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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/10/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! Happy pitchers and catchers day to all, even if your team — those besides the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Giants, Braves, and Red Sox — reports tomorrow or Thursday instead of today
12:02
You can check that information here if you don't know. https://www.mlb.com/news/spring-training-2026-first-workout-dates
12:03
If you missed it, my latest piece was a tribute to a pair of rubber-armed lefties from the 1960s and '70s, namely Mickey Lolich (who passed away last week) and Wilbur Wood (who passed away in mid-January). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-300-a-tribute-to-the-ultra-durable-mic...
12:04
A few of you asked/requested I write about Wood but I was swamped by Hall of Fame coverage at the time so couldn't get to it but... well, Father Time remains undefeated.
12:06
Lolich is the third member of the Tigers for whom I've written a tribute during my time at FanGraphs after AL Kaline and Bill Freehan. From the 1968 Cardinals I also wrote up Lou Brock, Orlando Cepeda, and Bob Gibson when they passed. The World Series took place before I was born but I've got a pretty decent working knowledge of it.
12:07
anyway, next on my plate is a roundup of some smaller transactions as camps open. We'll see just who that contains when the bell rings. And now, on with the show...
Bubba
12:07
A general fangraphs request as a reader - what are all the projections?  We're very familiar with ZIPs because of Dan's work, and with Steamer because that feeds the depth charts.  But there's The Bat, The Bat X, Oopsy, and ATC.  Who makes them?  What's the difference between all of these?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
I admit I don't have a full handle on all of these and how they differ but The Bat ones are done by Derek Carty, OOPSY is done by contributor Jordan Rosenbaum (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yet-another-projection-system-a-brief-intr...) and ATC is done by Ariel Cohen.
12:10
and yes, ZiPS and Steamer are the ones that feed our Depth Charts.
Hazmat Corntail
12:11
Is the opener-follower set up here to stay, and do you foresee its use becoming more prevalent?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I think if anything opener usage is down, in terms of frequency, relative to when it was first popularized a few years ago, but the strategy is probably with us to stay. Teams are going to do what gives them the best chance to win, not necessarily what's the most appealing aesthetic presentation of the game, and sometimes there are advantages to be gleaned by doing openers and such.
Mike
12:14
Why do you think the projection systems are so much more positive about the Twins than fans? I mean, even Gleeman thinks they'll be bad. Not one comment on this site thinks they'll be close to what the numbers say.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I haven't dug into the Twins myself but eyeballing the roster, I'd guess that it's because the projection systems like the rotation a fair bit (it ranks 11th in our Depth Charts rankings https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP) as they've retained both Joe Ryan and Pablo López. Now, I don't think it's unreasonable to believe the Twins could trade one or both, even though they said in December they were keeping them. As the recent departure of team prez Derek Falvey illustrates, this organization appears to be a bit of a mess right now.
12:18
So i can't blame Twins fans on being even further down on them than the projections suggest. This is not at all gambling advice but I'd guess they finish below our current 80-win projection.
Potato
12:18
So what are your contributions to Prospect week? (hype!)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
My role is staying out of Meg and Matt's ways as they edit prospect week articles. I'll actually be skiing in Salt Lake City with my daughter and my father next week.
Mike Elias
12:20
Will I add another starting pitcher, and is it more likely via FA (Gallen, Bassitt, Giolito) or trade (Mayo, J. Jackson + prospects)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Mike my dude, you are going to be run out of town on a rail if you don't add starting pitching after last year's debacle, and it's entirely possible that by missing out on Framber et al, you're already cooked. I highly suggest getting your rich-as-hell owner to take a crack on at least one of those free agents. As I wrote i last week's roundup of free agent starters still available, both Zac Gallen and Justin Verlander have been on the O's radar https://blogs.fangraphs.com/february-free-agent-watch-frambers-off-the...
Lionelsmirk
12:23
Have the Blue Jays done enough to close the gap between them and LA? I thought they outplayed the Dodgers in the World Series but still ended up losing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
I don't think there really was a measurable gap between the Blue Jays and Dodgers — the World Series came down to some very random and unforeseen outcomes with things like IKF not getting a jump home, Kiké making an insane double play, Will Klein having the game of his life, Justin Dean making the right decision on a ball stuck in the fence...
12:28
The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox project to be the best teams in the AL East and it's all within the margins of error. I do think they could beef up that bullpen a bit more but I like most of what they did this winter
War2D2
12:30
Injust refreshed my open browser page and saw the Arizona seasonal banner. Little things like that really make my day. Thank all who are responsible for me!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
That's our director of engineering Sean Dolinar and his team to thank
Sirras
12:31
Suppose you're tasked with creating a new Brooklyn MLB team (and let's hand waive away the territory rights issues). What are some of your ideas for team names/branding given the Dodgers and Giants don't plan to rebrand?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
I'd look at the names of the amateur era teams from the 1860s, when Brooklyn was the capital of the nascent baseball world — a topic I've been a bit immersed in recently since  I was invited to blurb Thomas Gilbert's Death in the Strike Zone, a bio of James Creighton. His team was the Excelsiors, upstarts who challenged the Atlantics (the best team of the time) for the championship
12:36
Here's the info about Gilbert's book, which will publish next month. He'll be doing a book launch event at Green-Wood Cemetery, which is near me and is the final resting spot for Creighton, Henry Chadwick, and dozens of other 19th c. baseball luminaries.   https://godine.com/products/death-in-the-strike-zone-available-march-2...
The JAWS Boost
12:39
Who are you watching closely this year re: potential Hall of Fame cases? Who has a strong chance to give a big boost to their candidacy this year? (Thinking along the lines of upping a peak score to above 40.0, major milestones, etc.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
oh boy, there does seem to be a lot of guys. Very interested in Gerrit Cole's comeback from Tommy John surgery and Zack Wheeler from thoracic outlet surgery; whether Chris Sale has another star-caliber season in him; whether Carlos Correa can get back on track, potential rebounds from Jose Altuve and Nolan Arenado
Dave Kerwin
12:43
Would be interested to hear your thoughts on what may well be the conclusion of Andrew McCutchen’s playing career and where he ranks in the Hall of Very Good, if a HOF case feels very unlikely.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
what i wrote here very much still applies to Cutch https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep... and can also serve as a starter link if anyone wants to read up on most of the guys mentioned in the previous question. Change to ...part-i (pitchers and catchers) or ...part-ii (infielders) as needed
12:45
only about three typos in that response so i cleaned it up LOL
mmddyyyy
12:45
How do undrafted free agents find homes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
a lot of it comes down to guys whom teams scouted, whom they liked but weren't drafted for one reason or another. Might be some cases where being related to somebody in the organization or has local ties can factor in.
Clownings
12:48
What kind of leash will the Dodgers have with Roki Sasaki in the rotation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
Probably pretty long if he's serviceable but not terrible, though I'd expect his workload will be closely monitored and come sometime in September he might be bullpen-bound unless the Dodgers see him as one of their four postseason starters. A lot depends upon the health/availability of other starters and we know the Dodgers aren't going to push anyone too hard during the regular season.
Jack
12:50
Hey Jay, what are your thoughts of the Red Sox this season? I love the pitching, but do you think the offense can get it done?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
They look competitive but i have my questions about their collection of parts for 2B and 3B (Mayer, Durbin, IKF, Gonzalez) and think they should have used their outfield surplus to fortify something else on the roster
12:55
maybe a stronger upgrade in SP (though I liked the adds of both Suarez and Gray) or one of those infield spots. They probably should have signed Bregman but it was not surprising they didn't given their spending pattern from the last half-decade or so.
Guest
12:55
I find the winter olympics less interesting because the barriers to entry are so high. Like anyone able can run, but how many people could luge, if they even knew about it? Reasonable take, or am I a grump?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
from an egalitarian standpoint it's not unreasonable — so many of those sports require a ton of equipment and they all require training. But for those of us who grew up in cold-weather environments or merely appreciate watching people slide around on frozen water of some sort, and like the potential for crashing, they're a ton of fun.

Personally, I enjoy watching the Winter Olympics at a level that approximates to my watching the Dodgers in the World Series. And i was much closer to being able to ski a Men's Downhill or Super-Ga than to being able to hit a curveball.
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