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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 12/2/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat. Some minor technical stuff on this end so bear with me for a  couple minutes
2:06
Sorry about that _ the chat wasn't showing up on the home page banner, which make it harder for site visitors to know it's happening. Anyway, now that it's up, let's get going. I'm rollin(s) on my BBWAA ballot profiles (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-jimm...), had Billy Wags yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-bill...). Hoped to get the Carlos Beltrán one out this week but there's so much ground to cover and more care needs to be taken to get it to where I want it.
2:07
and dug into the potential for cronyism now that the Committee voters have been announced https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-naming-the-era-committee-members-the-ha...
Anyway, on with the show
Kyle B
2:08
even if Judge re-signs with the Yanks, do you think they’ll still pursue Turner, Bogaerts or another star?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
I don't think they'll pursue either of those infielders regardless of what Judge does, as they seem dead set on giving Volpe a shot soon, with Peraza as an intermediate and IKF as a fallback. I would expect them to try to figure out some kind of big move to fill the Judgeless void but probably something more along the lines of trading for a corner bat. As to whom, man, i dunno.
Whaleboy
2:12
Verlander: There have been two pitchers maintain an elite level of production in their 40's (Clemens and Ryan) 3 years 130 M seems insane to me. Please tell me he has to settle for a 2 year deal.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
There are more examples than just those two in terms of their 40s – Randy Johnson, Phil Niekro, Warren Spahn — but I get what you're saying. I don't think that JV will get a Scherzer like deal in terms of dollars but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets something beyond a straight 2-year deal, with a vesting option or a mutual option or something.
Joe Morgan
2:15
Love your HOF stuff but disappointed in your support for ever more marginal Hall candidates  like Billy Wagner.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I go where my analysis leads me, and my analysis says Wagner is the best reliever outside the Hall.  As you're not the actual Joe Morgan, I don't really care what you think, but  I didn't really care what the real Joe Morgan thought either so take comfort in that.
Marcellus Wallace
2:16
Any final predictions for the committee voting on Sunday? Think it's McGriff or bust?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I'd say that McGriff getting elected is the most likely outcome, particularly after seeing the committee makeup. It wouldn't surprise me either way if Schilling gets in or not, but it might determine whether I go to Cooperstown this summer.
Nelson
2:18
Will signing with the Astros have any effect on Jose Abreu's Hall of Fame chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
Dan Szymborski made the case that Abreu should draw Hall consideration (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/should-yuli-gurriel-and-jose-abreu-be-hall...) but I'm not sold, as this is the *National* Baseball Hall of Fame, not the international one or the Cuban one. Voters aren't tasked with evaluating the pre-MLB careers of Japanese stars; Ichiro will be elected based on what he did in the majors. i get that there's a point of view that Abreu was *prevented* from playing in the majors, likening him to players who fell on the wrong side of the color line or missed time due to military service, but even so, we're talking about a guy stringing together a bunch of 2-4 WAR seasons since his MLB rookie year, with his MVP year coming in the pandemic season, and I just don't see how I'm gonna come around to supporting that ahead of numerous guys who spent their full careers here
ram
2:23
Thoughts on Utley for the hall? Big peak guy and better numbers than some other second basemen already enshrined
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
Wrote about him here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/retiring-mauer-and-utley-both-worthy-of-co... and anticipate including him on my ballot next year along with Joe Mauer and Adrian Beltré
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:24
At what point do we seriously consider saying that Kershaw's career is greater than Koufax's? Higher career WAR, lower ERA, more IP, more Ks....
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Some people are already willing to say it. Even Bill Plaschke https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2022-04-30/dodgers-clayto.... What Koufax did from 1962-66 was incredible, but it's important to understand how favorable the conditions were for him; Dodger Stadium was Death Valley for hitters in the early 1960s. Kershaw has been successful against better competition under more adverse conditions for much longer.
Thorn
2:27
What has to happen for Pete Rose to be inducted?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
  1. Rob Manfred would need to be replaced by That Shouty Guy Who Wants to Give You Gambling Tips During Drive Time
  2. Reinstate Rose
  3. Wheelbarrows full of gambling winnings to the Hall Board of Directors
  4. Favorable Era Committee named
  5. elected.
2:29
I think Hell will freeze over first.
2:30
Speaking of which, one of the great
"Hell will freeze over first" stories recirculated with the death of Gaylord Perry, who was a childhood favorite of mine and a player I'm hoping to pen a tribute to even amid the chaos of the winter meetings and my regular HOF coverage
2:31
Did it really happen? As John Thorn would say, "It's too good to check," but some have nonetheless. At one point in 2002 Snopes.com did a partial debunking, mainly on the inconsistencies of the date of Dark's statement in various retellings by Perry and others, but more recently, supporting evidence came to light. It may or may not have happened as told, but at the very least the timing of Perry's homer is correct.
copecru81
2:31
Mookie already has more WAR than Tony Oliva and almost as much as Enos Slaughter, both RF HOFers. Will he get in the HOF before Dwight Evans and Bobby Abreu who have more WAR? (but less WAR7)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
Mookie is most likely on his way to Cooperstown. I think Evans will be there some day but I'm less optimistic about Abreu.
Insert Witty Name Here
2:33
Great piece on Rollins.  I think one thing that gets missed about his MVP year was that he got 778 plate appearances! I don’t know what to do with that information, but obviously more PA = more counting stats.  Utley should have gotten that MVP methinks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
Wow, i don't think I realized the 778 which is in fact the single-season record, breaking one held by another Phillie  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/PA_season.shtml
2:35
But yes, count me as someone who thinks Utley was robbed, albeit moreso by Ryan Howard the next year if you look at the WARs.
John
2:35
Can you envision an active player clearing all the hurdles to be HOF worthy if he retired today, then performing so badly in subsequent years he becomes no longer HOF worthy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
not really. I mean, we just saw Joey Votto post a negative WAR which didn't help him but it's not like he's going to do 3 years of Chris Davis since his contract is up at the end of 2023 and he'd probably have the good sense to retire if he starts off very very badly
Anon21
2:37
If the Braves strike out on all the free agent shortstops, what infield alignment would you expect next year? Seems like neither Albies nor Grissom have the glove for short, and Arcia probably lacks an everyday bat.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
I could see them going with some kind of Grissom/Arcia arrangement in the short term, or maybe trading for Willy Adames
DrSticks fan
2:39
Why do you think the projections are down on triston mckenzie when he seems like he has so much room to improve?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
because progressions are fairly conservative, regression is a powerful force, and his track record for being a frontline pitcher is very short. I don't think a 4.12 ERA median projection is bad, you just have to remember it's right in the center of outcomes that vary quite widely because of the limited data we have and the inevitability of pitcher injuries.
Mike
2:41
Any value to signing reported good clubhouse guys like Santana and Choi?  Of course, you want them to perform well too, but even if they are one-year stop gaps, their influence on what are hopeful Pirate future cornerstones could be of benefit past just this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
to a point there's value in those types of signings, sure, but not if they're taking playing time from a more deserving player — and with Santana, i think he already should be considered a bench guy rather than a starter.
Guille
2:43
Hi Jay, longtime follower from Uruguay here. The Celestes just were eliminated from the Fifa World Cup even when winning 2-0. So tell me something upbeat about the Yankees, can you?
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