JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 12/2/22

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 12/2/22

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Jay Jaffe

2:47

Hey man! I thought of you today while watching Uruguay lose that heartbreaker – they've been my default World Cup rooting interest (besides the US) since that great run in 2010 with Diego Forlan.

As for the Yankees, I do still think they're going to land Judge, and I wouldn't be surprised ifthey came away with another starter who's a midrotation-or-better guy. Rodon? Verlander? Taijuan? Somebody to push Germán back to a swingman role.

Jason

2:48

Hi jay-- die hard brewers/baseball fan here. Question-- what's a fan like me to do. I see all the big-time FAs "priced out" of milwaukee. I see us trade hader. I see our owner cry poor. Yet the rich teams get richer, the CBA did nothing to stop it and they just renewed Tony Clark. What's a fan like me supposed to think? Enjoy the game and never see a ring?

Jay Jaffe

2:51

The Brewers are a team that has done a very good job of punching above their weight in recent years thanks to their ability to develop pitching, but i understand why you'd feel like they're heading for a downturn given the Hader trade, the late-season slide, Stearns stepping aside, etc. I don't know what to tell you other than the fact that they've generally been a well-run team under Attanasio's ownership and if it's not 2023 then I at least like their odds of being competitive sooner than most teams in similar positions

Guest

2:51

Kevin Brown’s clubhouse - HOF quality players whose jerkiness kept them out. Who else would you include? Curt Schilling, Dick Allen, Jeff Kent?

Jay Jaffe

2:53

those are very different guys and I'd be hesitant to lump them together.

Ben

2:53

Why does Dipoto refuse to spend money? If there was ever a time for the Mariners to add payroll, it's now.

Jay Jaffe

2:54

110 times out of 100 — you read that right — it's not the GM refusing to spend money, it's the owner who writes the checks

2:55

and you're talking about a team that just laid out two $100-million plus contracts for pitchers in the last year, signed their star rookie to a massive deal, made a nice trade for a corner outfielder, and ... It's December, and nearly all of the big free agents are still out there. I think you're off base

Sam

2:56

Kodai Senga has never thrown 200 innings in his life, which seems sort of unusual for big time starters coming from Japan. do you think he's closer to a 5 than a 1-2 starter?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

Japanese teams tend to use 6-man rotations, and they haven't had a single pitcher reach 200 innings since 2018, as best I can tell.

3:00

As for Senga, i think he's more likely to be a 3 than a 1 or 5. Ben Clemens' Top 50 Free Agent writeup is worth a look https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

Phil

3:00

As you no doubt have seen, a participant in the ESPN "Hot Stove Survey" floated the idea of Tatis being traded. Does this seem remotely non-preposterous to you? Can you think through what that might look like--what kind of team might be interested, how SD or their counterpart would think about an appropriate return, etc.? I can't imagine it will happen but it seems sort of fun to contemplate.

Jay Jaffe

3:02

it would not surprise me if this comes to pass after he gets back on the field and shows that he's still star caliber; i can imagine the Padres deciding they'd rather keep Soto — or make a run at doing so — rather than Tatis, but I don't see that as imminent.

3:04

as to what it would look like, man, who knows. The return would be limited by the risk in involved in taking on $300M+

ram

3:04

Do you think the WBC could ever bring the same fanfare as the world cup?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

No, but then the WC has like an 80-year head start and the sport is the top one in so many of those countries.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

3:05

Who should be the big names on the next Veteran's ballot (which I believe will be non-players only)?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

With Bochy and Baker both employed, I'd expect managers Piniella and Leyland plus Sandy Alderson to lead the ballot, with Steinbrenner on there again as well.

Wise Guy

3:06

Bear with you?? This is why you need to carry pepper spray on your person.

Jay Jaffe

3:06

Shirley, you jest!

B-Wags

3:07

Always appreciate your work, and always read the articles over the years both to reflect on the careers of the players and a recap/update on where they stand on the current ballot. Case in point - B. Wagner. Happy to read & better understand the RJaws, and glad that's available/eases the computer load. That said...I can't let it go without saying that one (small) part of me misses the "gWAR" table, if only for the brief associative joy it brings.

Jay Jaffe

3:10

Thanks and LOL. I wish Nate Silver would update his GWAR rankings (see https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pi... if you don't know what I'm on about) after introducing them in 2017. I felt that without knowing where Jansen, Kimbrel and Chapman stand half a decade later that it didn't make sense to keep including that section in Wagner's profile because the rankings might differ.

Marshall

3:10

Joe Posnanski recently wrote that he has a ranking of the top 100+ eligible players not in the hall. Do you have a similar list? And how many additional players would you personally induct from that list?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

I have a mental top 10-15 at any given time but I don't keep a master list; it's difficult enough to stay on top of my workload and abreast of the news and my Hall coverage without spending time on subjective rankings. I'm glad it works for Joe, though! He seems to have a lot of fun with that stuff.

Honkus Wagner

3:12

Do you think having Bonds and Clemens off the ballot this year will open up opportunities to any specific fringe candidates?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

Possibly Wagner and Sheffield, who might be harder to convince voters regarding once they've already taken up Rolen and Helton as the ballot has thinned out in recent years. Maybe Andruw as well.

btownfritz

3:15

The Seattle Mariners 2023 opening day second baseman is______?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Julio Cruz.

3:16

I kid of course. I can see a Jean Segura reunion

Phil

3:16

HOF question (or related set of questions): do you personally regard the unanimous vote as a big deal? Do you think the electorate has changed in such a way as to make it more likely, and if so, is it Pujols or bust, or would someone like Beltre have a shot?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

I don't think it's really a big deal — it's kind of like watching a perfect game bid. You hope to see one, you get wrapped up in the suspense of following one, but if something ridiculous happens to prevent it, like some clown not voting for Jeter, you just shrug your shoulders and applaud whoever it is getting in with 99% or whatever. I

3:20

I'm sure some stick in the muds will hide behind anonymity to prevent Pujols and Beltré from being unanimous because they see themselves as Hall gatekeepers and probably think somebody fell down on the job regarding Rivera.

No question

3:20

I don't particularly care who makes the HOF, but I really enjoy the candidate profiles. They remind me of people and seasons I've largely forgotten about. So thanks for them.

Jay Jaffe

3:23

Thanks! I enjoy writing them even when they're about guys who have very little or no chance. I don't plan to include Jimmy Rollins or Torii Hunter on my ballot, for example, but I enjoyed writing those pieces and getting to understand where they came from. I found myself thinking about the Jake Peavy one from last year multiple times in recent days, what his family had been through and what I learned about him, and I'm really proud of the Wagner profile. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-jake...

LaSchelle Tarver

3:23

What’s the appropriate level of skepticism for a pitcher under 6 feet tall?

Jay Jaffe

3:26

Some skepticism but it shouldn't necessarily lead to dismissal. I'd base my evaluation on stuff and performance, with height and mechanics coloring those evaluations but not overwhelming them

Matt (Oceanside)

3:26

Hi Jay, just curious, who is your favorite hall of famer? Also, even if Shohei only has a 10 year career, that has to be enough right? I mean Koufax has a weak total career WAR, but there is no doubt in most people's minds (mine included) that he is a Hall of Famer....precedence has already been set, yes?

Jay Jaffe

3:30

I can't say I have just one. Outside of the obvious ones — Hank Aaron, my first baseball hero, and Jackie Robinson, whose courage and importance can't be understated — I have great affection for the guys who are there that became my causes, and rallied from low percentages or being overlooked to getting in. Santo, Blyleven, Raines, Edgar, Walker, Trammell, Mussina, Miñoso... I started collecting the plaque postcards of "my guys" last year. All of those guys take up significant real estate in The Cooperstown Casebook.

Phil

3:30

I think you've demonstrated pretty well that any argument against Billy Wagner that doesn't depend on the jury-rigged save rule is just an argument against pretty much any reliever below Rivera-level stupendousness.

Jay Jaffe

3:32

Thanks. I think the door has to be kept ajar for relievers becuase it's damn hard to maintain greatness. Just look at the way Chapman, Kimbrel, and Jansen are trending; if they're not getting in and Wagner's not getting in, then the next one might not even be playing in the majors yet

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