JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/17/21

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Jay Jaffe

2:42

It's funny, the BBWAA just elected a record number of honorees — 22 over a seven-year span — and yet there's frustration, which I'll chalk up to the fact that some candidates still didn't get over the hump during that span.

2:43

As for more player input, dear baby Jesus Alou has everybody forgotten the lesson of the expanded Veterans Committee?

2:44

When the living Hall of Famers — the vast majority of which were players — were allowed to vote in 2003, '05, '07, and '09, nobody got in, nobody came even close to getting in, and that wasted time ran out the clock on honoring Ron Santo, Minnie Miñoso, Marvin Miller, and Dick Allen in their lifetimes.

2:45

When Era Committees (and before that Veterans Committees) that are made up of about 50% players do vote, they've mainly been pulling in guys far below standards.

2:46

The thing I'd mainly like to see is either a binary ballot or no limitation on the number of spots a voter can use.

2:47

Also, expanded Era Committees that dilute the impact of the obvious potential for cronyism. Put 32 voters in a room and it matters less that Tony La Russa is there with Harold Baines.

Mark

2:48

The Hall of Fame is supposed to be a celebration of baseball, or at least promote discussion about baseball. If the steroid guys get in, it's still a discussion of baseball. If Schilling gets in it becomes a discussion of right wing politics which has nothing to do with baseball. There's enough of that in the news already. That's why I wouldn't vote for Schilling: baseball provides some much needed escapism.

Jay Jaffe

2:50

There's a lot to talk about as far as Schilling and baseball, but it has been eclipsed by his malignant persona. Baseball provides escapism, but do not forget that a whole lot of political stuff has an impact on what you're seeing. Those taxpayer funded ballparks, for example, or the longstanding exclusion of players of color, to use a couple of obvious examples. The game does not take place in a vacuum.

Stay Safe

2:50

Hey Jay, no question this week, just sending good vibes your way with the Covid rate increase in NY. Hope you and your family/close ones are staying safe.

Jay Jaffe

2:51

Thank you, and this goes right back to everyone out there as well — this has been a jarring week.

2:52

I'm vaxed and boosted and so is my wife. My daughter hits the 2-week mark on her second vax tomorrow. So we're pretty well protected, but one of my closest pals, who's similarly vaxed to the max, had a breakthrough infection this week and now 2/4 in his household are sick. Thankfully, it's mild, but just when we were hoping for a more normal winter where we could at least dine indoors, there are new curveballs being thrown our way.

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas

2:53

Do Bonds and Clemens get into the HOF before they pass away?

Jay Jaffe

2:53

I think so, but it's going to take awhile.

Leopold "Butters" Stotch

2:53

Given that the Early Baseball Committee only elected two of the seven Black professionals (whether Negro-League-associated or pre-Negro League), do you think there will be any momentum for a repeat of something like the 2006 committee on Black baseball? It seems like it'd make sense to do a repeat; a lot of the research since 2006 has revealed that there are plenty of deserving players on the outside, and trying to get them all in in one fell swoop seems like it makes some sense.

Jay Jaffe

2:55

I highly doubt it would be another full clearinghouse like that but I'm hopeful that the Hall will listen to the 42 for 21 Committee and the voices of other experts who say that this level of interest and scholarship when it comes to Black baseball shouldn't be squandered, and that there will be another vote taken on such candidates before 10 years are up.

2:56

Here's my podcast spot with the 42 for 21 Committee folks (Sean Gibson, Gary Gillette, and Ted Knorr) from last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-42-for-21/

2:57

and here's Effectively Wild talking to Sean and Ted https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1785-what-is-this...

Strategic Balloting

2:57

Actually, one quick q - I don’t put much stock in many writers suddenly changing minds on Bonds/Clemens in their last year, but: what are the chances enough writers flip but choose to not make their ballots public as a way of sheltering themselves from criticism? Likelihood of 10 being “could happen” to 1 being “not a snowball’s chance in hell”

Jay Jaffe

2:58

2.5. I can see some people doing it, but not the ~50 needed to flip so they get to 75%.

Flanny

3:00

Among the current under 30 stars, who would you say are the best bets to make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ten-position-players-who-have-most-helped-.... Correa, Mookie, Bryce, Manny, not necessarily in that order

Ben (not Clemens)

3:00

Thanks for doing this chat Jay. I really enjoyed your Jimmy Rollins article. I'm a Phillies fan who was a teenager around the time he debuted, so I'm absolutely biased, but what impact do you think culture or personality could/does have on HOF voting? Specifically regarding Rollins and how he was the heart and soul of his team for such a long time and pretty universally beloved in Philly

Jay Jaffe

3:03

Thanks, I enjoyed writing about Rollins because I had done so mainly in passing during his career. I don't think the heart-and-soul stuff goes very far in HOF voting unless it's accompanied by strong numbers, and I don't think Rollins has particularly strong ones, but it might well be enough to keep him on the ballot for a few years or even the whole run (he's at 6.7% through 27 ballots).

Key Flaw

3:03

Should the Spink Award be voted on by players? Seems only fair.

Jay Jaffe

3:03

Should patients perform brain surgery on neurosurgeons?

3:05

That's an extreme example, and I don't mean to equate writing about baseball to brain surgery, but by and large most players don't, or say they don't, read what's written about them. So I don't see where they're qualified to vote.

Also, it's no longer the Spink Award, it's the BBWAA Career Excellence Award; the Spink name was stripped because he was pretty retrograde when it came to integration

WinTwins0410

3:05

Jay, I know each year's (or two years', or five years') Era committee is its own discrete "being," so to speak, in terms of composition of any year's committee of 16 voters. But to your eyes, does it seem like the election of Jim Kaat portends Tommy John's eventual induction? Or am I reading too much into the result from one single committee that had several of Kaat's former teammates (Schmidt, Carew) plus a fellow who won just one more game than Kitty (Fergie)? Arguing in the other direction, I know, is the fact that Kaat had come close on several previous Era committees, whereas John never has, and the fact that Kaat has been very actively involved, front-and-center, in the baseball community all these years, whereas TJ really hasn't been. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

Kaat's election helps John, but even so, like you say, they are discrete committees, and we're probably expecting too much if we think one committee's decisions are predictive of another's.

Also, and this was very weird: Carew was announced as being on the Golden Days committee but ended up not making it to the vote; he was replaced by Bert Blyleven, who was also serving on the Early Days committee. Even the Hall's press release had Carew among the voters, but supposedly the switch was revealed on the post-results Zoom interviews with Kaat and Oliva. John Shea wrote a bit about it

Teddy

3:10

Any thoughts on whether Berkman was robbed of getting voted in? His career stats are almost shockingly good, always seemed underrated

Jay Jaffe

3:10

I wouldn't say he was robbed.

3:11

He was a decent enough candidate that on a ballot with less traffic he probably would have gotten at least 5%, but he had fewer than 2,000 hits and retired at 37 and those players tend not to get in.

20longyears

3:12

For a few years, it seemed as though Andrew McCutchen was very possibly on a path for the Hall, and then his skills took a sudden, sharp nosedive that removed all chances of it. Are there other position players you can think of whose careers followed such a trajectory?

olethros

3:13

Holy moly, some of those SDs are huge! I was thinking that anyone within 1 SD of the average would have a pretty strong argument but looks like that's not true for most positions.

Jay Jaffe

3:16

Right? I think it's important to remember we're dealing with smaller samples at each position and that 1 SD ends up being A LOT. I might be more inclined to point out, say, where the line for a 40th percentile honoree is, since I think there are more likely to be considerations outside of WAR and JAWS that still get those guys over the hump.

Don

3:17

Do Hall voters communicate with each other about who they plan to vote for?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

From what I've been told by multiple committee participants, no, at least not while the committee is in session.

3:19

They're not supposed to be coordinating with each other, but it's probably a stretch to think that they're not sharing thoughts over cocktails at some point ahead of time.

Guest

3:19

Not a Mets fan but any feeling the Utley slide might affect his HOF chances?

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat