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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/20/18
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Tony
12:51
Scott Rolen's candidacy is one of the weirder ones I can remember, where he seems to have pretty widespread support from writers hypothetically, but not in actual votes. Even someone like Rosenthal said he felt Rolen deserved a vote but then didn't vote him anyway. Is Rolen going to end up being one of those candidates, like Alan Trammell, where the writers keep kicking the can and by the time they realize they've kicked the can too far, it'll be too late to elect him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
The ballot logjam remains a problem, and will to at least some extent so long as Bonds, Clemens, Mussina and Schilling clog it by getting 50% + without getting in. Rolen will still be eligible past that point (except for Mussina, they're done with the 2022 ballot, while Rolen is eligible through 2027) so I wouldn't panic just yet.
Travis
12:53
This is probably a case-by-case basis, and we all know how Joe Morgan feels, but what are the players feelings about (specifically) Bonds and Clemens? If their percentage increases should not make it to 75%, how would they be regarded by a jury of their peers in the Today's Game Committee?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Good question. The committees are chosen by the Hall itself, and I think it's pretty clear that they know how to count votes.
bb
12:55
Any idea why the Lorena Martin investigation is taking so long?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
Because they want to do a thorough job?

Guys, I know it's a slow offseason but please get a grip. The MLB offseason news cycle does not owe you anything in the way of entertainment or instant gratification.
Dub
12:56
here for the mandatory chat, is lunch provided?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Alas, gotta bring your own. Hell, I've reached the point where I didn't order in time for my meal to get here by the time I cut out in ~30 minutes.
Scott
12:57
Although they were vastly different players, could we view Ted Simmons as the Richie Ashburn of catchers? In other words, a great player who was overshadowed by multiple contemporaries who were among the greatest ever at their positions.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
Not a bad analogy but Ashburn retired at 35 — as noted above, not a great strategy for getting to Cooperstownn — when it appeared he could still play (121 OPS+ and 2.1 WAR in his final season) where as Simmons was done as done can be while playing at age 38.
Metsy
12:59
How far away is Keith Hernandez from being a hall of famer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
He really struggled for support on the writers' ballot. I think the nontraditional profile for a first baseman hurt him, as did... wait for it... retiring at age 36.
1:01
I think he'd do well in front of a small committee, but he's gotta get on one of those ballots first, and thus far that hasn't happened. Grrr
Pat's Bat
1:01
I noticed on Ryan Thibadeaux's hall tracker that Clemens had received one more vote so far than Bonds.  Clemens has consistently gotten a couple more votes every year.  Why on earth would someone vote for Clemens but not Bonds too?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
it's a weird bit of hair splitting, for sure. That said, Bonds did fail an MLB-administered amphetamine test in 2006, which was not supposed to be public knowledge (the track for a first test was treatment and counselling, while only a second positive resulted in suspension). So maybe it's that. https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/failure-leaves-testy-barry...
Sam
1:04
If Mike Trout’s career went sideways and he had five consecutive years of a .200/.300/.400 slash, is he still a HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
Probably, yes
1:06
I mean, the guy is already 7th in JAWS and above the CF standard, and he'll pass DiMaggio for 6th sometime in April. Two MVP awards and 4 other times when he was runner-up, it's pretty clear that he's already got the dominance that voters seek.
Hank
1:07
Putting aside the PED suspension,  how many more good/decent seasons would Robinson Can need to be a HOF'r?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
He's already 7th in JAWS, above the 2B standard, with great traditional stats for a 2B.

But he pissed it all away, literally.
Matt
1:09
Reading a River Ave Blues article about Pettitte. His numbers are strikingly similar to....Mark Buehrle. That seems strange to me...do you have the career/peak breakouts for the two? Pettitte never had a sustained "peak" - and neither did Buehrle - but I'm curious if Pettitte's best 7 is better than Buehrle's.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
they're two spots apart in the JAWS rankings. 60.3/34.1/47.2 for Pettitte (90th in JAWS), 59.3/35.9/47.6 for Buehrle (88th), so slight edge on peak for MB; it's worth noting that he had 6 top-10 finishes in WAR to Pettitte's 3.  They have the same career ERA+ (117) in innings totals that are within like 30-something of each other. And of course both lefties.
Taylor T
1:12
Who do you predict to win the NL East, and do you think it will be close?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
Let's wait and see how they look when the shopping is finished. Seems silly to guess now before Philadelphia makes its big moves and the Braves, Mets and Nationals finish what they're doing.
Individual 1
1:13
Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, aren't these the choices Farhan Zaidi should be making?  One year contracts to flip for prospects at the all star break.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Did Zaidi have $20 million lying around to commit to those two? Did those guys want to uproot their residences and families twice in one year — for Harvey, the second time in a row? It takes two to tango, tiger.
tb.25
1:17
As the public HOF expert, what's been your feel on Bonds/Clemens this year? Loved your write ups - I mean from what you've heard from voters, or seen in articles, etc.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
I suspect they'll gain a few points and clear 60%, but I don't see major breakthroughs in their support. Each has only netted one vote from a returning voter out fo 73 ballots published thus far, though they're both 4-for-4 from first-timers. They need at least some segment of those who haven't supported them before to change their minds, and I think some voters are determined to wait them out.
LPFan
1:20
Is Ichiro a first ballot HOF or his later years hurt him? Or is he not even a HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
are you kidding? the guy is beloved throughout the game. first ballot. 95% plus.
1:23
Sorry, i just pulled a q virtually identical to one I answered 3 weeks ago.
Guest
1:23
What do we think of the fact that Steamer has Luke voit projected with a higher wOBA than Max Muncy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
Man, I was impressed by Voit when he came to the Yankees. I don't think we should be surprised at the projections liking him more. He's a year younger and didn't have ~250 PA worth of MLB struggles before last year.
Jake
1:25
Who gets in first (if at all): Barry Bonds or Bobby Grich?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
Bonds. Gonna be a long time before Grich gets in, I'm afraid.
Oliver
1:25
Do you think Joe Kelly will be a success at the Dodgers? And will the Red Sox regret not signing him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
1. Eh, like most relievers on multiyear deals, he'll probably be worth the money in 1 or 2 years out of 3, which isn't saying much; $25M/3 more or less means that he's worth it if he's got 1.0 WAR, which isn't that high a bar. if the Red Sox miss him, they're doin it rong.
Guest
1:27
How do you see Rivera's place on the ballot affecting Billy Wagner? Seemed like it might've hurt him with the early ballot but I see him picking up more steam. Smith and Hoffman are another factor.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
I think there are voters out there who have been waiting for the jam to clear long enough to throw Wagner a vote, but the presence of an obvious 1st-ballot guy doesn't make that any easier. I do think that the elections of Smith and Hoffman benefit Wagner in the long run though. Doing Billy's profile for tomorrow, I think.
Jeff
1:31
Think the Angels do something cool like sign Keuchel and trade for Kluber? They seem to have the prospects for Kluber with Adell
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