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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/20/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
I would be shocked if they traded Adell, and I'd be doubly shocked if they were so aggressive as to acquire both Keuchel and Kluber. I think they're treading water.
Mike
1:32
If Greg Maddux unretired and re-joined the Braves, would his HOF placque be taken down? Would he face another HOF election when his “second” career ended?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
Nobody has ever tested this but no, that plaque isn't coming down. It might get revised if his accomplishments merited it.
Puckryan
1:32
Who's the next non-HOF deserving player will be the next non-deserving HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
The next guy to get in who's well below the JAWS baseline might well be Fred McGriff, on the 2022 ballot. This presupposes that the 2012 Golden Days ballot will be such a cluster**** that the near-misses from last time like Kaat and Oliva will be similarly thwarted. I see the arguments for both but their JAWS is well below standard.
mike
1:34
Has MLB ever had the Hall set up a traveling museum? Cooperstown is a ridiculous spot for it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
Yes, the Hall did a traveling show called Baseball As America, which I saw in both NY and DC in 2002-2003, IIRC. Was very cool stuff.

And I like the Hall where it is, thanks. Cooperstown and upstate NY in general is a great destination — gorgeous natural beauty up there, and a lovely, baseball-mad small town. If you think it's ridiculous, that suggests you've never been, and I urge you to remedy that.
Michael J
1:37
When choosing between Harper and Machado, if I were a GM I’d take Manny to age better over the course of the decade because of his defense and his increase in hitting every single year.  While with Harper, you’re betting on two seasons (2015 and 2017?) in which he hit like Trout and the defense is already not looking too hot.  As a Dodger fan, I would love Harper, but part of me would wish they could re-sign Manny and just figure out the infield later.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
All else being equal, you'd want the guy playing the more difficult position as the starting point, but I do think that Harper, despite that disadvantage and the streakier nature of his career, is the more marketable player thanks to Manny's, uh, reputation, which is probably a consideration when you're spending that kind of coin.
Josh
1:39
If I were in a position to fill out a HoF ballot, I would feel obligated to vote for 10 guys, especially on a ballot this stacked.  I wouldn't be living up to my job or responsibility otherwise.  How is this not a more common sentiment?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
We've seen record rates of 10-deep ballots and votes per ballot in recent years, not necessarily in 2018 but several times in the past few years — not to mention the largest 5-year swell of BBWAA-elected honorees. The evidence suggests this is a very common sentiment.
N
1:41
What do the Cubs need to do this offseason to stay competitive in a strong division?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
Spend money.
Rockie Dangerfield
1:41
If you could have MLB Network televise one additional league, which would you choose?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:44
La Liga. Every four years during World Cup time I swear that I'll become a regular soccer viewer if I knew what channel it was on. EPL has never hooked me, but I've enjoyed what I've seen from Spain.

Of course if we're talking baseball leagues it's probably NPB for caliber of play, though the fireworks of KBO might make that the better entertainment value.
Puckryan
1:44
With DeGrom winning the CY with 10 wins but dominating sabr stats, do you foresee a day when HOF voting looks at more of the sabr stats rather than reaching particular milestones? And is that why Baines got in? Thanks
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:45
I think the deGrom and Baines votes are polar opposites when it comes to the impact of advanced stats. The Baines vote is a reaction to their impact on the BBWAA's voting. It's a bunch of insiders saying Tell Your Statistics to Shut Up, which is rich.
Brian CashGod
1:46
Isn't the slow offseason kind of a huge story in itself? If FAs aren't coming off the board because teams aren't offering the valuations players think they should (used to) receive, that really doesn't bode well for long-term labor peace since the same stories offseason were supposedly a one-time thing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:54
I don't think this is as slow as last year's market. None of last year's three $100M+ deals were signed before February, where Corbin's was done before Xmas. We've got 2 other deals of $50M plus before Xxmas, where I think Santana's was the only one done by then (Wade Davis before the new year).

But bigger picture, the winter market isn't the same as it was a few years ago, and the current CBA is a big reason why. Whether that's going to lead to a work stoppage remains to be seen, but I don't think the MLBPA has the teeth for it.
The Amish
1:54
Are you from Utah?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:54
Grew up in SLC from the time I was three until graduating high school (1973-1988). Parents still live there.
1:55
OK folks, lots of good questions still in the queue but my time slot has run out and I've gotta get some lunch. Thanks for stopping by. Not sure yet whether I'll chat next week but find me on Twitter and we'll figure it out.
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