JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 2/10/26

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 2/10/26

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Hazmat Corntail

12:59

How long of a leash would you give Dave Dombrowski at this point? The lineup construction hasn’t evolved, and the rotation has big questions

Jay Jaffe

1:01

he's 69 years old and under contract through next season. I probably wouldn't renew him beyond that and would probably start thinking about the transition, especially if things begin going south this year. I don't think it has to be abrupt but if it's clear at the All-Star break that this team is kaput, maybe they do a search for a successor in time for him/her to have input into next winter's business.

Still salty about Johan

1:01

Do you think the evolving standards on what it means to be a HOF SP will (or maybe it already has) meaningfully affect perception of pitchers of the late 90’s/early 2000’s?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

If we're talking meaningfully affect perception as in help them get into the Hall of Fame if they slipped through the cracks, that could take decades because of the Era Committee structure. But maybe we should be realizing how underappreciated some of those guys were

bringbackpologrounds

1:02

For HOF-voting purposes, is it reasonable to "mentally adjust" a player's WAR/JAWS due to their postseason play? For example, David Ortiz was a 55 WAR/45 JAWS player, but with 85 outstanding playoff games, is it fair to treat him as a 59 WAR/49 JAWS player? Just thinking about cases like Seager and Altuve down the road.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I don't have a perfect prescription for an exchange rate with regards to value and the postseason but I didn't have trouble thinking of Ortiz as about a ~50ish JAWS guy given the weight of his postseason accomplishments. That's more complicated with Altuve because of the trash can and such but I suspect hsi non-WAR stats will carry him to Coperstown regardless. We'll see where Seager's career takes him.

Sad braves fan

1:05

Spencer Schwellenbach was just announced to start the year on the 60 day IL. Does this increase the chances of Bassitt to ATL, or do you like Waldrep to get the opportunity to stick around?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

oof, a case of elbow schwelling... they were already said to be interested in Bassitt, now they almost certainly have to land him or another one of the top starters available.

souldougie

1:08

What is the earliest point in a player's career where they may start getting thought of as a potential HOF?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

For me, anything before 7 full seasons is mostly spitballing unless you're a Juan Soto or a Shohei Ohtani. Once I see where a guy is in terms of WAR7 (the rule of 40 — about 3/4 of eligible guys with a WAR7 of 40 wind up in the Hall), that's when I start thinking about whter they have a real chance.

Mike Elias

1:11

Ok, I'll push back on the AL East take. Baltimore is closer to Boston than either of those clubs are to New York and Toronto. Glance at the Sox infield compared to Baltimore's.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

you're right, the Orioles belong in the discussion. I don't see a big gap between the front four teams there because a lot is riding on how quickly and effectively Cole and Ródon are when they return from injuries. But I'd still rather have the Yankees' rotation than Baltimore's and don't think Elias (or maybe Rubenstein) has shown that they've absorbed last year's harsh lesson.

Pumpsie Green

1:15

Barring injuries to others, is there a path to 400ABs for Matt Shaw?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

If he hits, they'll find a spot for him. I'd think the Ballesteros/Austin platoon at DH — particularly the latter, as a righty like Shaw — is the most likely suspect to lose playing time to Shaw.

Guest

1:17

Do you recommend other books by Thomas Gilbert? I hadn't heard his name before, but I see that our library has several of his books.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

I absolutely loved How Baseball Happened. Reminded me of Lucy Sante's Low Life: Lures and Snares of Old New York, a lively account of 19th and early 20th century vice in NYC that I and all my friends read when we moved here in the mid-1990s.

1:20

Gilbert really has a way of bringing the rogues and rowdies of 19th century baseball to life.

Guest

1:23

Do you know much about the difference between Wheeler's thoracic outlet surgery and the kind that derailed Matt Harvey's career? From what you hear, is there a lot of confidence in his ability to make a full recovery or is there some uncertainty?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

I know Wheeler had veinous TOS while Harvey had neurogenic TOS (the most common, affecting the nerves), but beyond that I am blanking on specifics

Max

1:25

Obviously it's just rumors, but Hou seems to be focused on major league talent as a return for Paredes. I'm all for trying to win now, but might they be better off trying to fortify a pretty week farm system?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Since the Luhnow days, the Astros have never conceded a closing of their competitive window. They missed last year's playoffs on a tiebreaker so I'm not sure why anyone experts them to start backing off just now. If they're 10 or 20 games below .500 in July, their thinking might change but i expect them to remain in win-now mode

Chris

1:28

Who do you think makes the Brewers starting rotation? I feel like they have a lot of good young arms.

Jay Jaffe

1:31

They do! I expect Priester, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Patrick to all be part of it, with some allowances for lesser workloads for Woodruff, who hasn't thrown more than 67 innings in a season since 2022, and Misiorowski, who hasn't topped 120 innings in a season yet. So Sproat, Gasser, Henderson, and Harrison will probably all get their shots and I'm sure a lot will depend on who's healthy and effective in the spring. We have Henderson as the 5 right now but this all seems very fluid.

Guest

1:32

Mookie and Freddie... which team's cap do you think they're wearing when they enter Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Dodgers.

1:33

I'm sure there will be discussions regarding both players' choices but the circumstances of their exits from Boston and Atlanta and their subsequent success in LA suggests where these are headed.

Guest

1:33

Blake Snell has had about as weird a career as a pitcher can have. If he somehow wins a 3rd Cy Young, he's got to be a Hall of Famer even with a regular season WAR total that falls short of a typical HOF career, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Man, i do not at all know how that one is going to shake out but if there are 2-time winners outside the Hall, there can easily be a 3-timer outside, especially if his career is as spotty as Snell's

Guest

1:34

At this point, it would take a major change in perception for Stanton to miss out on the HOF. Do you think the Hall forces him to go in as a Marlin, given the vast discrepancy in WAR/stats generated there vs the Bronx? Because you have to figure he will want to go in with a Yankee cap

Jay Jaffe

1:35

I don't think it's going to take a major change for him to miss. I think he really needs 500 homers and some sustained production to get in, and if he does, he'll likely be doing so as a Marlin because of the MVP award

Natsfan26

1:36

How high are you on Harry Ford? Do you think he'll be the opening day starter at catcher?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

I like him but i think it's dicey that he starts the season as the #1 catcher as he's so new to the organization and has so little major league experience. I'd guess he's up early season. Brendan Gawlowski's writeup of the trade that sent him to Washington is worth a read https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-swap-a-ford-for-a-ferreri/

Sloth

1:38

As a fellow Brooklyn resident (& probably loosely your neighbor if you're near the big cemetery), whenever I see the idea of a third NYC team floated in a space like this— admittedly fan speculation and as non-binding as can be—I always feel the urge to say:
No, this city does not need another MLB team, and there is no place in this borough that needs the net negative changes to housing (whether prices, ugly redevelopment, or displacement); traffic; neighborhood architecture; etc. that a new sports team and stadium would bring. (All for private profit dressed in a veneer of "economic development" for the city.)

Jay Jaffe

1:38

I tend to agree and think somewhere in New Jersey would make more sense if there were to be a 3rd team in this market.

1:40

OK folks, it's time for me to call it. No chat from me next week as I'll be skiing. Thanks so much for stopping by, and don't be too hard on the reporters sharing the first crummy photos of spring training this week!

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