding this Jay. Curious which current Astros you think have the best shot for the hall (given scandal and all)?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

If we're talking 2021 Astros I'd say 1. Greinke, 2. Correa (much further to go) 3. Altuve (less far to go but needs to remain very strong). Alex Bregman is trending way down given his 2020-21 performances

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

2:30

Given Ken Rosenthal's statement that he did not vote for Sosa in part because he had no chance of election and Rosenthal did not want to throw away a vote, how much do you think HOF voters employ strategic voting?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I think it definitely comes into play when you're nearing 10 candidates, though far moreso when it comes to peeling off a lost cause candidate than a shoo-in one. I know I've had similar thoughts regarding Sosa and others when it comes to my own ballots, virtual and actual.

TomBruno23

2:33

Recent HOF events have really made me realize what a career Willie Davis enjoyed.

Jay Jaffe

2:36

16h in JAWS, over 2,500 hits, yet he never even appeared on a ballot! Kids:: don't make three errors in a single inning in a World Series game that happens to be the last one Sandy Koufax ever pitches, or this could be you

Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer

2:36

Damnit!

Jay Jaffe

2:36

just gutted when it comes to that one.

Guest

2:36

A while back you mentioned the possibility of including standard deviation bars at each positions WAR/WAR7/JAWS numbers. Is that still a potential addition? I feel like it'd be helpful for giving context to each players' case, especially in the case of players who fall below the median.

Jay Jaffe

2:38

for space reasons and other considerations, I'm not really pushing for them to be on B-Ref anytime soon, but here's a screenshot from Excel that may shed some light. These numbers don't take into account the recent Era Committee honorees.

2:39

2:40

As you can see, there's a fair bit of variation when it comes to the medians and SDs at each position, but I guess that's the point

Colb

2:40

What future changes do you want to see with the Hall? Personally, I want more player/former player input on induction. It seems like everyone has been frustrated with the BBWAA for years now and more player input might help.

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